SUSMETRO : Impact Assessment Tools for Food Planning in Metropolitan Regions : IA tools and serious gaming in support of sustainability targets for food planning, nature conservation and recreation

By offering a series of decision support tools for stakeholders of metropolitan regions, SUSMETRO facilitates and enables evidence-based decision making by means of ‘serious gaming’. Making use of the Phase 1 thematic maps such as on agricultural competitiveness, nature conservation and recreational values, stakeholders can compare impacts of traditional versus innovative forms of agricultural production. The SUSMETRO Impact Assessment tool provides information on the expected effects of spatial planning with regard to the self-supportive capacities of the region (ecological footprint) and the share of recreational and nature conservation facilities (land use functions), offering cost-benefit calculations regarding the expected economic revenues. The whole process is embedded in a Landscape Character Assessment process and guided by Knowledge Brokerage procedures to strengthen the science-policy interface. In sum, the SUSMETRO approach allows a wide range of stakeholders to co-develop images for sustainable Metropolitan Agriculture

Human factors: Predictors of avoidable wilderness accidents?

A common misconception is that wilderness adventure travel is risky owing to the nature of the objective dangers that are encountered, such as avalanches, rock falls, flash floods, failure of technical equipment and so forth. However, when one critically examines the proximal causes of wilderness accidents, even those caused by such ‘objective dangers’, it is apparent that many are due to ‘human factors’ or nontechnical skills. These are broadly defined as the continuous process of identifying and avoiding the activities, interactions and decisions that may jeopardise safe and effective response to adverse events. Objective dangers and adverse events are unavoidable, but the response to them is governed by how team dynamics, leadership and followership modes, situational awareness and experience may mitigate these risks or manage their consequences effectively. On the other hand, ignoring human factors during wilderness travel is predictive of wilderness accidents. This article outlines how an awareness of human factors may be used to reduce the risks of adventure travel significantly

p53 overexpression is a predictor of local recurrence after treatment for both in situ and invasive ductal carcinoma of the breast

Background. Several biological markers have been related to prognosis in mammary ductal carcinoma. The aim of the study was to determine biological markers that could predict local recurrence following treatment for all stages of primary operable ductal carcinoma of the breast. Materials and methods. A consecutive series of patients treated for pure ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS, n = 110) and invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC, n = 243) was studied. Twenty-three patients with DCIS were excluded because of lack of original paraffin embedded tissue. All patients had been treated between July 1996 and December 2001. Median follow-up was 49.8 mo. From the original paraffin embedded tumors, tissue microarrays (TMAs) were constructed. On these TMAs, immunohistochemistry was performed for estrogen-receptor (ER), progesterone-receptor (PR), Her2/neu, p53, and cyclin D1. Main outcome was the event of LR. All analyses were stratified for diagnosis (DCIS or IDC) and pathological grade. Results. In univariate analyses, Her2/neu overexpression (hazard ratio [HR] 3.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-8.7, P = 0.032) and p53 overexpression (HR 3.5, 95% Cl 1.3-9.3, P = 0.014) were associated with LR in patients treated for both DCIS and IDC. In multivariate analysis, p53 overexpression (HR 3.0, 95% CI 1.1-8.2, P = 0.036 and HR 4.4,95% Cl 1.5-12.9, P = 0.008) and adjuvant radiotherapy (HR 0.2, 95% Cl 0.1-0.8, P = 0.026) were independent common predictors of LR in patients who had received treatment for both DCIS and IDC. Conclusions. p53 overexpression is a common predictor of LR following treatment for all stages of primary operable ductal carcinoma of the breast. This marker may help in planning optimal treatment and follow-up. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Estimating a frequency unseen:an application to ornithology

The second author is involved in a capture-mark-recapture study of some wader species. Part of his program deals with resight observations. On a particular day he visually inspects a fairly stable population to identify the ringed birds by reading their ring-number. Some ringed birds will be missed, so observations are repeated on other days. The issue of main interest is whether, after some repetitions, we can be sufficiently sure that all the ringed birds in the population have been identified or, equivalently, that the frequency of unseen birds is zero. Most current theory is concerned with an asymptotic setting. In our 'exact' context the emphasis is on the determination of the 'probability' that the frequency of unseen birds is zero. This issue is settled by considering the more general problem of 'estimating' the frequency of the unseen birds by providing a predictive inference in the form of a probability distribution. We develop methods of inference based on the assumption of a bird-independent probability p(i) of identifying a ringed bird on day i, as well as without this assumption. In Section 5 we critically examine these approaches