Current misconception 3: that subgroup-specific trial mortality results often provide a good basis for individualising patient care

Misconceptions and ill-founded theories can arise in all areas of science. However, the apparent accessibility of many epidemiology findings and popular interest in the subject can lead to additional misunderstandings. The article below is the third in an occasional series of short editorials highlighting some current misinterpretations of epidemiological findings. Invited authors will be given wide scope in judging the prevalence of the misconception under discussion. We hope that this series will prove instructive to cancer researchers in other disciplines as well as to students of epidemiology. Adrian L Harris and Leo Kinle

Interrogating the Genetic Determinants of Tourette’s Syndrome and Other Tic Disorders Through Genome-Wide Association Studies

Objective: Tourette’s syndrome is polygenic and highly heritable. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) approaches are useful for interrogating the genetic architecture and determinants of Tourette’s syndrome and other tic disorders. The authors conducted a GWAS meta-analysis and probed aggregated Tourette’s syndrome polygenic risk to test whether Tourette’s and related tic disorders have an underlying shared genetic etiology and whether Tourette’s polygenic risk scores correlate with worst-ever tic severity and may represent a potential predictor of disease severity. Methods: GWAS meta-analysis, gene-based association, and genetic enrichment analyses were conducted in 4,819 Tourette’s syndrome case subjects and 9,488 control subjects. Replication of top loci was conducted in an independent population-based sample (706 case subjects, 6,068 control subjects). Relationships between Tourette’s polygenic risk scores (PRSs), other tic disorders, ascertainment, and tic severity were examined. Results: GWAS and gene-based analyses identified one genome-wide significant locus within FLT3 on chromosome 13, rs2504235, although this association was not replicated in the population-based sample. Genetic variants spanning evolutionarily conserved regions significantly explained 92.4% of Tourette’s syndrome heritability. Tourette’s-associated genes were significantly preferentially expressed in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Tourette’s PRS significantly predicted both Tourette’s syndrome and tic spectrum disorders status in the population-based sample. Tourette’s PRS also significantly correlated with worst-ever tic severity and was higher in case subjects with a family history of tics than in simplex case subjects. Conclusions: Modulation of gene expression through noncoding variants, particularly within cortico-striatal circuits, is implicated as a fundamental mechanism in Tourette’s syndrome pathogenesis. At a genetic level, tic disorders represent a continuous spectrum of disease, supporting the unification of Tourette’s syndrome and other tic disorders in future diagnostic schemata. Tourette’s PRSs derived from sufficiently large samples may be useful in the future for predicting conversion of transient tics to chronic tic disorders, as well as tic persistence and lifetime tic severity

Epidemiology of Micro- and Macrovascular Complications of Type 2 Diabetes in Korea

The prevalence of diabetes in Korea has increased six- to sevenfold over the past 40 years with its complications becoming major causes of morbidity and mortality. The rate of death among patients with diabetes is about twice as high as that among persons without diabetes and the most common cause of death is cardiovascular disease (30.6%). Despite the seriousness of diabetic complications, 30 to 70% of patients receive inadequate care, and only 40% of treated diabetic patients achieve the optimal control with HbA1c level <7% in Korea. In 2006, over 30 to 40% of patients with diabetes have microvascular complications and around 10% of them have macrovascular complications from our national data. Despite there are some debates about intensive glycemic control resulting in the deterioration of macrovascular complication, multifactorial treatment approaches including proper glycemic control are important to prevent diabetic complications. There have been needs for finding proper biomarkers for predicting diabetic complications properly but we still need more longitudinal studies to find this correlation with causal relationship. In this article, we wanted to review the recent status of micro- and macrovascular complications of type 2 diabetes in Korea from integration of many epidemiologic studies

Lymphotoxin-α Gene and Risk of Myocardial Infarction in 6,928 Cases and 2,712 Controls in the ISIS Case-Control Study

Lymphotoxin-α (LTA) is a pro-inflammatory cytokine that plays an important role in the immune system and local inflammatory response. LTA is expressed in atherosclerotic plaques and has been implicated in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease (CHD). Polymorphisms in the gene encoding lymphotoxin-α (LTA) on Chromosome 6p21 have been associated with susceptibility to CHD, but results in different studies appear to be conflicting. We examined the association of seven single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across the LTA gene, and their related haplotypes, with risk of myocardial infarction (MI) in the International Study of Infarct Survival (ISIS) case-control study involving 6,928 non-fatal MI cases and 2,712 unrelated controls. The seven SNPs (including the rs909253 and rs1041981 SNPs previously implicated in the risk of CHD) were in strong linkage disequilibrium with each other and contributed to six common haplotypes. Some of the haplotypes for LTA were associated with higher plasma concentrations of C-reactive protein (p = 0.004) and lower concentrations of albumin (p = 0.023). However, none of the SNPs or related haplotypes were significantly associated with risk of MI. The results of the ISIS study were considered in the context of six previously published studies that had assessed this association, and this meta-analysis found no significant association with CHD risk using a recessive model and only a modest association using a dominant model (with narrow confidence intervals around these risk estimates). Overall, these studies provide reliable evidence that these common polymorphisms for the LTA gene are not strongly associated with susceptibility to coronary disease

Challenges of one-year longitudinal follow-up of a prospective, observational cohort study using an anonymised database:Recommendations for trainee research collaboratives

Background: trainee research collaboratives (TRCs) have pioneered high quality, prospective ‘snap-shot’ surgical cohort studies in the UK. Outcomes After Kidney injury in Surgery (OAKS) was the first TRC cohort study to attempt to collect one-year follow-up data. The aims of this study were to evaluate one-year follow-up and data completion rates, and to identify factors associated with improved follow-up rates. Methods: in this multicentre study, patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery were prospectively identified and followed up at one-year following surgery for six clinical outcomes. The primary outcome for this report was the follow-up rate for mortality at 1 year. The secondary outcome was the data completeness rate in those patients who were followed-up. An electronic survey was disseminated to investigators to identify strategies associated with improved follow-up. Results: of the 173 centres that collected baseline data, 126 centres registered to participate in one-year follow-up. Overall 62.3% (3482/5585) of patients were followed-up at 1 year; in centres registered to collect one-year outcomes, the follow-up rate was 82.6% (3482/4213). There were no differences in sex, comorbidity, operative urgency, or 7-day postoperative AKI rate between patients who were lost to follow-up and those who were successfully followed-up. In centres registered to collect one-year follow-up outcomes, overall data completeness was 83.1%, with 57.9% (73/126) of centres having ≥95% data completeness. Factors associated with increased likelihood of achieving ≥95% data completeness were total number of patients to be followed-up (77.4% in centres with &lt; 15 patients, 59.0% with 15–29 patients, 51.4% with 30–59 patients, and 36.8% with &gt; 60 patients, p = 0.030), and central versus local storage of patient identifiers (72.5% vs 48.0%, respectively, p = 0.006). Conclusions: TRC methodology can be used to follow-up patients identified in prospective cohort studies at one-year. Follow-up rates are maximized by central storage of patient identifiers

Progress in prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV infection in Ukraine: results from a birth cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Ukraine was the epicentre of the HIV epidemic in Eastern Europe, which has the most rapidly accelerating HIV epidemic world-wide today; national HIV prevalence is currently estimated at 1.6%. Our objective was to evaluate the uptake and effectiveness of interventions for prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) over an eight year period within operational settings in Ukraine, within the context of an ongoing birth cohort study.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The European Collaborative Study (ECS) is an ongoing birth cohort study in which HIV-infected pregnant women identified before or during pregnancy or at delivery were enrolled and their infants prospectively followed. Three centres in Ukraine started enrolling in 2000, with a further three joining in September 2006.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 3356 women enrolled, 21% (689) reported current or past injecting drug use (IDU). Most women were diagnosed antenatally and of those, the proportion diagnosed in the first/second trimester increased from 47% in 2000/01 (83/178) to 73% (776/1060) in 2006/07 (p < 0.001); intrapartum diagnosis was associated with IDU (Adjusted odds ratio 4.38; 95%CI 3.19–6.02). The percentage of women not receiving any antiretroviral prophylaxis declined from 18% (36/205) in 2001 to 7% in 2007 (61/843) (p < 0.001). Use of sdNVP alone substantially declined after 2003, with a concomitant increase in zidovudine prophylaxis. Median antenatal zidovudine prophylaxis duration increased from 24 to 72 days between 2000 and 2007. Elective caesarean section (CS) rates were relatively stable over time and 34% overall. Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) rates decreased from 15.2% in 2001 (95%CI 10.2–21.4) to 7.0% in 2006 (95%CI 2.6–14.6). In adjusted analysis, MTCT risk was reduced by 43% with elective CS versus vaginal delivery and by 75% with zidovudine versus no prophylaxis.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There have been substantial improvements in use of PMTCT interventions in Ukraine, including earlier diagnosis of HIV-infected pregnant women and increasing coverage with antiretroviral prophylaxis and the initial MTCT rate has more than halved. Future research should focus on hard-to-reach populations such as IDU and on missed opportunities for further reducing the MTCT rate.</p

Huntington's disease: a clinical review

Huntington disease (HD) is a rare neurodegenerative disorder of the central nervous system characterized by unwanted choreatic movements, behavioral and psychiatric disturbances and dementia. Prevalence in the Caucasian population is estimated at 1/10,000-1/20,000. Mean age at onset of symptoms is 30-50 years. In some cases symptoms start before the age of 20 years with behavior disturbances and learning difficulties at school (Juvenile Huntington's disease; JHD). The classic sign is chorea that gradually spreads to all muscles. All psychomotor processes become severely retarded. Patients experience psychiatric symptoms and cognitive decline. HD is an autosomal dominant inherited disease caused by an elongated CAG repeat (36 repeats or more) on the short arm of chromosome 4p16.3 in the Huntingtine gene. The longer the CAG repeat, the earlier the onset of disease. In cases of JHD the repeat often exceeds 55. Diagnosis is based on clinical symptoms and signs in an individual with a parent with proven HD, and is confirmed by DNA determination. Pre-manifest diagnosis should only be performed by multidisciplinary teams in healthy at-risk adult individuals who want to know whether they carry the mutation or not. Differential diagnoses include other causes of chorea including general internal disorders or iatrogenic disorders. Phenocopies (clinically diagnosed cases of HD without the genetic mutation) are observed. Prenatal diagnosis is possible by chorionic villus sampling or amniocentesis. Preimplantation diagnosis with in vitro fertilization is offered in several countries. There is no cure. Management should be multidisciplinary and is based on treating symptoms with a view to improving quality of life. Chorea is treated with dopamine receptor blocking or depleting agents. Medication and non-medical care for depression and aggressive behavior may be required. The progression of the disease leads to a complete dependency in daily life, which results in patients requiring full-time care, and finally death. The most common cause of death is pneumonia, followed by suicide

Amlodipine versus angiotensin II receptor blocker; control of blood pressure evaluation trial in diabetics (ADVANCED-J)

BACKGROUND: The coexistence of type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypertension increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases. The U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study has shown that blood pressure control as well as blood glucose control is efficient for prevention of complications in hypertensive patients with diabetes mellitus. However, some reports have shown that it is difficult to control the blood pressure and the concomitant use of a plurality of drugs is needed in hypertensive patients with diabetes mellitus. In recent years renin-angiotensin system depressants are increasingly used for the blood pressure control in diabetic patients. Particularly in Japan, angiotensin II (A II) antagonists are increasingly used. However, there is no definite evidence of the point of which is efficient for the control, the increase in dose of A II antagonist or the concomitant use of another drug, in hypertensive patients whose blood pressure levels are inadequately controlled with A II antagonist. METHODS/DESIGN: Hypertensive patients of age 20 years or over with type 2 diabetes mellitus who have been treated by the single use of AII antagonist at usual doses for at least 8 weeks or patients who have been treated by the concomitant use of AII antagonist and an antihypertensive drug other than calcium channel blockers and ACE inhibitors at usual doses for at least 8 weeks are included. DISCUSSION: We designed a multi-center, prospective, randomized, open label, blinded-endpoint trial, ADVANCED-J, to compare the increases in dose of A II antagonist and the concomitant use of a Ca-channel blocker (amlodipine) and A II antagonist in hypertensive patients with diabetes mellitus, whose blood pressure levels were inadequately controlled with A II antagonist. This study is different from the usual previous studies in that home blood pressures are assessed as indicators of evaluation of blood pressure. The ADVANCED-J study may have much influence on selection of antihypertensive drugs for treatment in hypertensive patients with diabetes mellitus. It is expected to give an important hint for considering the validity of selection of antihypertensive drugs from the aspects not only of the antihypertensive effect but medical cost-effectiveness

Chemotherapy effectiveness in trial-underrepresented groups with early breast cancer:A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Adjuvant chemotherapy in early stage breast cancer has been shown to reduce mortality in a large meta-analysis of over 100 randomised trials. However, these trials largely excluded patients aged 70 years and over or with higher levels of comorbidity. There is therefore uncertainty about whether the effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy generalises to these groups, hindering patient and clinician decision-making. This study utilises administrative healthcare data-real world data (RWD)-and econometric methods for causal analysis to estimate treatment effectiveness in these trial-underrepresented groups. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Women with early breast cancer aged 70 years and over and those under 70 years with a high level of comorbidity were identified and their records extracted from Scottish Cancer Registry (2001-2015) data linked to other routine health records. A high level of comorbidity was defined as scoring 1 or more on the Charlson comorbidity index, being in the top decile of inpatient stays, and/or having 5 or more visits to specific outpatient clinics, all within the 5 years preceding breast cancer diagnosis. Propensity score matching (PSM) and instrumental variable (IV) analysis, previously identified as feasible and valid in this setting, were used in conjunction with Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios for death from breast cancer and death from all causes. The analysis adjusts for age, clinical prognostic factors, and socioeconomic deprivation; the IV method may also adjust for unmeasured confounding factors. Cohorts of 9,653 and 7,965 were identified for women aged 70 years and over and those with high comorbidity, respectively. In the ≥70/high comorbidity cohorts, median follow-up was 5.17/6.53 years and there were 1,935/740 deaths from breast cancer. For women aged 70 years and over, the PSM-estimated HR was 0.73 (95% CI 0.64-0.95), while for women with high comorbidity it was 0.67 (95% CI 0.51-0.86). This translates to a mean predicted benefit in terms of overall survival at 10 years of approximately3% (percentage points) and 4%, respectively. A limitation of this analysis is that use of observational data means uncertainty remains both from sampling uncertainty and from potential bias from residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study, as RWD, should be interpreted with caution and in the context of existing and emerging randomised data. The relative effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy in reducing mortality in patients with early stage breast cancer appears to be generalisable to the selected trial-underrepresented groups.</p

Mother-to-child transmission of human immunodeficiency virus in aten years period

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Objectives</p> <p>to evaluate mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) rates and related factors in HIV-infected pregnant women from a tertiary hospital between 2000 and 2009.</p> <p>Subjects and method</p> <p>cohort of 452 HIV-infected pregnant women and their newborns. Data was collected from recorded files and undiagnosed children were enrolled for investigation. Statistical analysis: qui-square test, Fisher exact test, Student <it>t </it>test, Mann-Whitney test, ANOVA, risk ratio and confidence intervals.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>MTCT occurred in 3.74%. The study population displayed a mean age of 27 years; 86.5% were found to have acquired HIV through sexual contact; 55% were aware of the diagnosis prior to the pregnancy; 62% were not using HAART. Mean CD4 cell-count was 474 cells/ml and 70.3% had undetectable viral loads in the third trimester. HAART included nevirapine in 35% of cases and protease inhibitors in 55%; Zidovudine monotherapy was used in 7.3%. Mean gestational age at delivery was 37.2 weeks and in 92% by caesarian section; 97.2% received intravenous zidovudine. Use of AZT to newborn occurred in 100% of them. Factors identified as associated to MTCT were: low CD4 cell counts, elevated viral loads, maternal AIDS, shorter periods receiving HAART, other conditions (anemia, IUGR (intra uterine growth restriction), oligohydramnium), coinfecctions (CMV and toxoplasmosis) and the occurrence of labor. Use of HAART for longer periods, caesarian and oral zidovudine for the newborns were associated with a decreased risk. Poor adhesion to treatment was present in 13 of the 15 cases of transmission; in 7, coinfecctions were diagnosed (CMV and toxoplasmosis).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Use of HAART and caesarian delivery are protective factors for mother-to-child transmission of HIV. Maternal coinfecctions and other conditions were risk factors for MTCT.</p