Analysis of Different Types of Regret in Continuous Noisy Optimization

The performance measure of an algorithm is a crucial part of its analysis. The performance can be determined by the study on the convergence rate of the algorithm in question. It is necessary to study some (hopefully convergent) sequence that will measure how "good" is the approximated optimum compared to the real optimum. The concept of Regret is widely used in the bandit literature for assessing the performance of an algorithm. The same concept is also used in the framework of optimization algorithms, sometimes under other names or without a specific name. And the numerical evaluation of convergence rate of noisy algorithms often involves approximations of regrets. We discuss here two types of approximations of Simple Regret used in practice for the evaluation of algorithms for noisy optimization. We use specific algorithms of different nature and the noisy sphere function to show the following results. The approximation of Simple Regret, termed here Approximate Simple Regret, used in some optimization testbeds, fails to estimate the Simple Regret convergence rate. We also discuss a recent new approximation of Simple Regret, that we term Robust Simple Regret, and show its advantages and disadvantages.Comment: Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference 2016, Jul 2016, Denver, United States. 201

Morphological variations of the mandibular canal in digital panoramic radiographs: a retrospective study in a Chilean population

Background: Morphological variations of the mandibular canal (MC) have been described in literature, so the clinician must be able to recognise them and adapt their treatment accordingly. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of morphological variations of the MC using digital panoramic radiographs (DPR) of Chilean patients.  Materials and methods: A retrospective study in which 1400 DPR were analysed to identify cases of bifid, trifid and retromolar MC. The radiographs were analysed independently by two examiners who had previously been trained by a specialist in oral and maxillofacial radiology. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to reach a final sample.  Results: Nine hundred and twenty-five radiographs were included (599 female, 326 male; mean age 36.1 ± 15.54 years). The prevalence of bifid MC was 11% (n = 102), with no significant differences by sex (p = 0.069). Proportion of bifid MC was higher among younger patients (p = 0.038). Prevalence of morphologi- cal variations of type 1 bifid MC was 7.4% (n = 69), type 2 was 2.3% (n = 23), type 3 was 0% (n = 0) and type 4 was 1.1% (n = 10). Prevalence of retromolar canal was 0.9% (n = 8), with no significant differences by sex (p = 0.893) or age (p = 0.371); of these, 2 (0.2%) cases were forward type and 6 (0.6%) cases were retromolar type. No cases of trifid MC were found.  Conclusions: Digital panoramic radiographs are useful for detecting morphological variations of the MC; we were able to identify three types of bifid MC as well as retromolar canals. Proper identification of these variations by an easily accessible examination is important for avoiding possible complications in clinical-surgical practice.

The genetic structure of Aedes aegypti populations is driven by boat traffic in the Peruvian Amazon.

In the Americas, as in much of the rest of the world, the dengue virus vector Aedes aegypti is found in close association with human habitations, often leading to high population densities of mosquitoes in urban settings. In the Peruvian Amazon, this vector has been expanding to rural communities over the last 10-15 years, but to date, the population genetic structure of Ae. aegypti in this region has not been characterized. To investigate the relationship between Ae. aegypti gene flow and human transportation networks, we characterized mosquito population structure using a panel of 8 microsatellite markers and linked results to various potential mechanisms for long-distance dispersal. Adult and immature Ae. aegypti (>20 individuals per site) were collected from Iquitos city and from six neighboring riverine communities, i.e., Nauta, Indiana, Mazan, Barrio Florida, Tamshiaco, and Aucayo. FST statistics indicate significant, but low to moderate differentiation for the majority of study site pairs. Population structure of Ae. aegypti is not correlated with the geographic distance between towns, suggesting that human transportation networks provide a reasonable explanation for the high levels of population mixing. Our results indicate that Ae. aegypti gene flow among sub-populations is greatest between locations with heavy boat traffic, such as Iquitos-Tamshiaco and Iquitos-Indiana-Mazan, and lowest between locations with little or no boat/road traffic between them such as Barrio Florida-Iquitos. Bayesian clustering analysis showed ancestral admixture among three genetic clusters; no single cluster was exclusive to any site. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that human transportation networks, particularly riverways, are responsible for the geographic spread of Ae. aegypti in the Peruvian Amazon. Our findings are applicable to other regions of the world characterized by networks of urban islands connected by fluvial transport routes

Estimating the impact of city-wide Aedes aegypti population control: An observational study in Iquitos, Peru.

During the last 50 years, the geographic range of the mosquito Aedes aegypti has increased dramatically, in parallel with a sharp increase in the disease burden from the viruses it transmits, including Zika, chikungunya, and dengue. There is a growing consensus that vector control is essential to prevent Aedes-borne diseases, even as effective vaccines become available. What remains unclear is how effective vector control is across broad operational scales because the data and the analytical tools necessary to isolate the effect of vector-oriented interventions have not been available. We developed a statistical framework to model Ae. aegypti abundance over space and time and applied it to explore the impact of citywide vector control conducted by the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Iquitos, Peru, over a 12-year period. Citywide interventions involved multiple rounds of intradomicile insecticide space spray over large portions of urban Iquitos (up to 40% of all residences) in response to dengue outbreaks. Our model captured significant levels of spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal variation in Ae. aegypti abundance within and between years and across the city. We estimated the shape of the relationship between the coverage of neighborhood-level vector control and reductions in female Ae. aegypti abundance; i.e., the dose-response curve. The dose-response curve, with its associated uncertainties, can be used to gauge the necessary spraying effort required to achieve a desired effect and is a critical tool currently absent from vector control programs. We found that with complete neighborhood coverage MoH intra-domicile space spray would decrease Ae. aegypti abundance on average by 67% in the treated neighborhood. Our framework can be directly translated to other interventions in other locations with geolocated mosquito abundance data. Results from our analysis can be used to inform future vector-control applications in Ae. aegypti endemic areas globally

Densidade Da Jaguatirica Em Um Ambiente Semiárido No Nordeste Do Brasil

Ocelots play a key role in ecological communities as mesopredators affecting the lower trophic level and other mesopredators. They show great variability in ecological traits across their distribution, but knowledge of this species is missing in several regions where it occurs. Here, we present the first study of ocelot in the Brazilian semiarid of Caatinga. Arid habitats might keep carnivore population density low and therefore vulnerable to environmental shocks and to human-induced changes, at risk of local extinction. To assess their population status, we used camera traps between September 2009 and January 2010. We estimated the density of ocelots using a spatially explicit capture-recapture method (SECR) to be 3.16 ± 0.46 individuals per 100 km2. This is a low-density estimate for ocelots, which might reflect the harsh conditions of the arid habitat. A longer population study of the ocelot can answer if this low population density is enough for a long-term persistence of this species in this and other arid environments. © 2016, Universidade Estadual de Campinas UNICAMP. All rights reserved.16

The impact of insecticide treated curtains on dengue virus transmission: A cluster randomized trial in Iquitos, Peru

Dengue is one of the most important vector-borne diseases, resulting in an estimated hundreds of millions of infections annually throughout the tropics. Control of dengue is heavily dependent upon control of its primary mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti. Innovative interventions that are effective at targeting the adult stage of the mosquito are needed to increase the options for effective control. The use of insecticide-treated curtains (ITCs) has previously been shown to significantly reduce the abundance of Ae. aegypti in and around homes, but the impact of ITCs on dengue virus (DENV) transmission has not been rigorously quantified. A parallel arm cluster-randomized controlled trial was conducted in Iquitos, Peru to quantify the impact of ITCs on DENV seroconversion as measured through plaque-reduction neutralization tests. Seroconversion data showed that individuals living in the clusters that received ITCs were at greater risk to seroconverting to DENV, with an average seroconversion rate of 50.6 per 100 person-years (PY) (CI: 29.9–71.9), while those in the control arm had an average seroconversion rate of 37.4 per 100 PY (CI: 15.2–51.7). ITCs lost their insecticidal efficacy within 6 months of deployment, necessitating re-treatment with insecticide. Entomological indicators did not show statistically significant differences between ITC and non-ITC clusters. It’s unclear how the lack of protective efficacy reported here is attributable to simple failure of the intervention to protect against Ae. aegypti bites, or the presence of a faulty intervention during much of the follow-up period. The higher risk of dengue seroconversion that was detected in the ITC clusters may have arisen due to a false sense of security that inadvertently led to less routine protective behaviors on the part of households that received the ITCs. Our study provides important lessons learned for conducting Randomized Cluster Trials for vector control interventions against Aedes-transmitted virus infections

Interventions for the control of Aedes aegypti in Latin America and the Caribbean: systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective: To determine the effectiveness and degree of implementation of interventions for the control of Aedes aegypti in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) as reported in scientific literature. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, SOCINDEX, and LILACS, for experimental and observational studies, economic assessments and qualitative experiences carried out in LAC from 2000 to 2016. We assessed incidence and morbimortality of Aedes aegypti-related diseases and entomological indices: Breteau (containers), House, and Pupae per Person. We used GRADE methodology for assessing quality of evidence. Results: Of 1826 records retrieved, 75 were included and 9 cluster randomised clinical trials could be meta-analysed. We did not identify any intervention supported by a high certainty of evidence. In consistency with qualitative evidence, health education and community engagement probably reduces the entomological indices, as do the use of insecticide-treated materials, indoor residual spraying and the management of containers. There is low certainty of evidence supporting the use of ovitraps or larvitraps, and the integrated epidemiological surveillance strategy to improve indices and reduce the incidence of dengue. The reported degree of implementation of these vector control interventions was variable and most did not extend to whole cities and were not sustained beyond 2 years. Conclusions: We found a general lack of evidence on effectiveness of vector control in the region, despite a few interventions that showed moderate to low certainty of evidence. It is important to engage and educate the community, apart from achieving the implementation of integrated actions between the health and other sectors at national and regional level.Fil: Bardach, Ariel Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: García Perdomo, Herney Andrés. Universidad del Valle; ColombiaFil: Alcaraz, Andrea. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Tapia López, Elena. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Ruano Gandara, Ruth Amanda. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Ruvinsky, Silvina. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Hospital de Pediatría "Juan P. Garrahan"; ArgentinaFil: Ciapponi, Agustín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentin