Hindsight Bias in Insight and Mathematical Problem Solving: Evidence of Different Reconstruction Mechanisms for Metacognitive Versus Situational Judgments

This article presents two experiments that used insight and mathematical problems to investigate whether different factors would affect hindsight bias on metacognitive and situational judgments. In both studies, participants initially rated their likelihood of solving each problem within a certain amount of time (metacognitive judgments) and rated the importance of each component of the problem for finding the solution (situational judgments). Next, participants attempted to solve each problem. In Experiment 1, all participants were given solution feedback information, but in Experiment 2, participants were not given any solution feedback. After 1 week, participants were asked to recall their original judgments. Hindsight bias was assessed by comparing the initial with the final ratings. Insight problems and math problems showed different patterns of hindsight bias effects on the metacognitive and situational judgments. The results suggest that two competing models of hindsight effects are actually complementary explanations for judgment reconstruction on different types of judgment tasks

The Role of Expectation and Memory in the Hindsight Bias Effect: A Test of Cognitive Reconstruction Models

(First Paragraph) The Hindsight Bias Effect (HBE) describes the observation that once people are aware of an outcome to a situation, they have a tendency to falsely believe that they would have predicted the true outcome (see Guibault et al., 2004) Historically, the most popular explanations for this effect can be described as Cognitive Reconstruction Models of retrospective judgment formation (Hawkins & Hastie, 1990). These theories propose the hindsight bias occurs when people do not or cannot directly recall their initial judgment at the point of retrospection. Therefore, people attempt to reconstruct their original predictive judgment by re-judging the situation anew. All of these theories propose that the knowledge of the outcome somehow affects the information or cues used in this reconstruction process, thereby leading to retrospective judgments that are more in favor of the given outcome. However, these Cognitive Reconstruction theories all propose different mechanisms for reconstruction which lead to diverging predictions about what variables should moderate the HBE

The Role of Politics and Proximity in Sea Level Rise Policy Salience: A Study of Virginia Legislators’ Perceptions

The acceleration of sea level rise (SLR) has become a threat to the stability of nation-states worldwide and associated with risks to environmental sustainability, economic infrastructure, and public health. However, from both an international and U.S. perspective, there is a lack of research examining legislative decision makers’ perceptions about policies regarding SLR. This study addresses that gap by examining how politics and proximity affects Virginia state legislators’ perceptions of the saliency of SLR. A survey of these legislators reveals their perceptions of credible sources of information, SLR-related risk, and who should take the lead to address SLR. While this study confirms other research about the effects of political party, it finds that proximity to coastal areas also greatly influences the perceived saliency of SLR. The findings from this research project enhance our understanding of the challenges inherent in addressing SLR at the state level. Finally, this study points to implications for agenda setting and suggests areas of further study regarding SLR policy at the state and local government levels

The Sea Is Rising… But Not Onto the Policy Agenda: A Multiple Streams Approach to Understanding Sea Level Rise Policies

There has been little policy effort to address sea level rise in coastal states in the US. It is important to examine, at the state level, how the multitude of different (and changing) actors with different preferences and perspectives contribute to such inertia. This study examines state-level legislative inaction with regards to sea level rise. Using Kingdon\u27s multiple streams framework, we draw a picture of the policy landscape in Virginia as one where the problem of sea level rise is perceived as a low priority, with little consensus on achievable policy solutions, and is politically controversial. We find that policy inertia in Virginia is a result of (1) fractious viewpoints regarding sea level rise as a problem, (2) a lack of clear consensus on policy solutions, and (3) conflicting perspectives of the role of the state

In Virginia, disagreement about the threat of sea-level rise and climate change politics prevent action on a pressing problem.

Nearly half of the US population lives in coastal counties, meaning that climate change related sea-level rise should be a pressing concern for governments and policymakers – and yet for some it is not. Using the Virginia legislature as a case study, Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, Katharine A. Neill, Burton St. John III, Ivan K. Ash and Kaitrin Mahar find that the issue of sea-level rise is politically controversial and is perceived by legislators to be a low priority policy concern, especially among those who do not represent coastal districts.. There is also significant disagreement over appropriate policy remedies to address local sea-level rise

The Community Ecology of Herbivore Regulation in an Agroecosystem: Lessons from Complex Systems

AbstractWhether an ecological community is controlled from above or below remains a popular framework that continues generating interesting research questions and takes on especially important meaning in agroecosystems. We describe the regulation from above of three coffee herbivores, a leaf herbivore (the green coffee scale, Coccus viridis), a seed predator (the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei), and a plant pathogen (the coffee rust disease, caused by Hemelia vastatrix) by various natural enemies, emphasizing the remarkable complexity involved. We emphasize the intersection of this classical question of ecology with the burgeoning field of complex systems, including references to chaos, critical transitions, hysteresis, basin or boundary collision, and spatial self-organization, all aimed at the applied question of pest control in the coffee agroecosystem

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Factors Associated with Revision Surgery after Internal Fixation of Hip Fractures

Background: Femoral neck fractures are associated with high rates of revision surgery after management with internal fixation. Using data from the Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trial evaluating methods of internal fixation in patients with femoral neck fractures, we investigated associations between baseline and surgical factors and the need for revision surgery to promote healing, relieve pain, treat infection or improve function over 24 months postsurgery. Additionally, we investigated factors associated with (1) hardware removal and (2) implant exchange from cancellous screws (CS) or sliding hip screw (SHS) to total hip arthroplasty, hemiarthroplasty, or another internal fixation device. Methods: We identified 15 potential factors a priori that may be associated with revision surgery, 7 with hardware removal, and 14 with implant exchange. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses in our investigation. Results: Factors associated with increased risk of revision surgery included: female sex, [hazard ratio (HR) 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-2.50; P = 0.001], higher body mass index (fo

26th Annual Computational Neuroscience Meeting (CNS*2017): Part 3 - Meeting Abstracts - Antwerp, Belgium. 15–20 July 2017

This work was produced as part of the activities of FAPESP Research,\ud Disseminations and Innovation Center for Neuromathematics (grant\ud 2013/07699-0, S. Paulo Research Foundation). NLK is supported by a\ud FAPESP postdoctoral fellowship (grant 2016/03855-5). ACR is partially\ud supported by a CNPq fellowship (grant 306251/2014-0)