Nearly half of the US population lives in coastal counties, meaning that climate change related sea-level rise should be a pressing concern for governments and policymakers – and yet for some it is not. Using the Virginia legislature as a case study, Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, Katharine A. Neill, Burton St. John III, Ivan K. Ash and Kaitrin Mahar find that the issue of sea-level rise is politically controversial and is perceived by legislators to be a low priority policy concern, especially among those who do not represent coastal districts.. There is also significant disagreement over appropriate policy remedies to address local sea-level rise

Ash, Ivan K.

Mahar, Kaitrin

Neill, Katharine A.

St. John III, Burton

Yusuf, Juita-Elena (Wie)

LSE Research Online

blogs.lse.ac.ukhttp://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2015/12/29/in-virginia-disagreement-about-the-threat-of-sea-level-rise-and-climate-change-politics-prevent-action-on-a-pressing-problem/In Virginia, disagreement about the threat of sea-level rise andclimate change politics prevent action on a pressing problem.Nearly half of the US population lives in coastal counties, meaning that climate change related sea-level rise shouldbe a pressing concern for governments and policymakers – and yet for some it is not. Using the Virginia legislatureas a case study, Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, Katharine A. Neill , Burton St. John III, Ivan K. Ash and Kaitrin Maharfind that the issue of sea-level rise is politically controversial and is perceived by legislators to be a low priority policyconcern, especially among those who do not represent coastal districts.. There is also significant disagreement overappropriate policy remedies to address local sea-level rise.Sea-level rise (SLR) is a serious problem that directly impacts coastal communities and can have national and globalconsequences. Across many coastal areas worldwide and in the US, flooding due to SLR presents risks to personaland public property, economic activity, public infrastructure, and military operations. Additionally, with a globalizedeconomy, indirect economic effects are likely to be significant even far from the coastline.In many areas of the world threatened by SLR, governments are taking steps to mitigate the problem. However, in theUnited States, efforts are more limited, despite the fact that roughly 48 percent of the US population resides in coastalcounties. In the coastal state of Virginia, the Hampton Roads region is experiencing the second fastest sea-level risein the country, second only to New Orleans. Yet, little action has been taken by the Virginia state legislature toaddress SLR. This indicates a divergence between problem severity and legislative concern and raises the questionof why state policymakers do not see SLR as an issue requiring legislative action.To answer this question, in the summer of 2012 we conducted a web and mail survey that was sent to 140 Virginialegislators. A total of 36 legislators completed the survey (10 each from non-coastal Republicans and Democrats and8 each from coastal Republicans and Democrats). We asked respondents several questions regarding theirperceptions of the threat posed by SLR to the state, the need for state-level action, and the barriers to that action. Wefound that the issue of SLR in Virginia is characterized by high conflict and political controversy, and is perceived as alow priority policy concern. These characteristics have contributed to SLR policy inertia.We found that 71.5 percent of legislators generally agreed that the increased risk of flooding due to SLR is likely toadversely affect the state’s economic well-being, but only 29 percent strongly agreed that this is the case. Thissuggests that while there is general concern for SLR, it is not viewed as a pressing issue. Similarly, when askedabout the likelihood of specific risks or consequences of flooding due to SLR, such as loss of private and publicproperty and disruption to economic activities, most were rated, on average, in the middle ground between likely andnot likely. This suggests that legislators generally do not consider most sea-level rise (SLR) risks as very likely tooccur over the next several decades.The localized nature of SLR impacts is highlighted by the tendency of coastal district legislators to identify SLR as amore serious threat to their district compared to legislators from non-coastal areas. But while many of SLR’s mostvisible impacts are localized, it is also viewed as a global problem. This presents a challenge in determining who isresponsible for leading action on SLR. In Virginia we found that one factor keeping SLR a low-priority problem is thegeneral perception among state legislators that the federal government should take the lead in developing mitigationpolicies.Adding to these obstacles to action is the politicized nature of the science of climate change. Republicans andconservatives in the US are generally skeptical of climate change and tend to be against most climate changepolicies. Political partisanship over SLR and climate change more broadly has inhibited action on SLR in Virginia. AsFigure 1 shows, lack of political consensus on both the importance of SLR and the need to take action regarding SLRwere the top obstacles cited by Virginia legislators who responded to the survey (77 percent and 85 percent,respectively).Figure 1 – Perceived challenges to adopting policies to address sea-level riseAnother critical challenge is a lack of agreement among legislators as to the appropriate policy remedy, particularly interms of potential effectiveness. The Virginia Governor’s Climate Change Taskforce identified several policy solutionsfor addressing SLR, but when state legislators were asked about these policy solutions, there was no strongconsensus about which options would be most effective. Most potential solutions—such as developing a stateadaptation strategy and providing funds to municipal governments to address SLR adaptation needs—were viewedas very effective by less than 25 percent of surveyed legislators. Adding to this lack of consensus are the perceivedconstraints to action. When asked to identify factors that make it difficult to adopt policies to address SLR, Virginialegislators noted the lack of funding as a key constraint (77 percent), in addition to lack of scientific information aboutSLR (44 percent) and lack of knowledge about policy solutions (44 percent) (See Figure 1.).Our findings suggest at least a two-fold challenge: 1) difficulties with SLR being identified as a problem and 2) lack ofconsensus that some policy solutions have the potential to be effective at addressing SLR. The above analysis pointsto how SLR policy inertia is a result of fractious and politically-charged viewpoints on the matter, mixed with perceivedgaps in solutions and conflicting perspectives on the role of the state concerning SLR. Figure 2 summarizes thechallenges to legislative action on SLR.Figure 2 -Barriers to Legislative Action on Sea-Level RiseThese points of friction may come in to fuller view as extreme events (e.g. major floods or large storms) raiseawareness of the very real threats from SLR. Federal pressure and incentives, such as mandates or funds to addressSLR issues, may be ways to gain state attention and elevate possible policy solutions. Federal leadership, throughthe crafting of a national framework for addressing SLR, may also be important for raising SLR onto the state policyagenda.SLR remains a controversial topic in the US because of its connection to climate change. However, given the nation’scurrent political climate, removing the ideological debate from the practical issue of how to address climate change isa daunting task. What can likely precipitate a tipping point is continual focus on the risks and impacts of SLR andavoiding debates about its causes. This strategy may be limited in its effectiveness, however, because it allows onlyfor a narrow treatment of the issue.That our findings are, for the most part, consistent with those of other studies of sub-national climate change policiesacross a variety of geographic settings suggests that state-level SLR policy in the US may not be significantlydifferent or unique. Experiences in other countries may offer additional insights into creating tipping points that canallow governments to address SLR effectively. At a minimum, this study finds that, to be able to reach that tippingpoint, a confluence of actors, options, and events are needed to establish a saliency for SLR that rises abovepolitically-charged viewpoints.Update:  Our research was conducted in 2012 when Virginia was under a Republican Governor, Republican-controlled House of Delegates and Democrat-controlled Senate.  Currently, the state is under a Republican-controlled House and Senate, with a Democrat Governor.  Since our article was originally written, coastal Virginia hasnot faced any major natural disasters post-Hurricane Sandy (October 2012), although it has seen recent flooding andinundation due to King Tide and exacerbated nuisance flooding due to continued subsidence and accelerated sea-level rise.  The latter, however, does not appear to have been sufficient to increase SLR issue saliency.  The 2015legislative session saw three SLR-related legislative proposals rise onto the agenda: House Bill 1731 which wouldrequire the Secretary of Natural Resources to report annually on certain environmental issues including SLR; andHouse Bill 2205 and Senate Bill 1428 to require participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and establisha revolving fund to provide resources for implementing SLR adaptation efforts.  These bills were not enacted.    This article is based on the paper “The sea is rising… but not onto the policy agenda: A multiple streams approach tounderstanding sea level rise policies” in Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy. Featured image credit: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Northeast Region (Flickr, CC-BY-2.0)Please read our comments policy before commenting.            Note:  This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP – American Politics and Policy, nor theLondon School of Economics.Shortened URL for this post: http://bit.ly/1TnEkYH_________________________________                          About the authors Wie Yusuf – Old Dominion UniversityWie Yusuf is Associate Professor in the School of Public Service, Old Dominion University.  Herresearch on SLR, climate change, adaptation and resilience are part of ODU’s Climate Change andSea Level Rise Initiative and support the  Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise Preparedness andResilience Intergovernmental Planning Pilot Project. Katharine A. Neill – Rice UniversityKatharine A. Neill is the Alfred C. Glassell III postdoctoral fellow in drug policy at the Baker Institute ofPublic Policy at Rice University. Her current research focuses on marijuana reform efforts in the stateof Texas. She has published in several peer-reviewed journals in various policy areas, includingcrime, energy and environmental policy. Burton St. John III – Old Dominion UniversityBurton St. John III is Associate Professor in the Department of Communication and Theatre Arts, OldDominion University.  Ivan K. Ash – Old Dominion UniversityIvan K. Ash is Associate Professor in the Department of Psychology, Old Dominion University.  Kaitrin Mahar – Old Dominion UniversityKaitrin Mahar is doctoral candidate in the Ph.D. in public administration and urban policy program atOld Dominion University.CC BY-NC 3.0 2015 LSE USAPP

In Virginia, disagreement about the threat of sea-level rise and climate change politics prevent action on a pressing problem.

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