Choice of optimum feedstock portfolio for a cellulosic ethanol plant – A dynamic linear programming solution

When the lignocellulosic biofuels industry reaches maturity and many types of biomass sources become economically viable, management of multiple feedstock supplies – that vary in their yields, density (tons per unit area), harvest window, storage and seasonal costs, storage losses, transport distance to the production plant – will become increasingly important for the success of individual enterprises. The manager’s feedstock procurement problem is modeled as a multi-period sequence problem to account for dynamic management over time. The case is illustrated with a hypothetical 53 million annual US gallon cellulosic ethanol plant located in south west Kansas that requires approximately 700,000 metric dry tons of biomass. The problem is framed over 40 quarters (10 years), where the production manager minimizes cumulative costs by choosing the land acreage that has to be contracted with for corn stover collection, or dedicated energy production and the amount of biomass stored for off-season. The sensitivity of feedstock costs to changes in yield patterns, harvesting and transport costs, seasonal costs and the extent of area available for feedstock procurement are studied. The outputs of the model include expected feedstock cost and optimal mix of feedstocks used by the cellulosic ethanol plant every year. The problem is coded and solved using GAMS software. The analysis demonstrates how the feedstock choice affects the resulting raw material cost for cellulosic ethanol production, and how the optimal combination varies with two types of feedstocks (annual and perennial).Cellulosic ethanol, feedstock, switchgrass, miscanthus, corn stover, optimization, biofuels, biomass, energy, renewable, Agribusiness,

A Need for Caution in Applying the Volume-Based Special Safeguard Mechanism

The proximate cause of the collapse of the Doha Agenda negotiations in 2008 was disagreement over the volume-based Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM). This measure would provide a right, but not an obligation, for developing countries to impose a duty when imports increase. While many simulations of its impact on domestic prices are available, there appear to be no analyses of its potential impacts on the welfare of poor households. Whether such a safeguard will increase or reduce poverty can only be determined empirically—if there are enough small, poor farmers who are net sellers of the commodity when the duty is imposed, then imposition of a safeguard duty may reduce poverty. If, by contrast, most small, poor farmers are net buyers of the products subject to the duty, then it is likely that poverty will rise. Empirical analysis for twenty-eight countries finds that poverty is generally increased following the imposition of a safeguard-type measure. The adverse poverty impact of the safeguard-induced increase in prices is typically larger when the safeguard can be triggered, because the adverse output shocks typically giving rise to import surges when import prices have not declined reduce the benefit to poor producing households from higher prices.International Relations/Trade,

Promoting global agricultural growth and poverty reduction

Constraints on resources, growth in demand, and a slowdown in agricultural productivity raise concerns that food prices may rise substantially over the next decades. The impacts of such higher prices on the poor and the required mitigating policy responses to this problem remain unclear. This paper uses a global general equilibrium model, projections of global growth and microeconomic household models, to project potential implications for incomes, food production and poverty. We find that higher agricultural productivity would generally lower poverty, with different impacts depending where the productivity growth occurs, while protection policies that reduce imports would generally raise poverty.poverty, growth, projections, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use,

Estimating the short-run poverty impacts of the 2010-11 surge in food prices

Global food prices have increased substantially since mid-2010, as have prices in many developing countries. In this study we assess the poverty impact of the price changes between June and December 2010 in twenty-eight low and middle income countries. This is done by gathering detailed information on individual households'food production and consumption levels for thirty-eight agricultural and food commodities to assess the impacts on household welfare. This study estimates that this sudden food price surge increased the number of poor people globally, but with considerably different impacts in different countries. The heterogeneity of these impacts is partly related to the wide variation in the transmission of global prices to local prices and partly to differences in households'patterns of production and consumption. On balance, the adverse welfare impact on net buyers outweighs the benefits to net sellers resulting in an increase in the number of poor and in the depth of poverty. We estimate that the average poverty change was 1.1 percentage points in low income countries and 0.7 percentage points in middle income countries with a net increase of 44 million people falling below the $1.25 per day extreme poverty line.Food&Beverage Industry,Rural Poverty Reduction,Markets and Market Access,Regional Economic Development

Implications of the growth of China and India for the other Asian giant : Russia

Continuing rapid growth of China and India can be expected to raise incomes in Russia, but also to put adjustment pressure on Russian firms. The impacts of the rapid growth of China and India on the Russian economy are explored by examining a baseline projection using a global general equilibrium model, and then assessing the implications of higher-than-expected growth in China and India. The authors find that a major source of benefits to Russia is likely to be terms-of-trade improvements associated with higher energy prices - a quite different channel of effect from that for many developing countries that benefit primarily through expanded opportunities to trade directly with these emerging giants. Taking into account the likely improvements in the quality and variety of exports from China and India, the gains to Russia increase substantially. The expansion of the energy sector and the contraction of manufacturing and services are a sign of a Dutch disease effect that will increase the importance of policies to encourage adaptation to the changing world environment.Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Markets and Market Access,Trade Policy,Free Trade

How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?

Computable General Equilibrium models, widely used for the analysis of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are often criticized for having poor econometric foundations. This paper improves the linkage between econometric estimates of key parameters and their usage in CGE analysis in order to better evaluate the likely outcome of a FTA for the Americas. Our econometric work focuses on estimation of the elasticity of substitution among imports from different countries, which is especially critical for evaluating the positive and normative outcomes of FTAs. We match the data in the econometric exercise to the policy experiment at hand. Then we sample from the distribution of parameter values given by our econometric estimates in order to generate a distribution of model results, from which we can construct confidence intervals. We conclude that there is great potential for combining econometric work with CGE-based policy analysis in order to produce a richer set of results that are likely to prove more satisfying to the sophisticated policy maker.

Relating adults' lives and learning: participation and engagement in different settings

This report shows how an understanding of language, literacy andnumeracy as social practices can help practitioners to take account oflearners' lives. It demonstrates how people's histories, currentcircumstances and imagined futures can shape their learning andaffect their level of engagement. The study is based on the research ofthe Adult Learners' Lives project in community settings in Blackburn,Lancaster and Liverpool