Spatiotemporal Analysis of the January Northern Hemisphere Circumpolar Vortex Over the Contiguous United States

January 2014 will be remembered for the sensationalized media usage of the term polar vortex which coincided with several polar air outbreaks. A United States polar vortex (USPV) perspective is presented to better understand the January spatial and temporal variability of this regional component of the Northern Hemisphere circumpolar vortex. Use of the monthly mean 5460 m isohypse to represent the location of the USPV extent and area revealed that the spatial features of the January 2014 USPV were not extreme relative to certain 1948–2013 Januaries. Furthermore, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American (PNA) Pattern, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are all linked to southernmost latitude of the USPV trough, but the PDO and PNA are most closely associated with the longitude at which this latitude occurs. The AO is closely related to the area of the United States enclosed within the USPV

Hypofractionated image-guided breath-hold SABR (Stereotactic Ablative Body Radiotherapy) of liver metastases - clinical results

Purpose: Stereotactic Ablative Body Radiotherapy (SABR) is a non-invasive therapy option for inoperable liver oligometastases. Outcome and toxicity were retrospectively evaluated in a single-institution patient cohort who had undergone ultrasound-guided breath-hold SABR. Patients and methods: 19 patients with liver metastases of various primary tumors consecutively treated with SABR (image-guidance with stereotactic ultrasound in combination with computer-controlled breath-hold) were analysed regarding overall-survival (OS), progression-free-survival (PFS), progression pattern, local control (LC), acute and late toxicity. Results: PTV (planning target volume)-size was 108 +/- 109cm(3) (median 67.4 cm(3)). BED2 (Biologically effective dose in 2 Gy fraction) was 83.3 +/- 26.2 Gy (median 78 Gy). Median follow-up and median OS were 12 months. Actuarial 2-year-OS-rate was 31%. Median PFS was 4 months, actuarial 1-year-PFS-rate was 20%. Site of first progression was predominantly distant. Regression of irradiated lesions was observed in 84% (median time to detection of regression was 2 months). Actuarial 6-month-LC-rate was 92%, 1- and 2-years-LC-rate 57%, respectively. BED2 influenced LC. When a cut-off of BED2 = 78 Gy was used, the higher BED2 values resulted in improved local control with a statistical trend to significance (p = 0.0999). Larger PTV-sizes, inversely correlated with applied dose, resulted in lower local control, also with a trend to significance (p-value = 0.08) when a volume cut-off of 67 cm(3) was used. No local relapse was observed at PTV-sizes < 67 cm(3) and BED2 > 78 Gy. No acute clinical toxicity > degrees 2 was observed. Late toxicity was also <= degrees 2 with the exception of one gastrointestinal bleeding-episode 1 year post-SABR. A statistically significant elevation in the acute phase was observed for alkaline-phosphatase; in the chronic phase for alkaline-phosphatase, bilirubine, cholinesterase and C-reactive protein. Conclusions: A trend to statistically significant correlation of local progression was observed for BED2 and PTV-size. Dose-levels BED2 > 78 Gy cannot be reached in large lesions constituting a significant fraction of this series. Image-guided SABR (igSABR) is therefore an effective non-invasive treatment modality with low toxicity in patients with small inoperable liver metastases

Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report. The Report included predictions of dramatic increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years and serious harm resulting from the predicted temperature increases. Using forecasting principles as our guide we asked: Are these forecasts a good basis for developing public policy? Our answer is “no”. To provide forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making, one would need to forecast (1) global temperature, (2) the effects of any temperature changes, and (3) the effects of feasible alternative policies. Proper forecasts of all three are necessary for rational policy making. The IPCC WG1 Report was regarded as providing the most credible long-term forecasts of global average temperatures by 31 of the 51 scientists and others involved in forecasting climate change who responded to our survey. We found no references in the 1056-page Report to the primary sources of information on forecasting methods despite the fact these are conveniently available in books, articles, and websites. We audited the forecasting processes described in Chapter 8 of the IPCC’s WG1 Report to assess the extent to which they complied with forecasting principles. We found enough information to make judgments on 89 out of a total of 140 forecasting principles. The forecasting procedures that were described violated 72 principles. Many of the violations were, by themselves, critical. The forecasts in the Report were not the outcome of scientific procedures. In effect, they were the opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics and obscured by complex writing. Research on forecasting has shown that experts’ predictions are not useful in situations involving uncertainly and complexity. We have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts of global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder

The performance of FLake in the Met Office Unified Model

We present results from the coupling of FLake to the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). The coupling and initialisation are first described, and the results of testing the coupled model in local and global model configurations are presented. These show that FLake has a small statistical impact on screen temperature, but has the potential to modify the weather in the vicinity of areas of significant inland water. Examination of FLake lake ice has revealed that the behaviour of lakes in the coupled model is unrealistic in some areas of significant sub-grid orography. Tests of various modifications to ameliorate this behaviour are presented. The results indicate which of the possible model changes best improve the annual cycle of lake ice. As FLake has been developed and tuned entirely outside the Unified Model system, these results can be interpreted as a useful objective measure of the performance of the Unified Model in terms of its near-surface characteristics

Sediment and nutrient delivery from thermokarst features in the foothills of the North Slope, Alaska : potential impacts on headwater stream ecosystems

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): G02026, doi:10.1029/2007JG000470.Permafrost is a defining characteristic of the Arctic environment. However, climate warming is thawing permafrost in many areas leading to failures in soil structure called thermokarst. An extensive survey of a 600 km2 area in and around the Toolik Lake Natural Research Area (TLNRA) revealed at least 34 thermokarst features, two thirds of which were new since ∼1980 when a high resolution aerial survey of the area was done. Most of these thermokarst features were associated with headwater streams or lakes. We have measured significantly increased sediment and nutrient loading from thermokarst features to streams in two well-studied locations near the TLNRA. One small thermokarst gully that formed in 2003 on the Toolik River in a 0.9 km2 subcatchment delivered more sediment to the river than is normally delivered in 18 years from 132 km2 in the adjacent upper Kuparuk River basin (a long-term monitoring reference site). Ammonium, nitrate, and phosphate concentrations downstream from a thermokarst feature on Imnavait Creek increased significantly compared to upstream reference concentrations and the increased concentrations persisted over the period of sampling (1999–2005). The downstream concentrations were similar to those we have used in a long-term experimental manipulation of the Kuparuk River and that have significantly altered the structure and function of that river. A subsampling of other thermokarst features from the extensive regional survey showed that concentrations of ammonium, nitrate, and phosphate were always higher downstream of the thermokarst features. Our previous research has shown that even minor increases in nutrient loading stimulate primary and secondary production. However, increased sediment loading could interfere with benthic communities and change the responses to increased nutrient delivery. Although the terrestrial area impacted by thermokarsts is limited, the aquatic habitat altered by these failures can be extensive. If warming in the Arctic foothills accelerates thermokarst formation, there may be substantial and wide-spread impacts on arctic stream ecosystems that are currently poorly understood.The results presented in this report are based upon work supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under grants to the Arctic Hyporheic project (OPP- 0327440) and the Arctic Long-Term Ecological Research Program (DEB- 9810222)

SecM-Stalled Ribosomes Adopt an Altered Geometry at the Peptidyl Transferase Center

A structure of a ribosome stalled during translation of the SecM peptide provides insight into the mechanism by which the large subunit active site is inactivated

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

The Arctic freshwater system : changes and impacts

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): G04S54, doi:10.1029/2006JG000353.Dramatic changes have been observed in the Arctic over the last century. Many of these involve the storage and cycling of fresh water. On land, precipitation and river discharge, lake abundance and size, glacier area and volume, soil moisture, and a variety of permafrost characteristics have changed. In the ocean, sea ice thickness and areal coverage have decreased and water mass circulation patterns have shifted, changing freshwater pathways and sea ice cover dynamics. Precipitation onto the ocean surface has also changed. Such changes are expected to continue, and perhaps accelerate, in the coming century, enhanced by complex feedbacks between the oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial freshwater systems. Change to the arctic freshwater system heralds changes for our global physical and ecological environment as well as human activities in the Arctic. In this paper we review observed changes in the arctic freshwater system over the last century in terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic systems.The authors gratefully acknowledge the National Science Foundation (NSF) for funding this synthesis work. This paper is principally the work of authors funded under the NSF-funded Freshwater Integration (FWI) study