Drought, Climate change and Vegetation response in the succulent karoo, South Africa

For the winter-rainfall region of South Africa, the frequency of drought is predicted to increase over the next 100 years, with dire consequences for the vegetation of this biodiversity hotspot. We analysed historical 20th century rainfall records for six rainfall stations within the succulent karoo biome to determine if the signal of increasing drought frequency is already apparent, and whether mean annual rainfall is decreasing. We found no evidence for a decrease either in mean annual rainfall or in the incidence of drought, as measured by the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) over the 20th century. Evidence points to a drying trend from 1900-1950 while no significant trend in rainfall and drought was found at most stations from 1951-2000. In a second analysis we synthesised the information concerning the response of adult succulent karoo biome plants and seedlings to extended drought conditions. General findings are that responses to drought differ between species, and that longevity is an important life history trait related to drought survival. Growth form is a poor predictor of drought response across the biome. There was a range of responses to drought among adult plants of various growth forms, and among non-succulent seedlings. Leaf-succulent seedlings, however, exhibited phenomenal drought resistance, the majority surviving drought long after all the experimentally comparative non-succulent seedlings had died. Our synthesis showed that previous studies on the impact of drought on succulent karoo biome plants differ greatly in terms of their location, sampling design, measured values and plant responses. A suite of coordinated long-term field observations, experiments and models are therefore needed to assess the response of succulent karoo biome species to key drought events as they occur over time and to integrate this information into conservation planning

Cultural sources of strength and resilience: A case study of holistic wellness boxes for COVID-19 response in Indigenous communities

The COVID-19 pandemic has had disproportionately severe impacts on Indigenous peoples in the United States compared to non-Indigenous populations. In addition to the threat of viral infection, COVID-19 poses increased risk for psychosocial stress that may widen already existing physical, mental, and behavioral health inequities experienced by Indigenous communities. In recognition of the impact of COVID-19 related psychosocial stressors on our tribal community partners, the Johns Hopkins Center for American Indian Health Great Lakes Hub began sending holistic wellness boxes to our community partners in 11 tribal communities in the Midwestern United States and Canada in summer of 2020. Designed specifically to draw on culturally relevant sources of strength and resilience, these boxes contained a variety of items to support mental, emotional, cultural, and physical wellbeing. Feedback from recipients suggest that these wellness boxes provided a unique form of COVID-19 relief. Additional Johns Hopkins Center for American Indian Health offices have begun to adapt wellness boxes for the cultural context of their regions. This case study describes the conceptualization, creation, and contents of these wellness boxes and orients this intervention within a reflection on foundations of community-based participatory research, holistic relief, and drawing on cultural strengths in responding to COVID-19.Peer reviewedSociolog

Estimation of returning Atlantic salmon st oc k from rod exploitation r at e f or pr incipal salmon r ivers in England & Wales

F or eff ective fishery management, estimated stock sizes, along with their uncertainties, should be accurate, precise, and unbiased. Atlantic salmon Salmo salar stock assessment in England and Wales (and elsewhere across the Atlantic) estimate returning salmon stocks by applying a measure of rod exploitation rate (RER), derived from less abundant fishery-independent stock estimates, to abundant fishery-dependent data. Currently, RER estimates are generated for individual principal salmon rivers based on a v ailable local data and assumptions. We propose a single, consistent, transparent, and statistically robust method to estimate salmon stocks that transfers strength of information from "data-rich"rivers, i.e. those with fisheries-independent data, to "data-poor"rivers without such data. We proposed, fitted, simplified, and then validated a Beta-Binomial model of RER, including co v ariates representing angler and fish beha viours, riv er flo w, and random effects to control for nuisance effects. Our "best"model re v ealed co v ariate effects in line with our h ypotheses and generaliz ed to data not used to train it. We used this model to extrapolate stock estimates from 12 data-rich to 52 data-poor rivers, together with their uncertainties. The resulting river-specific salmon stock estimates were judged to be useful and can be used as key inputs to river-specific, national, and international salmon stock assessments

Navigating spaces between conservation research and practice: are we making progress?

1. Despite aspirations for conservation impact, mismatches between research and implementation have limited progress towards this goal. There is, therefore, an urgent need to identify how we can more effectively navigate the spaces between research and practice. 2. In 2014, we ran a workshop with conservation researchers and practitioners to identify mismatches between research and implementation that needed to be overcome to deliver evidence‐informed conservation action. Five mismatches were highlighted: spatial, temporal, priority, communication, and institutional. 3. Since 2014, thinking around the ‘research–implementation gap’ has progressed. The term ‘gap’ has been replaced by language around the dynamic ‘spaces’ between research and action, representing a shift in thinking around what it takes to better align research and practice. 4. In 2019, we ran a follow‐up workshop reflecting on this shift, whether the five mismatches identified in the 2014 workshop were still present in conservation, and whether progress had been made to overcome these mismatches during the past 5 years. We found that while there has been progress, we still have some way to go across all dimensions. 5. Here, we report on the outcomes of the 2019 workshop, reflect on what has changed over the past 5 years, and offer 10 recommendations for strengthening the alignment of conservation research and practice

Alien Planktonic Species in the Marine Realm: What Do They Mean for Ecosystem Services Provision?

Human well-being is significantly affected by the contributions provided by ecosystems, or ecosystem services. In this well-illustrated atlas, world-class experts identify and discuss key driving forces, trade-offs, and synergies of ecosystem services. Through interdisciplinary case studies varying across ecosystems and scales, this atlas narrows the knowledge gap between ecosystem services management and related fields of study. This atlas begins with conceptual background and proceeds to present drivers and their risks for ecosystems, their functions and services, and biodiversity. Trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services and societal responses to the drivers and trade-offs are discussed. Sustainable land management and governance concepts are demonstrated throughout the atlas. Environmental scientists, practitioners and policy makers worldwide will appreciate the solutions and best practices identified throughout the chapters. Students of environmental sciences, socio-economics and landscape planning will find this atlas to be a valuable read, as well

Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the \u27business as usual\u27 climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5)8 representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness

new technologies for the sustainable management and planning of rural land and environment

New technologies could be adequately introduced for an improved analysis aimed to the sustainable management and planning of the rural land, as well as its environment and landscape. Nowadays, this analysis is easier and more complete through the use of powerful and reliable tools. Several changes can be considered to be as models of territorial development, useful for an appropriate planning of the human interventions in a rural area. Remote sensing techniques could be employed for the monitoring of agricultural land variation, while Geographical Information Systems are excellent tools for landscape modeling and three-dimensional analysis. In this chapter, land-use changes in a rural area located in southern Italy were analyzed by comparing some historical cartographic supports with modern maps, in order to evaluate the morphological and vegetation variations of the agroforestry land during time. Moreover, a landscape analysis was conducted through the implementation of digital terrain models, which were enriched by draping land cover pictures over them. These elaborations finally enabled an evaluation in a scenic way of the aesthetic quality of the agroforestry landscape, allowing a virtual jump back to time periods when digital aerial photography was not yet even possible. This multi-temporal analysis with the support of GIS techniques revealed to have a great potential for assessing and managing landscape diversity and changes of vegetation, as well as for planning sound interventions over the landscape structures

A framework to assess biogeochemical response to ecosystem disturbance using nutrient partitioning ratios

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2015. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecosystems 19 (2016): 387-395, doi:10.1007/s10021-015-9934-1.Disturbances affect almost all terrestrial ecosystems, but it has been difficult to identify general principles regarding these influences. To improve our understanding of the long-term consequences of disturbance on terrestrial ecosystems, we present a conceptual framework that analyzes disturbances by their biogeochemical impacts. We posit that the ratio of soil and plant nutrient stocks in mature ecosystems represents a characteristic site property. Focusing on nitrogen (N), we hypothesize that this partitioning ratio (soil N: plant N) will undergo a predictable trajectory after disturbance. We investigate the nature of this partitioning ratio with three approaches: (1) nutrient stock data from forested ecosystems in North America, (2) a process-based ecosystem model, and (3) conceptual shifts in site nutrient availability with altered disturbance frequency. Partitioning ratios could be applied to a variety of ecosystems and successional states, allowing for improved temporal scaling of disturbance events. The generally short-term empirical evidence for recovery trajectories of nutrient stocks and partitioning ratios suggests two areas for future research. First, we need to recognize and quantify how disturbance effects can be accreting or depleting, depending on whether their net effect is to increase or decrease ecosystem nutrient stocks. Second, we need to test how altered disturbance frequencies from the present state may be constructive or destructive in their effects on biogeochemical cycling and nutrient availability. Long-term studies, with repeated sampling of soils and vegetation, will be essential in further developing this framework of biogeochemical response to disturbance.This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. DEB-1145815 and 0949420.2016-11-1

Mendelian Randomization Studies Do Not Support a Causal Role for Reduced Circulating Adiponectin Levels in Insulin Resistance and Type 2 Diabetes

Adiponectin is strongly inversely associated with insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes, but its causal role remains controversial. We used a Mendelian randomization approach to test the hypothesis that adiponectin causally influences insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes. We used genetic variants at the ADIPOQ gene as instruments to calculate a regression slope between adiponectin levels and metabolic traits (up to 31,000 individuals) and a combination of instrumental variables and summary statistics–based genetic risk scores to test the associations with gold-standard measures of insulin sensitivity (2,969 individuals) and type 2 diabetes (15,960 case subjects and 64,731 control subjects). In conventional regression analyses, a 1-SD decrease in adiponectin levels was correlated with a 0.31-SD (95% CI 0.26–0.35) increase in fasting insulin, a 0.34-SD (0.30–0.38) decrease in insulin sensitivity, and a type 2 diabetes odds ratio (OR) of 1.75 (1.47–2.13). The instrumental variable analysis revealed no evidence of a causal association between genetically lower circulating adiponectin and higher fasting insulin (0.02 SD; 95% CI −0.07 to 0.11; N = 29,771), nominal evidence of a causal relationship with lower insulin sensitivity (−0.20 SD; 95% CI −0.38 to −0.02; N = 1,860), and no evidence of a relationship with type 2 diabetes (OR 0.94; 95% CI 0.75–1.19; N = 2,777 case subjects and 13,011 control subjects). Using the ADIPOQ summary statistics genetic risk scores, we found no evidence of an association between adiponectin-lowering alleles and insulin sensitivity (effect per weighted adiponectin-lowering allele: −0.03 SD; 95% CI −0.07 to 0.01; N = 2,969) or type 2 diabetes (OR per weighted adiponectin-lowering allele: 0.99; 95% CI 0.95–1.04; 15,960 case subjects vs. 64,731 control subjects). These results do not provide any consistent evidence that interventions aimed at increasing adiponectin levels will improve insulin sensitivity or risk of type 2 diabetes