Spatial GHG inventory in the agriculture sector and uncertainty analysis: A case study for Poland

Estimation of uncertainties is an important part of complete inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Information on uncertainty is intended not only to question the reliability of inventory estimates, but to assist in the identifying priority measures to improve the quality of future inventories. This article discusses bottom-up inventory from the agricultural sector in Poland. Accordingly to the developed geoinformation approach area-type sources of emission (arable lands, rural localities) were investigated. In implemented mathematical models for the estimation of GHG emissions from agricultural activity the statistical data on animal and crop production, as well as specific emission factors were used. Methods for the spatial inventory of GHG emissions from agricultural sources, taking into account the specifics of animal nutrition, are described. Monte-Carlo method was applied for a detailed estimation of uncertainty "from category to category," because uncertainties of input parameters (CH4 and N2O emission factors) are large and non-normally distributed (95% confidence interval). The land use map is used to calculate the territorial distribution of GHG emissions. The structure of total GHG emissions on different categories of animal sector and agricultural soils sector by type of GHG is presented and visualised as digital maps. Analysis of uncertainty of GHG inventory results were carried out for voivodeships. Results are presented as sets of numerical values of the bounds of confidence intervals for the main GHGs and at different levels of spatial disaggregation. The improving of knowledge on territories, where emissions took places, enables us to better inventory process and reduce the overall uncertainty

Development of a high-resolution spatial inventory of greenhouse gas emissions for Poland from stationary and mobile sources

Greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories at national or provincial levels include the total emissions as well as the emissions for many categories of human activity, but there is a need for spatially explicit GHG emission inventories. Hence, the aim of this research was to outline a methodology for producing a high-resolution spatially explicit emission inventory, demonstrated for Poland. GHG emission sources were classified into point, line, and area types and then combined to calculate the total emissions. We created vector maps of all sources for all categories of economic activity covered by the IPCC guidelines, using official information about companies, the administrative maps, Corine Land Cover, and other available data. We created the algorithms for the disaggregation of these data to the level of elementary objects such as emission sources. The algorithms used depend on the categories of economic activity under investigation. We calculated the emissions of carbon, nitrogen sulfure and other GHG compounds (e.g., CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NMVOC) as well as total emissions in the CO2-equivalent. Gridded data were only created in the final stage to present the summarized emissions of very diverse sources from all categories. In our approach, information on the administrative assignment of corresponding emission sources is retained, which makes it possible to aggregate the final results to different administrative levels including municipalities, which is not possible using a traditional gridded emission approach. We demonstrate that any grid size can be chosen to match the aim of the spatial inventory, but not less than 100 m in this example, which corresponds to the coarsest resolution of the input datasets. We then considered the uncertainties in the statistical data, the calorific values, and the emission factors, with symmetric and asymmetric (lognormal) distributions. Using the Monte Carlo method, uncertainties, expressed using 95% confidence intervals, were estimated for high point-type emission sources, the provinces, and the subsectors. Such an approach is flexible, provided the data are available, and can be applied to other countries

Conditionally autoregressive model for spatial disaggregation of activity data in GHG inventory: Application for agriculture sector in Poland

This report presents a novel approach for allocation of spatially correlated data, such as emission inventories, into finer spatial scales conditional on covariate information observable in a fine grid. Spatial dependence is modelled with the conditional autoregressive structure introduced into a linear model as a random effect. The maximum likelihood approach to inference is employed, and the optimal predictors are developed to assess missing values in a fine grid. The usefulness of the proposed technique is shown for agricultural sector of GHG inventory in Poland. An example of allocation of livestock data (a number of horses) from district to municipality level is analysed. The results indicate that the proposed method outperforms a naive and commonly used approach of proportional distribution

Uncertainty associated with fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) gridded emission datasets

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion (FFCO2) serves as a reference in carbon budget analysis and thus needs to be accurately quantified. FFCO2 estimates from different emission inventories often agree well at global and national level, however their subnational emission spatial distributions are unique and subject to uncertainty in the proxy data used for disaggregation of country emissions. In this study, we attempt to assess the uncertainty associated with emission spatial distributions in gridded FFCO2 emission inventories. We compared emission distributions from four gridded inventories at a 1 W 1 degree resolution and used the differences as a proxy for uncertainty. The calculated uncertainties typically range from 30% to 200% and inversely correlated with the emission magnitude. We also discuss limitations of our approach and possible difficulties when implemented at a higher spatial resolution

High resolution spatial inventory of GHG emissions emissions from stationary and mobile sources in Poland: summarized results and uncertainty analysis

Greenhouse gases (GHG) inventories at national or regional levels include the total emissions and emissions for many categories of economic activity. The aim of our research is to analyze the high resolution spatial distributions of emissions for all categories of economic activity in Poland. GHG emission sources are classified into point-, line- and area-type sources. We created maps of such sources for all categories of economic activities covered by IPCC Guidelines, using official information of companies, administrative maps, Corine Land Cover maps, and other available data. The worst resolution is for area-type sources (100 m). We used statistical data at the lowest level as possible (regions, districts, and municipalities). We created the algorithms for these data disaggregation to the level of elementary objects for GHG spatial inventory. These algorithms depend on category of economic activity and cover all categories under investigation. We analyzed emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NMVOC, and others, and we calculated the total emissions in CO2-equivalent. We used a grid to calculate the summarizing emissions from the all categories. The grid size depends on the aim of spatial inventory, but it can't be less than 100 m. For uncertainty analysis we used uncertainty of statistical data, uncertainty of calorific values, and uncertainty of emission factors, with symmetric and asymmetric (lognormal) distributions. On this basis and using Monte-Carlo method the 95% confidence intervals of results' uncertainties were estimated for big point-type emission source, the regions, and the subsectors

Evidence for the impact of the 8.2-kyBP climate event on Near Eastern early farmers.

The 8.2-thousand years B.P. event is evident in multiple proxy records across the globe, showing generally dry and cold conditions for ca. 160 years. Environmental changes around the event are mainly detected using geochemical or palynological analyses of ice cores, lacustrine, marine, and other sediments often distant from human settlements. The Late Neolithic excavated area of the archaeological site of Çatalhöyük East [Team Poznań (TP) area] was occupied for four centuries in the ninth and eighth millennia B.P., thus encompassing the 8.2-thousand years B.P. climatic event. A Bayesian analysis of 56 radiocarbon dates yielded a high-resolution chronological model comprising six building phases, with dates ranging from before 8325-8205 to 7925-7815 calibrated years (cal) B.P. Here, we correlate an onsite paleoclimate record constructed from δ2H values of lipid biomarkers preserved in pottery vessels recovered from these buildings with changes in architectural, archaeozoological, and consumption records from well-documented archaeological contexts. The overall sequence shows major changes in husbandry and consumption practices at ca. 8.2 thousand years B.P., synchronous with variations in the δ2H values of the animal fat residues. Changes in paleoclimate and archaeological records seem connected with the patterns of atmospheric precipitation during the occupation of the TP area predicted by climate modeling. Our multiproxy approach uses records derived directly from documented archaeological contexts. Through this, we provide compelling evidence for the specific impacts of the 8.2-thousand years B.P. climatic event on the economic and domestic activities of pioneer Neolithic farmers, influencing decisions relating to settlement planning and food procurement strategies

Inventing the Neolithic? Putting evidence-based interpretation back into the study of faunal remains from causewayed enclosures.

ArticleThis is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in World Archaeology on 2015, available online: http://wwww.tandfonline.com/10.1080/00438243.2015.1072476The paper argues that our current understanding of the animal bones from causewayed enclosure sites in Britain is flawed. During the 1980-90s, a number of key interpretations, still frequently espoused, were based more upon anecdote and theory-driven assertion than on empirical evidence. An example is that evidence of bone processing (butchery and bone fracture) does not feature heavily in the faunal record from causewayed enclosures. Using data from the sites of Etton and Staines, this view must now be questioned. Both butchery and peri-mortem bone fracture are present in these assemblages in substantial quantities. These sites are compared with Ludwinowo 7, a Linearbandkeramik settlement site in Poland and there are considerable similarities between the three different sites. This suggests possibility that the broader economic utility of animal bone assemblages at causewayed enclosures has been underestimated, having been, up to now, regarded as ‘not indicative of domestic settlement’

Errors and uncertainties in a gridded carbon dioxide emissions inventory

Emission inventories (EIs) are the fundamental tool to monitor compliance with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and emission reduction commitments. Inventory accounting guidelines provide the best practices to help EI compilers across different countries and regions make comparable, national emission estimates regardless of differences in data availability. However, there are a variety of sources of error and uncertainty that originate beyond what the inventory guidelines can define. Spatially explicit EIs, which are a key product for atmospheric modeling applications, are often developed for research purposes and there are no specific guidelines to achieve spatial emission estimates. The errors and uncertainties associated with the spatial estimates are unique to the approaches employed and are often difficult to assess. This study compares the global, high-resolution (1 km), fossil fuel, carbon dioxide (CO2), gridded EI Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC) with the multi-resolution, spatially explicit bottom-up EI geoinformation technologies, spatio-temporal approaches, and full carbon account for improving the accuracy of GHG inventories (GESAPU) over the domain of Poland. By taking full advantage of the data granularity that bottom-up EI offers, this study characterized the potential biases in spatial disaggregation by emission sector (point and non-point emissions) across different scales (national, subnational/regional, and urban policy-relevant scales) and identified the root causes. While two EIs are in agreement in total and sectoral emissions (2.2% for the total emissions), the emission spatial patterns showed large differences (10~100% relative differences at 1 km) especially at the urban-rural transitioning areas (90–100%). We however found that the agreement of emissions over urban areas is surprisingly good compared with the estimates previously reported for US cities. This paper also discusses the use of spatially explicit EIs for climate mitigation applications beyond the common use in atmospheric modeling. We conclude with a discussion of current and future challenges of EIs in support of successful implementation of GHG emission monitoring and mitigation activity under the Paris Climate Agreement from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21). We highlight the importance of capacity building for EI development and coordinated research efforts of EI, atmospheric observations, and modeling to overcome the challenges

Between the Vinča and Linearbandkeramik worlds: the diversity of practices and identities in the 54th–53rd centuries cal BC in south-west Hungary and beyond

Szederkény-Kukorica-dűlő is a large settlement in south-east Transdanubia, Hungary, excavated in advance of road construction, which is notable for its combination of pottery styles, variously including Vinča A, Ražište and LBK, and longhouses of a kind otherwise familiar from the LBK world. Formal modelling of its date establishes that the site probably began in the later 54th century cal BC, lasting until the first decades of the 52nd century cal BC. Occupation, featuring longhouses, pits and graves, probably began at the same time on the east and west parts of the settlement, the central part starting a decade or two later; the western part was probably abandoned last. Vinča pottery is predominantly associated with the east and central parts of the site, and Ražište pottery with the west. Formal modelling of the early history and diaspora of longhouses in the LBK world suggests their emergence in the Formative LBK of Transdanubia c. 5500 cal BC and then rapid diaspora in the middle of the 54th century cal BC, associated with the ‘earliest’ (älteste) LBK. The adoption of longhouses at Szederkény thus appears to come a few generations after the start of the diaspora. Rather than explaining the mixture of things, practices and perhaps people at Szederkény by reference to problematic notions such as hybridity, we propose instead a more fluid and varied vocabulary including combination and amalgamation, relationships and performance in the flow of social life, and networks; this makes greater allowance for diversity and interleaving in a context of rapid change