Development of an unsteady aerodynamic analysis for finite-deflection subsonic cascades

An unsteady potential flow analysis, which accounts for the effects of blade geometry and steady turning, was developed to predict aerodynamic forces and moments associated with free vibration or flutter phenomena in the fan, compressor, or turbine stages of modern jet engines. Based on the assumption of small amplitude blade motions, the unsteady flow is governed by linear equations with variable coefficients which depend on the underlying steady low. These equations were approximated using difference expressions determined from an implicit least squares development and applicable on arbitrary grids. The resulting linear system of algebraic equations is block tridiagonal, which permits an efficient, direct (i.e., noniterative) solution. The solution procedure was extended to treat blades with rounded or blunt edges at incidence relative to the inlet flow

Application of a linearized unsteady aerodynamic analysis to standard cascade configurations

A linearized potential flow analysis, which accounts for the effects of nonuniform steady flow phenomena on the linearized unsteady aerodynamic response to prescribed blade motions, has been applied to five cascade configurations. These include the first, fifth, eighth and ninth standard configurations proposed as a result of the Second International Symposium on Aeroelasticity in Turbomachines and a NASA Lewis flutter cascade. Selected results from this study, including comparisons between analytical predictions and the experimental measurements submitted for three of the foregoing configurations, are described. The correlation between theory and experiment for the first standard configuration (a compressor cascade operating at low Mach number and frequency) is quite good. Moreover, the predictions and measurements for the NASA Lewis cascade of symmetric biconvex airfoils show good qualitative agreement. However, wide discrepancies exist between the theoretical predictions and the experimental measurements for the fifth standard configuration (a subsonic transonic fan tip cascade). These can be partially attributed to conditions being imposed in the experiment which differ from those commonly used in unsteady aerodynamic analyses

An improved framework for discriminating seismicity induced by industrial activities from natural earthquakes

Heightened concerns regarding induced seismicity necessitate robust methods to assess whether detected earthquakes near industrial sites are natural or induced by the industrial activity. These assessments are required rapidly, which often precludes detailed modeling of fluid pressures and the geomechanical response of the reservoir and nearby faults. Simple question‐based assessment schemes in current use are a useful tool but suffer from several shortcomings: they do not specifically address questions regarding whether available evidence supports the case for natural seismicity; they give all questions equal weighting regardless of the relative influence of different factors; they are not formulated to account for ambiguous or uncertain evidence; and the final outcomes can be difficult to interpret. We propose a new framework that addresses these shortcomings by assigning numerical scores to each question, with positive values for answers that support induced seismicity and negative values for responses favoring natural seismicity. The score values available for each question reflect the relative importance of the different questions, and for each question the absolute value of the score is modulated according to the degree of uncertainty. The final outcome is a score, the induced assessment ratio, either positive or negative (or zero), that reflects whether events were induced or natural. A second score, the evidence strength ratio, is assigned that characterizes the strength of the available evidence, expressed as the ratio of the maximum score possible with the available evidence relative to the maximum score that could be obtained if all desired data were available at a site. We demonstrate this approach by application to two case studies in the United Kingdom, one widely regarded as a case of induced seismicity, and the other more likely to be a series of tectonic earthquakes

Simulation of seismic events induced by CO2 injection at In Salah, Algeria

Date of Acceptance: 18/06/2015 Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank the operators of the In Salah JV and JIP, BP, Statoil and Sonatrach, for providing the data shown in this paper, and for giving permission to publish. Midland Valley Exploration are thanked for the use of their Move software for geomechanical restoration. JPV is a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Early Career Research Fellow (Grant NE/I021497/1) and ALS is funded by a NERC Partnership Research Grant (Grant NE/I010904).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Water, oceanic fracture zones and the lubrication of subducting plate boundaries - insights from seismicity

We investigate the relationship between subduction processes and related seismicity for the Lesser Antilles Arc using the Gutenberg-Richter law. This power lawdescribes the earthquakemagnitude distribution, with the gradient of the cumulative magnitude distribution being commonly known as the b-value. The Lesser Antilles Arc was chosen because of its alongstrike variability in sediment subduction and the transition from subduction to strike-slip movement towards its northern and southern ends. The data are derived from the seismicity catalogues from the Seismic Research Centre of The University of the West Indies and the Observatoires Volcanologiques et Sismologiques of the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris and consist of subcrustal events primarily from the slab interface. The b-value is found using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for a maximum-likelihood straight line-fitting routine. We investigate spatial variations in b-values using a grid-search with circular cells as well as an along-arc projection. Tests with different algorithms and the two independent earthquake cataloges provide confidence in the robustness of our results. We observe a strong spatial variability of the b-value that cannot be explained by the uncertainties. Rather than obtaining a simple north-south b-value distribution suggestive of the dominant control on earthquake triggering being water released from the sedimentary cover on the incoming American Plates, or a b-value distribution that correlates with on the obliquity of subduction, we obtain a series of discrete, high b-value 'bull's-eyes' along strike. These bull's-eyes, which indicate stress release through a higher fraction of small earthquakes, coincide with the locations of known incoming oceanic fracture zones on the American Plates. We interpret the results in terms of water being delivered to the Lesser Antilles subduction zone in the vicinity of fracture zones providing lubrication and thus changing the character of the related seismicity. Our results suggest serpentinization around mid-ocean ridge transform faults, which go on to become fracture zones on the incoming plate, plays a significant role in the delivery of water into the mantle at subduction zones

The microseismic response at the In Salah Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) site

AbstractIn 2004, injection of carbon dioxide (CO2) to be stored at depth began at the In Salah Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) site and a pilot microseismic monitoring array was installed in 2009. The In Salah project presents an unusual dataset since it is the first major non-Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) CCS project to be monitored for microseismicity. This paper outlines an extensive seismological study using a range of techniques, relying mainly on data from a single three-component geophone. Important information is derived from the data, such as event locations, event magnitudes and fracture characteristics, that could be used in real-time to regulate the geomechanical response of a site to CO2 injection. The event rate closely follows the CO2 injection rate, with a total of 9506 seismic events detected. The locations for a carefully selected subset of events are estimated to occur at or below the injection interval, thereby ruling out fault or fracture activation caused by CO2 migration at shallow depths. A very small number of events (11) with less well-constrained locations may have occurred above the injection interval. However, there is no microseismic evidence that these events are correlated with CO2 injection and we suggest they are caused by stress transfer rather than CO2 migration into the caprock. The observed maximum moment magnitude, Mw=1.7, is consistent with estimated fracture dimensions at the injection depth. Fracture orientation estimated using shear-wave splitting analysis is approximately NW-SE, in agreement with fracture orientations inferred from logging data. During periods of high injection rates the degree of anisotropy increases slightly and then falls back to original values when injection rates fall. This implies the CO2 is opening pre-existing fractures which then close as pressure decreases.This an important proof-of-concept study that proves the value of microseismic monitoring of CCS projects, even with a limited array. We thus recommend that microseismic monitoring arrays are installed prior to CO2 injection at future CCS sites to enhance our understanding by making baseline and comparative studies possible. This would also provide real-time monitoring of the geomechanical response to injection, allowing operators to modify injection parameters and to help ensure the safe operation of a project

Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo data

A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. A case study on two catchments in eastern Australia illustrates this framework. To develop an identifiable model characterizing long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate proxies, and instrumental indices describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yr is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, is found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and is rejected in favor of a gamma distribution for simulating the run lengths of the wet/dry IPO-PDO states. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. The model is able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multiyear accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations. Mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry states is found to be 15%-28% lower than the wet state at the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive model is unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.Benjamin J. Henley, Mark A. Thyer, George Kuczera and Stewart W. Frank