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Signatures of Subacute Potentially Catastrophic Illness in the ICU: Model Development and Validation

Objectives: Patients in ICUs are susceptible to subacute potentially catastrophic illnesses such as respiratory failure, sepsis, and hemorrhage that present as severe derangements of vital signs. More subtle physiologic signatures may be present before clinical deterioration, when treatment might be more effective. We performed multivariate statistical analyses of bedside physiologic monitoring data to identify such early subclinical signatures of incipient life-threatening illness. Design: We report a study of model development and validation of a retrospective observational cohort using resampling (Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis type 1b internal validation) and a study of model validation using separate data (type 2b internal/external validation). Setting: University of Virginia Health System (Charlottesville), a tertiary-care, academic medical center. Patients: Critically ill patients consecutively admitted between January 2009 and June 2015 to either the neonatal, surgical/trauma/burn, or medical ICUs with available physiologic monitoring data. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results: We analyzed 146 patient-years of vital sign and electrocardiography waveform time series from the bedside monitors of 9,232 ICU admissions. Calculations from 30-minute windows of the physiologic monitoring data were made every 15 minutes. Clinicians identified 1,206 episodes of respiratory failure leading to urgent unplanned intubation, sepsis, or hemorrhage leading to multi-unit transfusions from systematic individual chart reviews. Multivariate models to predict events up to 24 hours prior had internally validated C-statistics of 0.61-0.88. In adults, physiologic signatures of respiratory failure and hemorrhage were distinct from each other but externally consistent across ICUs. Sepsis, on the other hand, demonstrated less distinct and inconsistent signatures. Physiologic signatures of all neonatal illnesses were similar. Conclusions: Subacute potentially catastrophic illnesses in three diverse ICU populations have physiologic signatures that are detectable in the hours preceding clinical detection and intervention. Detection of such signatures can draw attention to patients at highest risk, potentially enabling earlier intervention and better outcomes

A corruption risk assessment for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in Nigeria

This study asked if the concerns about corruption in climate change in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and, therefore, fiduciary standards, is justified or not. The study employed an explorative approach using the Nigeria REDD+ process as a case study. Using semistructured questionnaire and in-depth interviews with key informants, data were collected from 201 households from REDD+ project sites and twenty-one forestry officials from local forestry commission on the perceived extent of transparency in REDD+ implementation in the study area; how REDD+ local officials perceive the fiduciary standards and other governance standards by international climate funds; and effectiveness of anticorruption measures within the REDD+ projects. The confidence reposed in the project's local implementing agency was generally poor. Allocation of carbon rights was the most critically perceived to be fraught with poor transparency in REDD+ processes. Only five out of eight governance measures that could help improve transparency in REDD+ processes were available locally two of which were rated as just fairly functional. This study agreed that the multilateral climate funds are justified in respect of the set fiduciary standards for climate finance flows

Quantifying bacterial evolution in the wild : A birthday problem for Campylobacter lineages

Measuring molecular evolution in bacteria typically requires estimation of the rate at which nucleotide changes accumulate in strains sampled at different times that share a common ancestor. This approach has been useful for dating ecological and evolutionary events that coincide with the emergence of important lineages, such as outbreak strains and obligate human pathogens. However, in multi-host (niche) transmission scenarios, where the pathogen is essentially an opportunistic environmental organism, sampling is often sporadic and rarely reflects the overall population, particularly when concentrated on clinical isolates. This means that approaches that assume recent common ancestry are not applicable. Here we present a new approach to estimate the molecular clock rate in Campylobacter that draws on the popular probability conundrum known as the 'birthday problem'. Using large genomic datasets and comparative genomic approaches, we use isolate pairs that share recent common ancestry to estimate the rate of nucleotide change for the population. Identifying synonymous and non-synonymous nucleotide changes, both within and outside of recombined regions of the genome, we quantify clock-like diversification to estimate synonymous rates of nucleotide change for the common pathogenic bacteria Campylobacter colt (2.4 x 10(-6) s/s/y) and Campylobacter jejuni (3.4 x 10(-6) s/s/y). Finally, using estimated total rates of nucleotide change, we infer the number of effective lineages within the sample time frame-analogous to a shared birthday-and assess the rate of turnover of lineages in our sample set over short evolutionary timescales. This provides a generalizable approach to calibrating rates in populations of environmental bacteria and shows that multiple lineages are maintained, implying that large-scale clonal sweeps may take hundreds of years or more in these species.Peer reviewe

Argon Purification Studies and a Novel Liquid Argon Re-circulation System

Future giant liquid argon (LAr) time projection chambers (TPCs) require a purity of better than 0.1 parts per billion (ppb) to allow the ionised electrons to drift without significant capture by any electronegative impurities. We present a comprehensive study of the effects of electronegative impurity on gaseous and liquid argon scintillation light, an analysis of the efficacy of various purification chemicals, as well as the Liverpool LAr setup, which utilises a novel re-circulation purification system. Of the impurities tested - Air, O_2, H_2O, N_2 and CO_2 in the range of between 0.01 ppm to 1000 ppm - H_2O was found to have the most profound effect on gaseous argon scintillation light, and N_2 was found to have the least. Additionally, a correlation between the slow component decay time and the total energy deposited with 0.01 ppm - 100 ppm O_2 contamination levels in liquid argon has been established. The superiority of molecular sieves over anhydrous complexes at absorbing Ar gas, N_2 gas and H_2O vapour has been quantified using BET isotherm analysis. The efficiency of Cu and P_2O5 at removing O_2 and H_2O impurities from 1 bar N6 argon gas at both room temperature and -130 ^oC was investigated and found to be high. A novel, highly scalable LAr re-circulation system has been developed. The complete system, consisting of a motorised bellows pump operating in liquid and a purification cartridge, were designed and built in-house. The system was operated successfully over many days and achieved a re-circulation rate of 27 litres/hour and high purity

Detecting co-selection through excess linkage disequilibrium in bacterial genomes

Population genomics has revolutionized our ability to study bacterial evolution by enabling data-driven discovery of the genetic architecture of trait variation. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have more recently become accompanied by genome-wide epistasis and co-selection (GWES) analysis, which offers a phenotype-free approach to generating hypotheses about selective processes that simultaneously impact multiple loci across the genome. However, existing GWES methods only consider associations between distant pairs of loci within the genome due to the strong impact of linkage-disequilibrium (LD) over short distances. Based on the general functional organisation of genomes it is nevertheless expected that majority of co-selection and epistasis will act within relatively short genomic proximity, on co-variation occurring within genes and their promoter regions, and within operons. Here, we introduce LDWeaver, which enables an exhaustive GWES across both short- and long-range LD, to disentangle likely neutral co-variation from selection. We demonstrate the ability of LDWeaver to efficiently generate hypotheses about co-selection using large genomic surveys of multiple major human bacterial pathogen species and validate several findings using functional annotation and phenotypic measurements. Our approach will facilitate the study of bacterial evolution in the light of rapidly expanding population genomic data

Agricultural intensification and the evolution of host specialism in the enteric pathogen Campylobacter jejuni.

Modern agriculture has dramatically changed the distribution of animal species on Earth. Changes to host ecology have a major impact on the microbiota, potentially increasing the risk of zoonotic pathogens being transmitted to humans, but the impact of intensive livestock production on host-associated bacteria has rarely been studied. Here, we use large isolate collections and comparative genomics techniques, linked to phenotype studies, to understand the timescale and genomic adaptations associated with the proliferation of the most common food-born bacterial pathogen (Campylobacter jejuni) in the most prolific agricultural mammal (cattle). Our findings reveal the emergence of cattle specialist C. jejuni lineages from a background of host generalist strains that coincided with the dramatic rise in cattle numbers in the 20th century. Cattle adaptation was associated with horizontal gene transfer and significant gene gain and loss. This may be related to differences in host diet, anatomy, and physiology, leading to the proliferation of globally disseminated cattle specialists of major public health importance. This work highlights how genomic plasticity can allow important zoonotic pathogens to exploit altered niches in the face of anthropogenic change and provides information for mitigating some of the risks posed by modern agricultural systems

Genomic tailoring of autogenous poultry vaccines to reduce Campylobacter from farm to fork

Campylobacter is a leading cause of food-borne gastroenteritis worldwide, linked to the consumption of contaminated poultry meat. Targeting this pathogen at source, vaccines for poultry can provide short-term caecal reductions in Campylobacter numbers in the chicken intestine. However, this approach is unlikely to reduce Campylobacter in the food chain or human incidence. This is likely as vaccines typically target only a subset of the high genomic strain diversity circulating among chicken flocks, and rapid evolution diminishes vaccine efficacy over time. To address this, we used a genomic approach to develop a whole-cell autogenous vaccine targeting isolates harbouring genes linked to survival outside of the host. We hyper-immunised a whole major UK breeder farm to passively target offspring colonisation using maternally-derived antibody. Monitoring progeny, broiler flocks revealed a near-complete shift in the post-vaccination Campylobacter population with an ~50% reduction in isolates harbouring extra-intestinal survival genes and a significant reduction of Campylobacter cells surviving on the surface of meat. Based on these findings, we developed a logistic regression model that predicted that vaccine efficacy could be extended to target 65% of a population of clinically relevant strains. Immuno-manipulation of poultry microbiomes towards less harmful commensal isolates by competitive exclusion, has major potential for reducing pathogens in the food production chain

Flavonoids from Pterogyne nitens Inhibit Hepatitis C Virus Entry

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is one of the leading causes of liver diseases and transplantation worldwide. The current available therapy for HCV infection is based on interferon-α, ribavirin and the new direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), such as NS3 protease and NS5B polymerase inhibitors. However, the high costs of drug design, severe side effects and HCV resistance presented by the existing treatments demonstrate the need for developing more efficient anti-HCV agents. This study aimed to evaluate the antiviral effects of sorbifolin (1) and pedalitin (2), two flavonoids from Pterogyne nitens on the HCV replication cycle. These compounds were investigated for their anti-HCV activities using genotype 2a JFH-1 subgenomic replicons and infectious virus systems. Flavonoids 1 and 2 inhibited virus entry up to 45.0% and 78.7% respectively at non-cytotoxic concentrations. The mechanism of the flavonoid 2 block to virus entry was demonstrated to be by both the direct action on virus particles and the interference on the host cells. Alternatively, the flavonoid 1 activity was restricted to its virucidal effect. Additionally, no inhibitory effects on HCV replication and release were observed by treating cells with these flavonoids. These data are the first description of 1 and 2 possessing in vitro anti-HCV activity

Epistasis, core-genome disharmony, and adaptation in recombining bacteria

Recombination of short DNA fragments via horizontal gene transfer (HGT) can introduce beneficial alleles, create genomic disharmony through negative epistasis, and create adaptive gene combinations through positive epistasis. For non-core (accessory) genes, the negative epistatic cost is likely to be minimal because the incoming genes have not co-evolved with the recipient genome and are frequently observed as tightly linked cassettes with major effects. By contrast, interspecific recombination in the core genome is expected to be rare because disruptive allelic replacement is likely to introduce negative epistasis. Why then is homologous recombination common in the core of bacterial genomes? To understand this enigma, we take advantage of an exceptional model system, the common enteric pathogens Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli that are known for very high magnitude interspecies gene flow in the core genome. As expected, HGT does indeed disrupt co-adapted allele pairings, indirect evidence of negative epistasis. However, multiple HGT events enable recovery of the genome’s co-adaption between introgressing alleles, even in core metabolism genes (e.g., formate dehydrogenase). These findings demonstrate that, even for complex traits, genetic coalitions can be decoupled, transferred, and independently reinstated in a new genetic background—facilitating transition between fitness peaks. In this example, the two-step recombinational process is associated with C. coli that are adapted to the agricultural niche