Assessing Confidence Intervals for the Tail Index by Edgeworth Expansions for the Hill Estimator

AMS classifications: 62G20, 62G32;asymptotic normality;confidence intervals;Edgeworth expansions;extreme value index;Hill estimator;regular variation;tail index

Interacting electrons in polygonal quantum dots

The low-lying eigenstates of a system of two electrons confined within a two-dimensional quantum dot with a hard polygonal boundary are obtained by means of exact diagonalization. The transition from a weakly correlated charge distribution for small dots to a strongly correlated "Wigner molecule" for large dots is studied, and the behaviour at the crossover is determined. In sufficiently large dots, a recently proposed mapping to an effective charge-spin model is investigated, and is found to produce the correct ordering of the energy levels and to give a good first approximation to the size of the level spacings. We conclude that this approach is a valuable method to obtain the low energy spectrum of few-electron quantum dots

Assessing Confidence Intervals for the Tail Index by Edgeworth Expansions for the Hill Estimator

AMS classifications: 62G20, 62G32;

Increasing variability of body mass and health correlates in Swiss conscripts, a possible role of relaxed natural selection?

Background and objectives The body mass index (BMI) is an established anthropometric index for the development of obesity related conditions. However, little is known about the distribution of BMI within a population, especially about this distribution’s temporal change. Here, we analysed changes in the distribution of height, weight and BMI over the past 140 years based on data of Swiss conscripts and tested for correlations between anthropometric data and standard blood parameters. Methods Height and weight were measured in 59,504 young Swiss males aged 18-19 years during conscription in 1875-79, 1932-36, 1994 and 2010-12. For 65% of conscripts in 2010-12 results of standard blood analysis were available. We calculated descriptive statistics of the distribution of height, weight, and BMI over the four time periods and tested for associations between BMI and metabolic parameters. Results Average and median body height, body weight and BMI increased over time. Height did no longer increase between 1994 and 2010-12, while weight and BMI still increased over these two decades. Variability ranges of weight and BMI increased over time, while variation of body height remained constant. Elevated levels of metabolic and inflammatory blood parameters were found at both ends of BMI distribution. Conclusions and Implications Both overweight and underweight subgroups showed similar changes in inflammation parameters, pointing towards related metabolic deficiencies in both conditions. In addition to environmental influences, our results indicate a potential role of relaxed natural selection on genes affecting metabolism and body composition

Predicting Infectious ComplicatioNs in Children with Cancer : an external validation study

Background:The aim of this study was to validate the 'Predicting Infectious ComplicatioNs in Children with Cancer' (PICNICC) clinical decision rule (CDR) that predicts microbiologically documented infection (MDI) in children with cancer and fever and neutropenia (FN). We also investigated costs associated with current FN management strategies in Australia.Methods:Demographic, episode, outcome and cost data were retrospectively collected on 650 episodes of FN. We assessed the discrimination, calibration, sensitivity and specificity of the PICNICC CDR in our cohort compared with the derivation data set.Results:Using the original variable coefficients, the CDR performed poorly. After recalibration the PICNICC CDR had an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) curve of 0.638 (95% CI 0.590-0.685) and calibration slope of 0.24. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the PICNICC CDR at presentation was 78.4%, 39.8%, 28.6% and 85.7%, respectively. For bacteraemia, the sensitivity improved to 85.2% and AUC-ROC to 0.71. Application at day 2, taking into consideration the proportion of MDI known (43%), further improved the sensitivity to 87.7%. Length of stay is the main contributor to cost of FN treatment, with an average cost per day of AUD 2183 in the low-risk group.Conclusions:For prediction of any MDI, the PICNICC rule did not perform as well at presentation in our cohort as compared with the derivation study. However, for bacteraemia, the predictive ability was similar to that of the derivation study, highlighting the importance of recalibration using local data. Performance also improved after an overnight period of observation. Implementation of a low-risk pathway, using the PICNICC CDR after a short period of inpatient observation, is likely to be safe and has the potential to reduce health-care expenditure

Frequency of Hemorrhage on Follow Up Imaging in Stroke Patients Treated With rt-PA Depending on Clinical Course

Background: According to current guidelines, stroke patients treated with rt-PA should undergo brain imaging to exclude intracerebral bleeding 24 h after thrombolysis, before the start of medical secondary prevention. However, the usefulness of routine follow-up imaging with regard to changes in therapeutic management in patients without neurological deterioration is unclear. We hypothesized that follow up brain imaging solely to exclude bleeding in patients who clinically improved after rt-PA application may not be necessary. Methods: Retrospective single-center analysis including stroke patients treated with rt-PA. Records were reviewed for hemorrhagic transformation one day after systemic thrombolysis and brain imaging-based changes in therapeutic management. Twenty-four hour after thrombolysis patients were divided into four groups: (1) increased NIHSS score; (2) unchanged NIHSS score; (3) improved NIHSS score and; (4) NIHSS score = 0. Results: Out of 188 patients (mean age 73 years, 100 female) receiving rt-PA, 32 (17%) had imaging-proven hemorrhagic transformation including 11 (6%) patients with parenchymal hemorrhage. Patients in group (1, 2) more often had hypertension (p = 0.015) and more often had parenchymal hemorrhage (9 vs. 4%; p < 0.206) compared to group (3, 4) and imaging-based changes in therapeutic management were more frequent (19% vs. 6%; p = 0.007). Patients of group (3, 4) had no changes in therapeutic management in 94% of the cases. Patients in group (4) had no hemorrhagic transformation in routine follow-up brain imaging. Conclusions: Frequency of hemorrhagic transformation in Routine follow-up brain imaging and consecutive changes in therapeutic management were different depending on clinical course measured by NHISS score

Frequency of Hemorrhage on Follow Up Imaging in Stroke Patients Treated With rt-PA Depending on Clinical Course

Background: According to current guidelines, stroke patients treated with rt-PA should undergo brain imaging to exclude intracerebral bleeding 24 h after thrombolysis, before the start of medical secondary prevention. However, the usefulness of routine follow-up imaging with regard to changes in therapeutic management in patients without neurological deterioration is unclear. We hypothesized that follow up brain imaging solely to exclude bleeding in patients who clinically improved after rt-PA application may not be necessary. Methods: Retrospective single-center analysis including stroke patients treated with rt-PA. Records were reviewed for hemorrhagic transformation one day after systemic thrombolysis and brain imaging-based changes in therapeutic management. Twenty-four hour after thrombolysis patients were divided into four groups: (1) increased NIHSS score; (2) unchanged NIHSS score; (3) improved NIHSS score and; (4) NIHSS score = 0. Results: Out of 188 patients (mean age 73 years, 100 female) receiving rt-PA, 32 (17%) had imaging-proven hemorrhagic transformation including 11 (6%) patients with parenchymal hemorrhage. Patients in group (1, 2) more often had hypertension (p = 0.015) and more often had parenchymal hemorrhage (9 vs. 4%; p < 0.206) compared to group (3, 4) and imaging-based changes in therapeutic management were more frequent (19% vs. 6%; p = 0.007). Patients of group (3, 4) had no changes in therapeutic management in 94% of the cases. Patients in group (4) had no hemorrhagic transformation in routine follow-up brain imaging. Conclusions: Frequency of hemorrhagic transformation in Routine follow-up brain imaging and consecutive changes in therapeutic management were different depending on clinical course measured by NHISS score