Exact asymptotic analysis for metapopulation dynamics on correlated dynamic landscapes

We compute the mean patch occupancy for a stochastic, spatially explicit patch-occupancy metapopulation model on a dynamic, correlated landscape, using a mathematically exact perturbation expansion about a mean-field limit that applies when dispersal range is large. Stochasticity in the metapopulation and landscape dynamics gives negative contributions to patch occupancy, the former being more important at high occupancy and the latter at low occupancy. Positive landscape correlations always benefit the metapopulation, but are only significant when the correlation length is comparable to, or smaller than, the dispersal range. Our analytical results allow us to consider the importance of spatial kernels in all generality. We find that the shape of the landscape correlation function is typically unimportant, and that the variance is overwhelmingly the most important property of the colonisation kernel. However, short-range singularities in either the colonisation kernel or landscape correlations can give rise to qualitatively different behaviour

Reduction of a metapopulation genetic model to an effective one island model

We explore a model of metapopulation genetics which is based on a more ecologically motivated approach than is frequently used in population genetics. The size of the population is regulated by competition between individuals, rather than by artificially imposing a fixed population size. The increased complexity of the model is managed by employing techniques often used in the physical sciences, namely exploiting time-scale separation to eliminate fast variables and then constructing an effective model from the slow modes. Remarkably, an initial model with 2$\mathcal{D}$ variables, where $\mathcal{D}$ is the number of islands in the metapopulation, can be reduced to a model with a single variable. We analyze this effective model and show that the predictions for the probability of fixation of the alleles and the mean time to fixation agree well with those found from numerical simulations of the original model.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figures. Supplementary material: 22 pages, 3 figure

How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. Significance: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics

A Computational Approach for Designing Tiger Corridors in India

Wildlife corridors are components of landscapes, which facilitate the movement of organisms and processes between intact habitat areas, and thus provide connectivity between the habitats within the landscapes. Corridors are thus regions within a given landscape that connect fragmented habitat patches within the landscape. The major concern of designing corridors as a conservation strategy is primarily to counter, and to the extent possible, mitigate the effects of habitat fragmentation and loss on the biodiversity of the landscape, as well as support continuance of land use for essential local and global economic activities in the region of reference. In this paper, we use game theory, graph theory, membership functions and chain code algorithm to model and design a set of wildlife corridors with tiger (Panthera tigris tigris) as the focal species. We identify the parameters which would affect the tiger population in a landscape complex and using the presence of these identified parameters construct a graph using the habitat patches supporting tiger presence in the landscape complex as vertices and the possible paths between them as edges. The passage of tigers through the possible paths have been modelled as an Assurance game, with tigers as an individual player. The game is played recursively as the tiger passes through each grid considered for the model. The iteration causes the tiger to choose the most suitable path signifying the emergence of adaptability. As a formal explanation of the game, we model this interaction of tiger with the parameters as deterministic finite automata, whose transition function is obtained by the game payoff.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, 6 tables, NGCT conference 201

A niche perspective on the range expansion of symbionts

Range expansion results from complex eco-evolutionary processes where range dynamics and niche shifts interact in a novel physical space and/or environment, with scale playing a major role. Obligate symbionts (i.e. organisms permanently living on hosts) differ from free-living organisms in that they depend on strong biotic interactions with their hosts which alter their niche and spatial dynamics. A symbiotic lifestyle modifies organism–environment relationships across levels of organisation, from individuals to geographical ranges. These changes influence how symbionts experience colonisation and, by extension, range expansion. Here, we investigate the potential implications of a symbiotic lifestyle on range expansion capacity. We present a unified conceptual overview on range expansion of symbionts that integrates concepts grounded in niche and metapopulation theories. Overall, we explain how niche-driven and dispersal-driven processes govern symbiont range dynamics through their interaction across scales, from host switching to geographical range shifts. First, we describe a background framework for range dynamics based on metapopulation concepts applied to symbiont organisation levels. Then, we integrate metapopulation processes operating in the physical space with niche dynamics grounded in the environmental arena. For this purpose, we provide a definition of the biotope (i.e. living place) specific to symbionts as a hinge concept to link the physical and environmental spaces, wherein the biotope unit is a metapopulation patch (either a host individual or a land fragment). Further, we highlight the dual nature of the symbionts' niche, which is characterised by both host traits and the external environment, and define proper conceptual variants to provide a meaningful unification of niche, biotope and symbiont organisation levels. We also explore variation across systems in the relative relevance of both external environment and host traits to the symbiont's niche and their potential implications on range expansion. We describe in detail the potential mechanisms by which hosts, through their function as biotopes, could influence how some symbionts expand their range – depending on the life history and traits of both associates. From the spatial point of view, hosts can extend symbiont dispersal range via host-mediated dispersal, although the requirement for among-host dispersal can challenge symbiont range expansion. From the niche point of view, homeostatic properties of host bodies may allow symbiont populations to become insensitive to off-host environmental gradients during host-mediated dispersal. These two potential benefits of the symbiont–host interaction can enhance symbiont range expansion capacity. On the other hand, the central role of hosts governing the symbiont niche makes symbionts strongly dependent on the availability of suitable hosts. Thus, environmental, dispersal and biotic barriers faced by suitable hosts apply also to the symbiont, unless eventual opportunities for host switching allow the symbiont to expand its repertoire of suitable hosts (thus expanding its fundamental niche). Finally, symbionts can also improve their range expansion capacity through their impacts on hosts, via protecting their affiliated hosts from environmental harshness through biotic facilitation.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Layered mafic-ultramafic intrusions of Fennoscandia: Europe's treasure chest of magmatic metal deposits

Northeastern Fennoscandia hosts a rich diversity of mafic-ultramafic intrusions of variable shape and size, emplaced in different tectonic regimes over a period spanning ca. 600 million years (from 1.88 – 2.5 Ga). Several of the bodies contain world-class ore deposits, notably the Kemi Cr deposit and the Pechenga Ni deposits. Other deposits include Ni and Cu at Kevitsa, Kotalahti and Sakatti, V at Koillismaa, and platinum-group elements at Portimo and Penikat. These deposits constitute important resources to shield Europe from potential future supply shortages of key industrial metals

The mode of host-parasite interaction shapes coevolutionary dynamics and the fate of host cooperation

Antagonistic coevolution between hosts and parasites can have a major impact on host population structures, and hence on the evolution of social traits. Using stochastic modelling techniques in the context of bacteria-virus interactions, we investigate the impact of coevolution across a continuum of host-parasite genetic specificity (specifically, where genotypes have the same infectivity/resistance ranges (matching alleles, MA) to highly variable ranges (gene-for-gene, GFG)) on population genetic structure, and on the social behaviour of the host. We find that host cooperation is more likely to be maintained towards the MA end of the continuum, as the more frequent bottlenecks associated with an MA-like interaction can prevent defector invasion, and can even allow migrant cooperators to invade populations of defectors.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, 1 Supplementary Material file attached (to view it, please download the source file listed under "Other formats"

Host--parasite models on graphs

The behavior of two interacting populations, ``hosts''and ``parasites'', is investigated on Cayley trees and scale-free networks. In the former case analytical and numerical arguments elucidate a phase diagram, whose most interesting feature is the absence of a tri-critical point as a function of the two independent spreading parameters. For scale-free graphs, the parasite population can be described effectively by Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible-type dynamics in a host background. This is shown both by considering the appropriate dynamical equations and by numerical simulations on Barab\'asi-Albert networks with the major implication that in the termodynamic limit the critical parasite spreading parameter vanishes.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, submitted to PRE; analytics redone, new calculations added, references added, appendix remove

Contagion dynamics in time-varying metapopulation networks

The metapopulation framework is adopted in a wide array of disciplines to describe systems of well separated yet connected subpopulations. The subgroups or patches are often represented as nodes in a network whose links represent the migration routes among them. The connections have been so far mostly considered as static, but in general evolve in time. Here we address this case by investigating simple contagion processes on time-varying metapopulation networks. We focus on the SIR process and determine analytically the mobility threshold for the onset of an epidemic spreading in the framework of activity-driven network models. We find profound differences from the case of static networks. The threshold is entirely described by the dynamical parameters defining the average number of instantaneously migrating individuals and does not depend on the properties of the static network representation. Remarkably, the diffusion and contagion processes are slower in time-varying graphs than in their aggregated static counterparts, the mobility threshold being even two orders of magnitude larger in the first case. The presented results confirm the importance of considering the time-varying nature of complex networks