Prediction of survival probabilities with Bayesian Decision Trees

Practitioners use Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) models for predicting the survival probability of an injured patient. The accuracy of TRISS predictions is acceptable for patients with up to three typical injuries, but unacceptable for patients with a larger number of injuries or with atypical injuries. Based on a regression model, the TRISS methodology does not provide the predictive density required for accurate assessment of risk. Moreover, the regression model is difficult to interpret. We therefore consider Bayesian inference for estimating the predictive distribution of survival. The inference is based on decision tree models which recursively split data along explanatory variables, and so practitioners can understand these models. We propose the Bayesian method for estimating the predictive density and show that it outperforms the TRISS method in terms of both goodness-of-fit and classification accuracy. The developed method has been made available for evaluation purposes as a stand-alone application

Groundwater dynamics in coastal gravel barriers backed by freshwater lagoons and the potential for saline intrusion: Two cases from the UK

“NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Marine Systems. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Marine Systems, [VOL 123, (01.08.13)] DOI 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.04.004". The full text is under embargo until 01.08.15

The punitive transition in youth justice: reconstructing the child as offender

The transition from ‘child’ to ‘offender’ status can be fasttracked when offending is formally recognised through formal disposal, with children treated increasing punitively as they progress through the Youth Justice System. The status and ‘offenderising’ transitions of children who offend is socio-historically contingent, not only on their behaviour, but on political, socio-economic, societal, systemic and demography. We support this perspective through a periodised re-examination of four socio-historical trajectories in the construction of the ‘youth offender’: conflict, ambivalence and bifurcation (1908-1979); depenalising diversion and back to justice (1980-1992), fast-tracking the child to offender transition (1993-2007) and tentative depenalisation (2008 to present)