Seismic risk assessment for developing countries : Pakistan as a case study

Modern Earthquake Risk Assessment (ERA) methods usually require seismo-tectonic information for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) that may not be readily available in developing countries. To bypass this drawback, this paper presents a practical event-based PSHA method that uses instrumental seismicity, available historical seismicity, as well as limited information on geology and tectonic setting. Historical seismicity is integrated with instrumental seismicity to determine the long-term hazard. The tectonic setting is included by assigning seismic source zones associated with known major faults. Monte Carlo simulations are used to generate earthquake catalogues with randomized key hazard parameters. A case study region in Pakistan is selected to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. The results indicate that the proposed method produces seismic hazard maps consistent with previous studies, thus being suitable for generating such maps in regions where limited data are available. The PSHA procedure is developed as an integral part of an ERA framework named EQRAM. The framework is also used to determine seismic risk in terms of annual losses for the study region

Spatial distribution of heavy metal and risk indices of water and sediments in the Kunhar River and its tributaries

The present study investigated heavy metal (HM) concentrations in water and sediment of the Kunhar River and its tributaries in Kaghan valley, Northern Pakistan. The highest mean concentration was observed for iron (Fe) 316 ± 47.4 µg/L and the lowest for cadmium (Cd) 2.45 ± 0.31 µg/L in the upstream water of this study. The highest mean hazard quotient value of 0.43 was calculated for children through downstream water consumption. The concentration of HM in water was used for the calculation of HM pollution index and HM evaluation index , showing a low level of contamination. The highest mean sediment concentration was found for Fe was 35500 ± 2700 mg/L and the lowest for Cd was 1.96 ± 0.23 mg/L in upstream of Kunhar River. Pollution quantification factors values were the highest downstream. Statistical analyses revealed that water and sediment contamination of Kunhar River and its tributaries was mainly attributed to geogenic sources

Structural styles, hydrocarbon prospects and potential in the Salt Range Potwar Plateau, North Pakistan.

The Salt Range/Potwar Plateau (SRPP) is part of the Himalayan foreland and an important petroleum province in north Pakistan. The hydrocarbons are commonly produced from stacked Cambrian to Eocene clastic and carbonate reservoirs which have an average thickness of 1 km. These strata are overlain by at least 5 km of Miocene and younger continental molasse sedimentation in the deepest part of the foreland basin. Surface and subsurface (seismic interpretations and borehole data) geology combined with the timing and the patterns of sedimentation has allowed to interpret the deformation as thin skinned, with a detachment in weak Eocambrian evaporates and the development of ramp-and-flat structures, since about 8 Ma. We have reviewed the structural interpretations with new borehole logs, field geology, and reserve estimates in this paper to precisely define oil-field structures with a view on future exploration. As a result of this work, 12 oil fields are classified as three detachment folds, four fault-propagation folds, four pop-ups, and one triangle zone structure. The latter two are identified as better prospects with the last one as the best with estimated reserves of 51 million barrels of oil (MMBO). Hence, the triangle zones along with other ramp-and-flat structures from the North Potwar Deformed Zone (NPDZ) are recognized to provide potential future prospects. Finally, a 40-km-long structural cross section from NPDZ is used to discuss complex deformation of the triangle zone and duplex structures as future potential prospects. About 55 km of shortening across the NPDZ during Plio-Pleistocene time is calculated, which has important bearing on the geometry of prospects, reserve calculations, and the future exploration

Potentially toxic elements in soil of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and Tribal areas, Pakistan: evaluation for human and ecological risk assessment

Potentially toxic elements (PTEs) contaminations in the soil ecosystem are considered as extremely hazardous due to toxicity, persistence and bioaccumulative nature. Therefore, this study was aimed to summarize the results of published PTEs in soil of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Tribal areas, Pakistan. Results were evaluated for the pollution quantification factors, including contamination factor (CF), pollution load index (PLI), ecological risk index (ERI) and human health risk assessment. The highest CF (797) and PLI (7.35) values were observed for Fe and ERI (857) values for Cd. Soil PTEs concentrations were used to calculate the human exposure for the risk assessment, including chronic or non-carcinogenic risks such as the hazard quotient (HQ) and carcinogenic or cancer risk (CR). The values of HQ were > 1 for the Cd, Co and Cr in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Tribal areas. Tribal areas showed higher values of ERI, HQ, and CR as compared to the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that were attributed to the mining activities, weathering and erosion of mafic and ultramafic bedrocks hosting ophiolites. This study strongly recommends that best control measures need to be taken for soil PTEs with the intent to alleviate any continuing potential threat to the human health, property and environment, which otherwise could enter ecosystem and ultimately the living beings. Further studies are recommended to combat the soil PTEs concentrations and toxicity in the Tribal areas for a best picture of understanding the element effects on human, and environment can be achieved that will lead to a sustainable ecological harmony