A refinement of the emission data for Kola Peninsula based on inverse dispersion modelling

Peer reviewe

Effects of ship emissions on air quality in the Baltic Sea region simulated with three different chemistry transport models

The Baltic Sea is a highly frequented shipping area with busy shipping lanes close to densely populated regions. Exhaust emissions from ship traffic into the atmosphere do not only enhance air pollution, they also affect the Baltic Sea environment through acidification and eutrophication of marine waters and surrounding terrestrial ecosystems. As part of the European BONUS project SHEBA (Sustainable Shipping and Environment of the Baltic Sea region), the transport, chemical transformation and fate of atmospheric pollutants in the Baltic Sea region were simulated with three regional chemistry transport model (CTM) systems, CMAQ, EMEP/MSC-W and SILAM, with grid resolutions between 4 and 11&thinsp;km. The main goal was to quantify the effect that shipping emissions have on the regional air quality in the Baltic Sea region when the same shipping emission dataset but different CTMs are used in their typical set-ups. The performance of these models and the shipping contribution to the results of the individual models were evaluated for sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM2.5). Model results from the three CTMs for total air pollutant concentrations were compared to observations from rural and urban background stations of the AirBase monitoring network in the coastal areas of the Baltic Sea region. Observed PM2.5 in summer was underestimated strongly by CMAQ and to some extent by EMEP/MSC-W. Observed PM2.5 in winter was underestimated by SILAM. In autumn all models were in better agreement with observed PM2.5. The spatial average of the annual mean O3 in the EMEP/MSC-W simulation was ca. 20&thinsp;% higher compared to the other two simulations, which is mainly the consequence of using a different set of boundary conditions for the European model domain. There are significant differences in the calculated ship contributions to the levels of air pollutants among the three models. EMEP/MSC-W, with the coarsest grid, predicted weaker ozone depletion through NO emissions in the proximity of the main shipping routes than the other two models. The average contribution of ships to PM2.5 levels in coastal land areas is in the range of 3.1&thinsp;%–5.7&thinsp;% for the three CTMs. Differences in ship-related PM2.5 between the models are mainly attributed to differences in the schemes for inorganic aerosol formation. Differences in the ship-related elemental carbon (EC) among the CTMs can be explained by differences in the meteorological conditions, atmospheric transport processes and the applied wet-scavenging parameterizations. Overall, results from the present study show the sensitivity of the ship contribution to combined uncertainties in boundary conditions, meteorological data and aerosol formation and deposition schemes. This is an important step towards a more reliable evaluation of policy options regarding emission regulations for ship traffic and the planned introduction of a nitrogen emission control area (NECA) in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea in 2021.</p

Cleaner Fuels for Ships Provide Public Health Benefits with Climate Tradeoffs

We evaluate public health and climate impacts of low-sulphur fuels in global shipping. Using high-resolution emissions inventories, integrated atmospheric models, and health risk functions, we assess ship-related PM 2.5 pollution impacts in 2020 with and without the use of low-sulphur fuels. Cleaner marine fuels will reduce ship-related premature mortality and morbidity by 34 and 54%, respectively, representing a ~ 2.6% global reduction in PM 2.5 cardiovascular and lung cancer deaths and a ~3.6% global reduction in childhood asthma. Despite these reductions, low-sulphur marine fuels will still account for ~250k deaths and ~6.4 M childhood asthma cases annually, and more stringent standards beyond 2020 may provide additional health benefits. Lower sulphur fuels also reduce radiative cooling from ship aerosols by ~80%, equating to a ~3% increase in current estimates of total anthropogenic forcing. Therefore, stronger international shipping policies may need to achieve climate and health targets by jointly reducing greenhouse gases and air pollution

Evaluating the capability of regional-scale air quality models to cature the vertical distribution of pollutants

This study is conducted in the framework of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and aims at the operational evaluation of an ensemble of 12 regional-scale chemical transport models used to predict air quality over the North American (NA) and European (EU) continents for 2006. The modelled concentrations of ozone and CO, along with the meteorological fields of wind speed (WS) and direction (WD), temperature (T), and relative humidity (RH), are compared against high-quality in-flight measurements collected by instrumented commercial aircraft as part of the Measurements of OZone, water vapour, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides by Airbus In-service airCraft (MOZAIC) programme. The evaluation is carried out for five model domains positioned around four major airports in NA (Portland, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Dallas) and one in Europe (Frankfurt), from the surface to 8.5 km. We compare mean vertical profiles of modelled and measured variables for all airports to compute error and variability statistics, perform analysis of altitudinal error correlation, and examine the seasonal error distribution for ozone, including an estimation of the bias introduced by the lateral boundary conditions (BCs). The results indicate that model performance is highly dependent on the variable, location, season, and height (e.g. surface, planetary boundary layer (PBL) or free troposphere) being analysed. While model performance for T is satisfactory at all sites (correlation coefficient in excess of 0.90 and fractional bias ≤ 0.01 K), WS is not replicated as well within the PBL (exhibiting a positive bias in the first 100 m and also underestimating observed variability), while above 1000 m, the model performance improves (correlation coefficient often above 0.9). The WD at NA airports is found to be biased in the PBL, primarily due to an overestimation of westerly winds. RH is modelled well within the PBL, but in the free troposphere large discrepancies among models are observed, especially in EU. CO mixing ratios show the largest range of modelled-to-observed standard deviations of all the examined species at all heights and for all airports. Correlation coefficients for CO are typically below 0.6 for all sites and heights, and large errors are present at all heights, particularly in the first 250 m. Model performance for ozone in the PBL is generally good, with both bias and error within 20%. Profiles of ozone mixing ratios depend strongly on surface processes, revealed by the sharp gradient in the first 2 km (10 to 20 ppb km−1). Modelled ozone in winter is biased low at all locations in the NA, primarily due to an underestimation of ozone from the BCs. Most of the model error in the PBL is due to surface processes (emissions, transport, photochemistry), while errors originating aloft appear to have relatively limited impact on model performance at the surface. Suggestions for future work include interpretation of the model-to-model variability and common sources of model bias, and linking CO and ozone bias to the bias in the meteorological fields. Based on the results from this study, we suggest possible in-depth, process-oriented and diagnostic investigations to be carried out next

Airborne olive pollen counts are not representative of exposure to the major olive allergen Ole e 1

Pollen is routinely monitored, but it is unknown whether pollen counts represent allergen exposure. We therefore simultaneously determined olive pollen and Ole e 1 in ambient air in C ordoba, Spain, and Evora, Portugal, using Hirst-type traps for pollen and high-volume cascade impactors for allergen. Pollen from different days released 12-fold different amounts of Ole e 1 per pollen (both locations P < 0.001). Average allergen release from pollen (pollen potency) was much higher in C ordoba (3.9 pg Ole e 1/pollen) than in Evora (0.8 pg Ole e 1/pollen, P = 0.004). Indeed, yearly olive pollen counts in C ordoba were 2.4 times higher than in Evora, but Ole e 1 concentrations were 7.6 times higher. When modeling the origin of the pollen, >40% of Ole e 1 exposure in Evora was explained by high-potency pollen originating from the south of Spain. Thus, olive pollen can vary substantially in allergen release, even though they are morphologically identical

Diurnal rhythms of bone turnover markers in three ethnic groups

Context: Ethnic groups differ in fragility fracture risk and bone metabolism. Differences in diurnal rhythms (DRs) of bone turnover and PTH may play a role.  Objective: We investigated the DRs of plasma bone turnover markers (BTMs), PTH, and 1,25(OH)2D in three groups with pronounced differences in bone metabolism and plasma PTH.  Participants: Healthy Gambian, Chinese, and white British adults (ages 60–75 years; 30 per country).  Interventions: Observational study with sample collection every 4 hours for 24 hours.  Main Outcomes: Levels of plasma C-terminal telopeptide of type I collagen, procollagen type-1 N-propeptide, N-mid osteocalcin, bone alkaline phosphatase, PTH, and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D were measured. DRs were analyzed with random-effects Fourier regression and cross-correlation and regression analyses to assess associations between DRs and fasting and 24-hour means of BTMs and PTH.  Results: Concentrations of BTMs, PTH, and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D were higher in Gambians compared to other groups (P < .05). The DRs were significant for all variables and groups (P < .03) and were unimodal, with a nocturnal peak and a daytime nadir for BTMs, whereas PTH had two peaks. The DRs of BTMs and PTH were significantly cross-correlated for all groups (P < .05). There was a significant positive association between C-terminal telopeptide of type I collagen and PTH in the British and Gambian groups (P = .03), but not the Chinese group.  Conclusions: Despite ethnic differences in plasma BTMs and PTH, DRs were similar. This indicates that alteration of rhythmicity and loss of coupling of bone resorption and formation associated with an elevated PTH in other studies may not uniformly occur across different populations and needs to be considered in the interpretation of PTH as a risk factor of increased bone loss

Modelling black carbon absorption of solar radiation: combining external and internal mixing assumptions

An accurate simulation of the absorption properties is key for assessing the radiative effects of aerosol on meteorology and climate. The representation of how chemical species are mixed inside the particles (the mixing state) is one of the major uncertainty factors in the assessment of these effects. Here we compare aerosol optical properties simulations over Europe and North America, coordinated in the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII), to 1 year of AERONET sunphotometer retrievals, in an attempt to identify a mixing state representation that better reproduces the observed single scattering albedo and its spectral variation. We use a single post-processing tool (FlexAOD) to derive aerosol optical properties from simulated aerosol speciation profiles, and focus on the absorption enhancement of black carbon when it is internally mixed with more scattering material, discarding from the analysis scenes dominated by dust. We found that the single scattering albedo at 440&thinsp;nm (ω0,440) is on average overestimated (underestimated) by 3–5&thinsp;% when external (core-shell internal) mixing of particles is assumed, a bias comparable in magnitude with the typical variability of the quantity. The (unphysical) homogeneous internal mixing assumption underestimates ω0,440 by ∼14&thinsp;%. The combination of external and core-shell configurations (partial internal mixing), parameterized using a simplified function of air mass aging, reduces the ω0,440 bias to -1/-3&thinsp;%. The black carbon absorption enhancement (Eabs) in core-shell with respect to the externally mixed state is in the range 1.8–2.5, which is above the currently most accepted upper limit of ∼1.5. The partial internal mixing reduces Eabs to values more consistent with this limit. However, the spectral dependence of the absorption is not well reproduced, and the absorption Ångström exponent AAE675440 is overestimated by 70–120&thinsp;%. Further testing against more comprehensive campaign data, including a full characterization of the aerosol profile in terms of chemical speciation, mixing state, and related optical properties, would help in putting a better constraint on these calculations.</p

Mesoscale Atmospheric Transport of Ragweed Pollen Allergens from Infected to Uninfected Areas

Allergenic ragweed (Ambrosia spp.) pollen grains, after being released from anthers, can be dispersed by air masses far from their source. However, the action of air temperature,humidity and solar radiation on pollen grains in the atmosphere could impact on the ability of long distance transported (LDT) pollen to maintain allergenic potency. Here, we report that the major allergen of Ambrosia artemisiifolia pollen (Amb a 1) collected in ambient air during episodes of LDT still have immunoreactive properties. The amount of Amb a 1 found in LDT ragweed pollen grains was not constant and varied between episodes. In addition to allergens in pollen sized particles, we detected reactive Amb a 1 in subpollen sized respirable particles. These findings suggest that ragweed pollen grains have the potential to cause allergic reactions, not only in the heavily infested areas but, due to LDT episodes, also in the regions unaffected by ragweed populations

Building an Automatic Pollen Monitoring Network (ePIN): Selection of Optimal Sites by Clustering Pollen Stations

Airborne pollen is a recognized biological indicator and its monitoring has multiple uses such as providing a tool for allergy diagnosis and prevention. There is a knowledge gap related to the distribution of pollen traps needed to achieve representative biomonitoring in a region. The aim of this manuscript is to suggest a method for setting up a pollen network (monitoring method, monitoring conditions, number and location of samplers etc.). As a case study, we describe the distribution of pollen across Bavaria and the design of the Bavarian pollen monitoring network (ePIN), the first operational automatic pollen network worldwide. We established and ran a dense pollen monitoring network of 27 manual Hirst-type pollen traps across Bavaria, Germany, during 2015. Hierarchical cluster analysis of the data was then performed to select the locations for the sites of the final pollen monitoring network. According to our method, Bavaria can be clustered into three large pollen regions with eight zones. Within each zone, pollen diversity and distribution among different locations does not vary significantly. Based on the pollen zones, we opted to place one automatic monitoring station per zone resulting in the ePIN network, serving 13 million inhabitants. The described method defines stations representative for a homogeneous aeropalynologically region, which reduces redundancy within the network and subsequent costs (in the study case from 27 to 8 locations). Following this method, resources in pollen monitoring networks can be optimized and allergic citizens can then be informed in a timely and effective way, even in larger geographical areas