Steuerausfälle - Defizite: Sind Steuererhöhungen unumgänglich?

Verminderte Steuereinnahmen und die defizitäre Lage der öffentlichen Haushalte haben eine Diskussion über Steuererhöhungen ausgelöst. Dass die vorgesehenen Maßnahmen ökonomisch sinnvoll und in der aktuellen Wirtschaftslage angemessen sind, bezweifelt Prof. Dr. Clemens Fuest, Universität zu Köln. Für ihn wäre es sinnvoller, einen langfristigen finanzpolitischen Kurswechsel in Richtung geringerer Staatsausgaben und sinkender Steuern einzuschlagen. Für Hans-Jürgen Müller-Seils, BDI, belasten die vorgeschlagenen Maßnahmen »in unvertretbarer Weise« betriebswirtschaftlich notwendige Unternehmensstrukturen. Auch Prof. Dr. Gerold Krause-Junk, Universität Hamburg, hält Steuererhöhungen in der jetzigen Phase für den falschen Weg: Zwar kann seiner Meinung nach »die Initialzündung nicht von zusätzlichen, kreditfinanzierten Staatsausgaben erwartet werden. Niemand wird die Zuversicht in einen Aufschwung mit der Auflegung staatlicher Ausgabenprogramme verbinden. Gleichwohl muss ein Anstoß kommen - aber woher? Steuersenkungen könnten es sein. Doch die Bundesregierung will die Steuern erhöhen!« Alfons Kühn, DIHT, plädiert in seinem Beitrag für konsequentes Sparen und Subventionsabbau, denn »so finden wir einen Ausweg aus den immer wiederkehrenden, wachstumsbremsenden Steuererhöhungsdiskussionen ... Konsolidierung darf nicht - wie in der Koalitionsvereinbarung vorgesehen - über die Einnahmeseite erfolgen; sie muss über die Ausgabenseite erreicht werden.«Steueraufkommen, Steuerpolitik, Öffentlicher Haushalt, Öffentliche Ausgaben, Finanzpolitik, Deutschland

Modeling the Main Fungal Diseases of Winter Wheat: Constraints and Possible Solutions

The first step in the formulation of disease management strategy for any cropping system is to identify the most important risk factors. This is facilitated by basic epidemiological studies of pathogen life cycles, and an understanding of the way in which weather and cropping factors affect the quantity of initial inoculum and the rate at which the epidemic develops. Weather conditions are important factors in the development of fungal diseases in winter wheat, and constitute the main inputs of the decision support systems used to forecast disease and thus determine the timing for efficacious fungicide application. Crop protection often relies on preventive fungicide applications. Considering the slim cost−revenue ratio for winter wheat and the negative environmental impacts of fungicide overuse, necessity for applying only sprays that are critical for disease control becomes paramount for a sustainable and environmentally friendly crop production. Thus, fungicides should only be applied at critical stages for disease development, and only after the pathogen has been correctly identified. This chapter provides an overview of different weather-based disease models developed for assessing the real-time risk of epidemic development of the major fungal diseases (Septoria leaf blotch, leaf rusts and Fusarium head blight) of winter wheat in Luxembourg

Assessing the Interplay between Weather and Septoria Leaf Blotch Severity on Lower Leaves on the Disease Risk on Upper Leaves in Winter Wheat

peer reviewedSeptoria leaf blotch (SLB) is among the most damaging foliar diseases of wheat worldwide. In this study, data for seven cropping seasons (2003–2009) at four representative wheat-growing sites in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg (GDL) were used to assess SLB risk on the three upper leaves (L3 to L1, L1 being the flag leaf) based on the combination of conducive weather conditions, simulated potential daily infection events by Zymoseptoria tritici, and SLB severity on lower leaves between stem elongation and mid-flowering. Results indicated that the variability in SLB severity on L3 to L1 at soft dough was significantly (p < 0.05) influenced by the disease severity on the lower leaf L5 at L3 emergence and the sum of daily mean air temperature between stem elongation and mid-flowering. Moreover, analyzing the predictive power of these variables through multiple linear regression indicated that the disease severity on L5 at L3 emergence and mild weather conditions between stem elongation and mid-flowering critically influenced the progress of SLB later in the season. Such results can help fine tune weather-based SLB risk models to guide optimal timing of fungicide application in winter wheat fields and ensure economic and ecological benefits

A Review of the Potential Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options for European Viticulture

Viticulture and winemaking are important socioeconomic sectors in many European regions. Climate plays a vital role in the terroir of a given wine region, as it strongly controls canopy microclimate, vine growth, vine physiology, yield, and berry composition, which together determine wine attributes and typicity. New challenges are, however, predicted to arise from climate change, as grapevine cultivation is deeply dependent on weather and climate conditions. Changes in viticultural suitability over the last decades, for viticulture in general or the use of specific varieties, have already been reported for many wine regions. Despite spatially heterogeneous impacts, climate change is anticipated to exacerbate these recent trends on suitability for wine production. These shifts may reshape the geographical distribution of wine regions, while wine typicity may also be threatened in most cases. Changing climates will thereby urge for the implementation of timely, suitable, and cost-effective adaptation strategies, which should also be thoroughly planned and tuned to local conditions for an effective risk reduction. Although the potential of the different adaptation options is not yet fully investigated, deserving further research activities, their adoption will be of utmost relevance to maintain the socioeconomic and environmental sustainability of the highly valued viticulture and winemaking sector in Europe.This study was funded by Clim4Vitis project—“Climate change impact mitigation for European viticulture: knowledge transfer for an integrated approach”, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, under grant agreement no. 810176; it was also supported by FCT—Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033/2020

A review of the potential climate change impacts and adaptation options for European viticulture

Viticulture and winemaking are important socioeconomic sectors in many European regions. Climate plays a vital role in the terroir of a given wine region, as it strongly controls canopy microclimate, vine growth, vine physiology, yield, and berry composition, which together determine wine attributes and typicity. New challenges are, however, predicted to arise from climate change, as grapevine cultivation is deeply dependent on weather and climate conditions. Changes in viticultural suitability over the last decades, for viticulture in general or the use of specific varieties, have already been reported for many wine regions. Despite spatially heterogeneous impacts, climate change is anticipated to exacerbate these recent trends on suitability for wine production. These shifts may reshape the geographical distribution of wine regions, while wine typicity may also be threatened in most cases. Changing climates will thereby urge for the implementation of timely, suitable, and cost-effective adaptation strategies, which should also be thoroughly planned and tuned to local conditions for an effective risk reduction. Although the potential of the different adaptation options is not yet fully investigated, deserving further research activities, their adoption will be of utmost relevance to maintain the socioeconomic and environmental sustainability of the highly valued viticulture and winemaking sector in Europe. © 2020 by the authors

Phenological model intercomparison for estimating grapevine budbreak date (Vitis vinifera L.) in Europe

Budbreak date in grapevine is strictly dependent on temperature, and the correct simulation of its occurrence is of great interest since it may have major consequences on the final yield and quality. In this study, we evaluated the reliability for budbreak simulation of two modeling approaches, the chilling-forcing (CF), which describes the entire dormancy period (endo-and eco-dormancy) and the forcing approach (F), which only describes the eco-dormancy. For this, we selected six phenological models that apply CF and F in dierent ways, which were tested on budbreak simulation of eight grapevine varieties cultivated at dierent latitudes in Europe. Although none of the compared models showed a clear supremacy over the others, models based on CF showed a generally higher estimation accuracy than F where fixed starting dates were adopted. In the latter models, the accurate simulation of budbreak was dependent on the selection of the starting date for forcing accumulation that changes according to the latitude, whereas CF models were independent. Indeed, distinct thermal requirements were found for the grapevine varieties cultivated in Northern and Southern Europe. This implies the need to improve modeling of the dormancy period to avoid under-or over-estimations of budbreak date under dierent environmental conditions. © 2020 by the authors

Phenological Model Intercomparison for Estimating Grapevine Budbreak Date (Vitis vinifera L.) in Europe

Budbreak date in grapevine is strictly dependent on temperature, and the correct simulation of its occurrence is of great interest since it may have major consequences on the final yield and quality. In this study, we evaluated the reliability for budbreak simulation of two modeling approaches, the chilling-forcing (CF), which describes the entire dormancy period (endo- and eco-dormancy) and the forcing approach (F), which only describes the eco-dormancy. For this, we selected six phenological models that apply CF and F in different ways, which were tested on budbreak simulation of eight grapevine varieties cultivated at different latitudes in Europe. Although none of the compared models showed a clear supremacy over the others, models based on CF showed a generally higher estimation accuracy than F where fixed starting dates were adopted. In the latter models, the accurate simulation of budbreak was dependent on the selection of the starting date for forcing accumulation that changes according to the latitude, whereas CF models were independent. Indeed, distinct thermal requirements were found for the grapevine varieties cultivated in Northern and Southern Europe. This implies the need to improve modeling of the dormancy period to avoid under- or over-estimations of budbreak date under different environmental conditions.This research was funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, under the Clim4Vitis project: “Climate change impact mitigation for European viticulture: knowledge transfer for an integrated approach”, grant agreement no. 810176. It was also supported by FCT-Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033/2020 and the French National Research Agency (ANR) in the frame of the Investments for the Future Program, within the cluster of excellence COTE (ANR-10-LABX-45)

PESFOR-W: Improving the design and environmental effectiveness of woodlands for water Payments for Ecosystem Services

ABSTRACT: The EU Water Framework Directive aims to ensure restoration of Europe?s water bodies to ?good ecological status? by 2027. Many Member States will struggle to meet this target, with around half of EU river catchments currently reporting below standard water quality. Diffuse pollution from agriculture represents a major pressure, affecting over 90% of river basins. Accumulating evidence shows that recent improvements to agricultural practices are benefiting water quality but in many cases will be insufficient to achieve WFD objectives. There is growing support for land use change to help bridge the gap, with a particular focus on targeted tree planting to intercept and reduce the delivery of diffuse pollutants to water. This form of integrated catchment management offers multiple benefits to society but a significant cost to landowners and managers. New economic instruments, in combination with spatial targeting, need to be developed to ensure cost effective solutions - including tree planting for water benefits - are realised. Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) are flexible, incentive-based mechanisms that could play an important role in promoting land use change to deliver water quality targets. The PESFOR-W COST Action will consolidate learning from existing woodlands for water PES schemes in Europe and help standardize approaches to evaluating the environmental effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of woodland measures. It will also create a European network through which PES schemes can be facilitated, extended and improved, for example by incorporating other ecosystem services linking with aims of the wider forestscarbon policy nexus

Effects of regional climate change on brown rust disease in winter wheat

Projected climate changes will affect wheat crop production both in the main processes of plant growth and development but also in the occurrences and severities of plant diseases. We assessed the potential infection periods of wheat leaf rust (WLR) at two climatologically differentsites in Luxembourg. A threshold-based model, taking hourlyvalues of air temperatures, relative humidity and precipitation during night-time into account, was used for calculating favourable WLR infection days during three periods throughout the cropping season. Field experiments were conducted during the 2003–2013 period at the selected sites. Projected climate data, from a multi model ensemble of regional climate models (spatial resolution 25 km) as well as an additional projection with a higher spatial resolution of 1.3 km, were used for investigating the potential WLR infection periods for two future time spans. Results showed that the infections of WLR were satisfactorily simulated during the development of wheat at both sites for the 2003–2013 period. The probabilities of WLR detection were close to 1 and the critical success index ranged from 0.80 to 0.94 (perfect score = 1 for both). Moreover, the highest proportions of favourable days of WLR infection were simulated during spring and summer at both sites. Regional climate projections showed an increase in temperatures by 1.6 K for 2041–2050 and by 3.7 K for 2091–2100 compared to the reference period1991–2000. Positivetrends infavourableWLR infection conditions occur at both sites more conducive than in the reference period due to projected climatic conditions

Estimation of Air Quality at Trier, Germany - a Case Study with STREET 5

In the course of the European Council Directive on permissible air pollutant limit values, valid starting from 2005 there is an urgent call for action, particularly for fine dust (PM10). Current investigations (Junk &amp; Helbig 2003, Reuter &amp; building Mueller 2003) show that the limit values in certain places in congested areas are exceeded. Only if it is possible to located these Hot Spots purposeful measures to reduce the ambient air pollution can be conducted. For an efficient identification of these Hot Spots complex computer models or establishing special measurements networks are to expensive. Using the statistical model STREET 5,0 (KTT 2003) a cost-effective screening of the air pollution situation caused by the traffic can be done. STREET is based on the 3-dimensional micro-scale non-hydrostatic flow- and dispersion model MISCAM (Eichhorn 1989). The results of over 100.000 different calculations with MISCAM are stored in a Database und these result are used to calculate the emissions with STREET. In collaboration with the city council more than 100 streets were investigated, mapped, and calculated. A special urban climate measuring network supplies the necessary meteorological input data about the wind filed and precipitation events in the valley of the Moselle. Information about road width and road orientation as well as building density were derived from aerial photographs. Traffic censuses and mobile air pollutants measurements with our instrument van supplied the remaining input data. We calculated the mean annual air pollutant concentrations for NO 2 , NO, CO, SO 2 , O 3 , benzene as well as PM10. A comparison of the model results with the values obtained from the stations of the central emission measuring network of Rhineland-Palatinate (ZIMEN annual report..