A Bayesian approach to modeling and projecting cohort effects

One of the key motivations in the construction of ever more sophisticated mortality models was the realisation of the importance of \cohort effects" in the historical data. However, these are often difficult to estimate robustly, due to the identifiability issues present in age/period/cohort mortality models, and exhibit spurious features for the most recent years of birth, for which we have little data. These can cause problems when we project the model into the future. In this study, we show how to ensure that projected mortality rates from the model are independent of the arbitrary identi ability constraints needed to identify the cohort parameters. We then go on to develop a Bayesian approach for projecting the cohort parameters, which allows fully for uncertainty in the recent parameters due to the lack of information for these years of birth, which leads to more reasonable projections of mortality rates in future

Optical Excitations and Field Enhancement in Short Graphene Nanoribbons

The optical excitations of elongated graphene nanoflakes of finite length are investigated theoretically through quantum chemistry semi-empirical approaches. The spectra and the resulting dipole fields are analyzed, accounting in full atomistic details for quantum confinement effects, which are crucial in the nanoscale regime. We find that the optical spectra of these nanostructures are dominated at low energy by excitations with strong intensity, comprised of characteristic coherent combinations of a few single-particle transitions with comparable weight. They give rise to stationary collective oscillations of the photoexcited carrier density extending throughout the flake, and to a strong dipole and field enhancement. This behavior is robust with respect to width and length variations, thus ensuring tunability in a large frequency range. The implications for nanoantennas and other nanoplasmonic applications are discussed for realistic geometries

Sharing Longevity Risk: Why Governments Should Issue Longevity Bonds

Government-issued longevity bonds would allow longevity risk to be shared efficiently and fairly between generations. In exchange for paying a longevity risk premium, the current generation of retirees can look to future generations to hedge their systematic longevity risk. Longevity bonds will lead to a more secure pension savings market, together with a more efficient annuity market. By issuing longevity bonds, governments can aid the establishment of reliable longevity indices and key price points on the longevity risk term structure and help the emerging capital market in longevity-linked instruments to build on this term structure with liquid longevity derivatives

Profile Prediction and Fabrication of Wet-Etched Gold Nanostructures for Localized Surface Plasmon Resonance

Dispersed nanosphere lithography can be employed to fabricate gold nanostructures for localized surface plasmon resonance, in which the gold film evaporated on the nanospheres is anisotropically dry etched to obtain gold nanostructures. This paper reports that by wet etching of the gold film, various kinds of gold nanostructures can be fabricated in a cost-effective way. The shape of the nanostructures is predicted by profile simulation, and the localized surface plasmon resonance spectrum is observed to be shifting its extinction peak with the etching time

Steady-state modulation of voltage-gated K+ channels in rat arterial smooth muscle by cyclic AMP-dependent protein kinase and protein phosphatase 2B

Voltage-gated potassium channels (Kv) are important regulators of membrane potential in vascular smooth muscle cells, which is integral to controlling intracellular Ca2+ concentration and regulating vascular tone. Previous work indicates that Kv channels can be modulated by receptor-driven alterations of cyclic AMP-dependent protein kinase (PKA) activity. Here, we demonstrate that Kv channel activity is maintained by tonic activity of PKA. Whole-cell recording was used to assess the effect of manipulating PKA signalling on Kv and ATP-dependent K+ channels of rat mesenteric artery smooth muscle cells. Application of PKA inhibitors, KT5720 or H89, caused a significant inhibition of Kv currents. Tonic PKA-mediated activation of Kv appears maximal as application of isoprenaline (a β-adrenoceptor agonist) or dibutyryl-cAMP failed to enhance Kv currents. We also show that this modulation of Kv by PKA can be reversed by protein phosphatase 2B/calcineurin (PP2B). PKA-dependent inhibition of Kv by KT5720 can be abrogated by pre-treatment with the PP2B inhibitor cyclosporin A, or inclusion of a PP2B auto-inhibitory peptide in the pipette solution. Finally, we demonstrate that tonic PKA-mediated modulation of Kv requires intact caveolae. Pre-treatment of the cells with methyl-β-cyclodextrin to deplete cellular cholesterol, or adding caveolin-scaffolding domain peptide to the pipette solution to disrupt caveolae-dependent signalling each attenuated PKA-mediated modulation of the Kv current. These findings highlight a novel, caveolae-dependent, tonic modulatory role of PKA on Kv channels providing new insight into mechanisms and the potential for pharmacological manipulation of vascular tone

Sex-specific mortality forecasting for UK countries: a coherent approach

This paper introduces a gender specific model for the joint mortality projection of three countries (England and Wales combined, Scotland, and Northern Ireland) of the United Kingdom. The model, called 2-tier Augmented Common Factor model, extends the classical Lee and Carter [26] and Li and Lee [32] models, with a common time factor for the whole UK population, a sex specific period factor for males and females, and a specific time factor for each country within each gender. As death counts in each subpopulation are modelled directly, a Poisson framework is used. Our results show that the 2-tier ACF model improves the in-sample fitting compared to the use of independent LC models for each subpopulation or of independent Li and Lee models for each couple of genders within each country. Mortality projections also show that the 2-tier ACF model produces coherent forecasts for the two genders within each country and different countries within each gender, thus avoiding the divergence issues arising when independent projections are used. The 2-tier ACF is further extended to include a cohort term to take into account the faster improvements of the UK ‘golden generation’

Sensitivity of Localized Surface Plasmon Resonances to Bulk and Local Changes in the Optical Environment

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of a Published Work that appeared in final form in Journal of Physical Chemistry C copyright © 2009 American Chemical Society after peer review and technical editing by the publisher. To access the final edited and published work see http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/jp810322qSingle rod-shaped and disk-shaped gold nanoparticles with sizes ranging from 60 to 162 nm were analyzed using dark-field scattering spectroscopy. The sensitivity of the localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) of each nanoparticle to both a bulk and a local change in the refractive index of the environment was obtained by monitoring the change in the spectral position of the LSPR. It was found that the rods were more sensitive to changes in both the local environment and the bulk environment, in particular rods with a length > 110 nm. This behavior was confirmed by finite element modeling of the structures that clearly indicated a saturation of the relative wavelength shift for the disks as the diameter increased whereas the sensitivity of the rods continued to increase linearly with increasing length. This disparity in the behavior of the two types of nanoparticle may in part be attributed to two principal effects associated with the presence of the substrate: first, that the proportion of the surface area of the nanoparticle in contact with the substrate is larger for the disk than for the rod; second, that the LSPR electromagnetic field is more concentrated within the superstrate for the rod compared to the disk. Further analysis of data obtained from modeling a changing local environment indicates that, although the rods are more sensitive, both rods and disks exhibit a similar field confinement

Frequency comb transferred by surface plasmon resonance

Frequency combs, millions of narrow-linewidth optical modes referenced to an atomic clock, have shown remarkable potential in time/frequency metrology, atomic/molecular spectroscopy and precision LIDARs. Applications have extended to coherent nonlinear Raman spectroscopy of molecules and quantum metrology for entangled atomic qubits. Frequency combs will create novel possibilities in nano-photonics and plasmonics; however, its interrelation with surface plasmons is unexplored despite the important role that plasmonics plays in nonlinear spectroscopy and quantum optics through the manipulation of light on a sub-wavelength scale. Here, we demonstrate that a frequency comb can be transformed to a plasmonic comb in plasmonic nanostructures and reverted to the original frequency comb without noticeable degradation of <6.51 x 10(-19) in absolute position, 2.92 x 10(-19) in stability and 1Hz in linewidth. The results indicate that the superior performance of a well-defined frequency comb can be applied to nanoplasmonic spectroscopy, quantum metrology and subwavelength photonic circuits.open