Forecasting and Operational Research:A Review

From its foundation, operational research (OR) has made many substantial contributions to practical forecasting in organizations. Equally, researchers in other disciplines have influenced forecasting practice. Since the last survey articles in JORS, forecasting has developed as a discipline with its own journals. While the effect of this increased specialization has been a narrowing of the scope of OR's interest in forecasting, research from an OR perspective remains vigorous. OR has been more receptive than other disciplines to the specialist research published in the forecasting journals, capitalizing on some of their key findings. In this paper, we identify the particular topics of OR interest over the past 25 years. After a brief summary of the current research in forecasting methods, we examine those topic areas that have grabbed the attention of OR researchers: computationally intensive methods and applications in operations and marketing. Applications in operations have proved particularly important, including the management of inventories and the effects of sharing forecast information across the supply chain. The second area of application is marketing, including customer relationship management using data mining and computer-intensive methods. The paper concludes by arguing that the unique contribution that OR can continue to make to forecasting is through developing models that link the effectiveness of new forecasting methods to the organizational context in which the models will be applied. The benefits of examining the system rather than its separate components are likely to be substantial

A supply chain performance analysis of a pull inspired supply strategy faced to demand uncertainties

International audienceVendor Managed Inventory (VMI) is currently seen as a short-term replenishment pull system. Moreover, VMI is usually synonymous with a distribution context and stable demand. However, industrial partners are faced with uncertainty in the context of a B to B relationship. Thus, an adaptation of the actors' planning processes is needed and the question is posed of the interest of VMI in a context of uncertain demand. The purpose of this paper is firstly to analyze the link between VMI and pull logic. Secondly, we explore the extension of VMI notions to the relationship between industrial partners and we confront VMI with uncertain demand in terms of trend, vision of the trend and variability in order to verify the usual stable demand assumption. We also present an integration of VMI into a simulation tool called LogiRisk that we have developed for the evaluation of risks of in supply chain collaboration policies, and a small case study

A systematic approach to analyze the information in supply chain collaboration: a conceptual framework

This book contains eleven chapters on Supply Chain Strategies, Issues and Model

Capacidade funcional, desempenho e solicitação metabólica em futebolistas profissionais durante situação real de jogo monitorados por análise cinematográfica

Foi objetivo deste estudo caracterizar a relação entre o nível de aptidão física, desempenho e solicitação metabólica em futebolistas durante situação real de jogo. Seis jogadores de futebol profissional com média de idade de 20,8 ± 2,6 anos (17-25), peso 70,4 ± 7,5kg (63-81,3) e altura 173,3 ± 9,7cm (166-188), foram submetidos a testes de aptidão física em campo e análise cinematográfica durante a partida. Os testes de aptidão física foram realizados em campo, com medições de lactato sanguíneo. A via metabólica alática foi avaliada por meio de cinco corridas na distância de 30m, em velocidade máxima, com pausa passiva de um minuto entre cada corrida. As concentrações de lactato foram medidas no 1º, 3º e 5º minuto após o término das cinco corridas. Para detecção do limiar anaeróbio foram realizadas 3 corridas de 1.200m nas intensidades de 80, 85 e 90% da velocidade máxima para essa distância, com intervalo passivo de 15 minutos entre cada corrida. As dosagens de lactato sanguíneo foram feitas no 1º, 3º e 5º minuto de repouso passivo após cada corrida. Os futebolistas foram submetidos à filmagem individual durante o transcorrer do jogo e as concentrações de lactato foram medidas antes, no intervalo e no final da partida para análise da solicitação energética e metabólica, respectivamente. Os seguintes resultados foram verificados: 1) o limiar anaeróbio em velocidade de corrida, correspondente à concentração de lactato sanguíneo de 4mmol.L_1 foi encontrado aos 268 ± 28m.min_1 ou 16,1 ± 1,6km.h_1; 2) a velocidade média e a concentração de lactato máximo nas corridas de 30m foram de 6,9 ± 0,2m.s_1 e 4,5 ± 1,0mmol.L_1, respectivamente; 3) a distância total percorrida foi de 10.392 ± 849m, sendo 5.446 ± 550m para o primeiro e 4.945 ± 366m para o segundo tempo, respectivamente; 4) os valores médios encontrados nas concentrações de lactato sanguíneo foram de 1,58 ± 0,37; 4,5 ± 0,42 e 3,46 ± 1,54mmol.L_1 antes, no intervalo do primeiro para o segundo tempo e ao final da a,respectivamente; e 5) a distância média total atingida ao final das partidas pelos jogadores de meio-campo (10.910 ± 121m) foi ligeiramente maior que a percorrida pelos atacantes (10.377 ± 224m) e defensores (9.889 ± 102m), mas não significativa. Houve correlação negativa (r =- 0,84; p < 0,05) entre o limiar anaeróbio (268 ± 28m.min_1 ou 16,1 ± 1,6km.h_1) e a concentração de lactato sanguíneo (4,5 ± 0,4 mmol.L_1) no primeiro tempo do jogo. Portanto, os resultados sugerem que a capacidade aeróbia é um determinante importante para suportar a longa duração da partida e recuperar mais rapidamente os futebolistas dos esforços realizados em alta intensidade, com o desenvolvimento de concentrações de lactato sanguíneo menores ao final do primeiro e segundo tempo das partidas

A study on factors for retailers implementing CPFR — A fuzzy AHP analysis

[[abstract]]Since collaborative, planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR) was first proposed in 1998, numerous studies have focused on exploring its implementation in retailing contexts. While a considerable body of research has emphasized reduced costs, increased sales and improved forecasting ability, there has been a lack of research on the importance of each of the various factors which affect such implementations. In order to find out the critical success factors affecting CPFR implementation, this paper first collected related influence factors regarding adopting CPFR or business to business (B2B) information systems, and further constructed a factor table with a three-layer hierarchical structure. A pair wise analytic hierarchy process (AHP) questionnaire was designed and distributed to experts who were familiar with implementing CPFR in the retailing industry. After questionnaires were returned, we found out the weights of each impact factor by using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (fuzzy AHP) approach. The importance of each critical impact factor was investigated, and the paths of the critical success factors were also analyzed. The results of this study can provide more precise information with regard to allocating optimal resources for retailers implementing CPFR