Toward predicting community-level effects of climate: relative temperature scaling of metabolic and ingestion rates

Predicting the effects of climate change on ecological communities requires an understanding of how environmental factors influence both physiological processes and species interactions. Specifically, the net impact of temperature on community structure depends on the relative response of physiological energetic costs (metabolism) and energetic gains (ingestion of resources) that mediate the flow of energy throughout a food web. However, the relative temperature scaling of metabolic and ingestion rates have rarely been measured for multiple species within an ecological assemblage and it is not known how, and to what extent, these relative scaling differences vary among species. To investigate the relative influence of these processes, I measured the temperature scaling of metabolic and ingestion rates for a suite of rocky intertidal species using a multiple regression experimental design. I compared oxygen consumption rates (as a proxy for metabolic rate) and ingestion rates by estimating the temperature scaling parameter of the universal temperature dependence (UTD) model, a theoretical model derived from first principles of biochemical kinetics and allometry. The results show that consumer metabolic rates (energetic costs) tend to be more sensitive to temperature than ingestion rates (energetic gains). Thus, as temperature increases, metabolic rates tend to increase faster relative to ingestion rates, causing the overall energetic efficiencies of these rocky intertidal invertebrates to decline. Metabolic and ingestion rates largely scaled in accordance with the UTD model; however, nonlinearity was evident in several cases, particularly at higher temperatures, in which alternative models were more appropriate. There are few studies where multiple rate dependencies are measured on multiple species from the same ecological community. These results indicate that there may be general patterns across species in the temperature scaling of biological rates, with important implications for forecasting temperature effects on ecological communities.This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the Ecological Society of America and can be found at: http://www.esajournals.org/loi/ecol. Supplemental Material can be found at: http://www.esapubs.org/archive/ecol/E095/231/Keywords: climate change, predation, rocky intertidal, food webs, herbivory, species interaction strength, body temperature, body mass, ingestion rate, metabolic rat

Bridging environmental physiology and community ecology : temperature effects at the community level

Most climate change predictions focus on the response of individual species to changing local conditions and ignore species interactions, largely due to the lack of a sound theoretical foundation for how interactions are expected to change with climate and how to incorporate them into climate change models. Much of the variability in species interaction strengths may be governed by fundamental constraints on physiological rates, possibly providing a framework for including species interactions into climate change models. Metabolic rates, ingestion rates and many other physiological rates are relatively predictable from body size and body temperature due to constraints imposed by the physical and chemical laws that govern fluid dynamics and the kinetics of biochemical reaction times. My dissertation assesses the usefulness of this framework by exploring the community-level consequences of physiological constraints. In Chapter 2, I incorporated temperature and body size scaling into the biological rate parameters of a series of realistically structured trophic network models. The relative magnitude of the temperature scaling parameters affecting consumer energetic costs (metabolic rates) and energetic gains (ingestion rates) determined how consumer energetic efficiency changed with temperature. I systematically changed consumer energetic efficiency and examined the sensitivity of network stability and species persistence to various temperatures. I found that a species' probability of extinction depended primarily on the effects of organismal physiology (body size and energetic efficiency with respect to temperature) and secondarily on the effects of local food web structure (trophic level and consumer generality). This suggests that physiology is highly influential on the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. If consumer energetic efficiency declined as temperature increased, that is, species did best at lower temperatures, then the simulated networks had greater stability at lower temperatures. The opposite scenario resulted in greater stability at higher temperatures. Thus, much of the community-level response depends on what species energetic efficiencies at the organismal-level really are, which formed the research question for Chapter 3: How does consumer energetic efficiency change with temperature? Existing evidence is scarce but suggestive of decreasing consumer energetic efficiency with increasing temperature. I tested this hypothesis on seven rocky intertidal invertebrate species by measuring the relative temperature scaling of their metabolic and ingestion rates as well as consumer interaction strength under lab conditions. Energetic efficiencies of these rocky intertidal invertebrates declined and species interaction strengths tended to increase with temperature. Thus, in the rocky intertidal, the mechanistic effect of temperature would be to lower community stability at higher temperatures. Chapter 4 tests if the mechanistic effects of temperature on ingestion rates and species interaction strengths seen in the lab are apparent under field conditions. Bruce Menge and I related bio-mimetic estimates of body temperatures to estimates of per capita mussel ingestion rates and species interaction strengths by the ochre sea star Pisaster ochraceus, a keystone predator of the rocky intertidal. We found a strong, positive effect of body temperature on both per capita ingestion rates and interaction strengths. However, the effects of season and the unique way in which P. ochraceus regulates body temperatures were also apparent, leaving room for adaptation and acclimation to partially compensate for the mechanistic constraint of body temperature. Community structure of the rocky intertidal is associated with environmental forcing due to upwelling, which delivers cold, nutrient rich water to the nearshore environment. As upwelling is driven by large-scale atmospheric pressure gradients, climate change has the potential to affect a wide range of significant ecological processes through changes in water temperature. In Chapter 5, my coauthors and I identified long-term trends in the phenology of upwelling events that are consistent with climate change predictions: upwelling events are becoming stronger and longer. As expected, longer upwelling events were related to lower average water temperatures in the rocky intertidal. Furthermore, recruitment rates of barnacles and mussels were associated with the phenology of upwelling events. Thus climate change is altering the mode and the tempo of environmental forcing in nearshore ecosystems, with ramifications for community structure and function. Ongoing, long-term changes in environmental forcing in rocky intertidal ecosystems provide an opportunity to understand how temperature shapes community structure and the ramifications of climate change. My dissertation research demonstrates that the effect of temperature on organismal performance is an important force structuring ecological communities and has potential as a tractable framework for predicting the community level effects of climate change

Complexity Increases Predictability in Allometrically Constrained Food Webs

All ecosystems are subjected to chronic disturbances, such as harvest, pollution, and climate change. The capacity to forecast how species respond to such press perturbations is limited by our imprecise knowledge of pairwise species interaction strengths and the many direct and indirect pathways along which perturbations can propagate between species. Network complexity (size and connectance) has thereby been seen to limit the predictability of ecological systems. Here we demonstrate a counteracting mechanism in which the influence of indirect effects declines with increasing network complexity when species interactions are governed by universal allometric constraints. With these constraints, network size and connectance interact to produce a skewed distribution of interaction strengths whose skew becomes more pronounced with increasing complexity. Together, the increased prevalence of weak interactions and the increased relative strength and rarity of strong interactions in complex networks limit disturbance propagation and preserve the qualitative predictability of net effects even when pairwise interaction strengths exhibit substantial variation or uncertainty

The intrinsic predictability of ecological time series and its potential to guide forecasting

Successfully predicting the future states of systems that are complex, stochastic, and potentially chaotic is a major challenge. Model forecasting error (FE) is the usual measure of success; however model predictions provide no insights into the potential for improvement. In short, the realized predictability of a specific model is uninformative about whether the system is inherently predictable or whether the chosen model is a poor match for the system and our observations thereof. Ideally, model proficiency would be judged with respect to the systems’ intrinsic predictability, the highest achievable predictability given the degree to which system dynamics are the result of deterministic vs. stochastic processes. Intrinsic predictability may be quantified with permutation entropy (PE), a model‐free, information‐theoretic measure of the complexity of a time series. By means of simulations, we show that a correlation exists between estimated PE and FE and show how stochasticity, process error, and chaotic dynamics affect the relationship. This relationship is verified for a data set of 461 empirical ecological time series. We show how deviations from the expected PE–FE relationship are related to covariates of data quality and the nonlinearity of ecological dynamics. These results demonstrate a theoretically grounded basis for a model‐free evaluation of a system's intrinsic predictability. Identifying the gap between the intrinsic and realized predictability of time series will enable researchers to understand whether forecasting proficiency is limited by the quality and quantity of their data or the ability of the chosen forecasting model to explain the data. Intrinsic predictability also provides a model‐free baseline of forecasting proficiency against which modeling efforts can be evaluated

Constraints on the χ_(c1) versus χ_(c2) polarizations in proton-proton collisions at √s = 8 TeV

The polarizations of promptly produced χ_(c1) and χ_(c2) mesons are studied using data collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC, in proton-proton collisions at √s=8  TeV. The χ_c states are reconstructed via their radiative decays χ_c → J/ψγ, with the photons being measured through conversions to e⁺e⁻, which allows the two states to be well resolved. The polarizations are measured in the helicity frame, through the analysis of the χ_(c2) to χ_(c1) yield ratio as a function of the polar or azimuthal angle of the positive muon emitted in the J/ψ → μ⁺μ⁻ decay, in three bins of J/ψ transverse momentum. While no differences are seen between the two states in terms of azimuthal decay angle distributions, they are observed to have significantly different polar anisotropies. The measurement favors a scenario where at least one of the two states is strongly polarized along the helicity quantization axis, in agreement with nonrelativistic quantum chromodynamics predictions. This is the first measurement of significantly polarized quarkonia produced at high transverse momentum

Mind the gap between policy imperatives and service provision: a qualitative study of the process of respiratory service development in England and Wales

The research was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Service Delivery and Organisation Programme. SDO/99/2005.Background: Healthcare systems globally are reconfiguring to address the needs of people with long-term conditions such as respiratory disease. Primary Care Organisations (PCOs) in England and Wales are charged with the task of developing cost-effective patient-centred local models of care. We aimed to investigate how PCOs in England and Wales are reconfiguring their workforce to develop respiratory services, and the background factors influencing service redesign. Methods: Semi-structured qualitative telephone interviews with the person(s) responsible for driving respiratory service reconfiguration in a purposive sample of 30 PCOs. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, coded and thematically analysed. Results: We interviewed representatives of 30 PCOs with diverse demographic profiles planning a range of models of care. Although the primary driver was consistently identified as the need to respond to a central policy to shift the delivery of care for people with long-term conditions into the community whilst achieving financial balance, the design and implementation of services were subject to a broad range of local, and at times serendipitous, influences. The focus was almost exclusively on the complex needs of patients at the top of the long-term conditions (LTC) pyramid, with the aim of reducing admissions. Whilst some PCOs seemed able to develop innovative care despite uncertainty and financial restrictions, most highlighted many barriers to progress, describing initiatives suddenly shelved for lack of money, progress impeded by reluctant clinicians, plans thwarted by conflicting policies and a PCO workforce demoralised by job insecurity. Conclusion: For many of our interviewees there was a large gap between central policy rhetoric driving workforce change, and the practical reality of implementing change within PCOs when faced with the challenges of limited resources, diverse professional attitudes and an uncertain organisational context. Research should concentrate on understanding these complex dynamics in order to inform the policymakers, commissioners, health service managers and professionals.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

More than a meal… integrating non-feeding interactions into food webs

Organisms eating each other are only one of many types of well documented and important interactions among species. Other such types include habitat modification, predator interference and facilitation. However, ecological network research has been typically limited to either pure food webs or to networks of only a few (<3) interaction types. The great diversity of non-trophic interactions observed in nature has been poorly addressed by ecologists and largely excluded from network theory. Herein, we propose a conceptual framework that organises this diversity into three main functional classes defined by how they modify specific parameters in a dynamic food web model. This approach provides a path forward for incorporating non-trophic interactions in traditional food web models and offers a new perspective on tackling ecological complexity that should stimulate both theoretical and empirical approaches to understanding the patterns and dynamics of diverse species interactions in nature.Keywords: Ecosystem engineering, Non-trophic interactions, Ecological network, Food web, Interaction modification, Facilitation, Trophic interaction

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies five new susceptibility loci for cutaneous malignant melanoma.

Thirteen common susceptibility loci have been reproducibly associated with cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). We report the results of an international 2-stage meta-analysis of CMM genome-wide association studies (GWAS). This meta-analysis combines 11 GWAS (5 previously unpublished) and a further three stage 2 data sets, totaling 15,990 CMM cases and 26,409 controls. Five loci not previously associated with CMM risk reached genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10(-8)), as did 2 previously reported but unreplicated loci and all 13 established loci. Newly associated SNPs fall within putative melanocyte regulatory elements, and bioinformatic and expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) data highlight candidate genes in the associated regions, including one involved in telomere biology.[Please see the Supplementary Note for acknowledgments.]This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from NPG via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ng.337

Measurement of the Y(1S) pair production cross section and search for resonances decaying to Y(1S)μ⁺μ⁻ in proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV

The fiducial cross section for Y(1S) pair production in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in the region where both Y(1S) mesons have an absolute rapidity below 2.0 is measured to be 79±11(stat)±6(syst)±3(B) pb assuming the mesons are produced unpolarized. The last uncertainty corresponds to the uncertainty in the Y(1S) meson dimuon branching fraction. The measurement is performed in the final state with four muons using proton-proton collision data collected in 2016 by the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9fb⁻¹. This process serves as a standard model reference in a search for narrow resonances decaying to Y(1S)μ⁺μ⁻ in the same final state. Such a resonance could indicate the existence of a tetraquark that is a bound state of two b quarks and two b antiquarks. The tetraquark search is performed for masses in the vicinity of four times the bottom quark mass, between 17.5 and 19.5 GeV, while a generic search for other resonances is performed for masses between 16.5 and 27 GeV. No significant excess of events compatible with a narrow resonance is observed in the data. Limits on the production cross section times branching fraction to four muons via an intermediate Y(1S) resonance are set as a function of the resonance mass

Measurement of the Y(1S) pair production cross section and search for resonances decaying to Y(1S)μ⁺μ⁻ in proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV

The fiducial cross section for Y(1S) pair production in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in the region where both Y(1S) mesons have an absolute rapidity below 2.0 is measured to be 79±11(stat)±6(syst)±3(B) pb assuming the mesons are produced unpolarized. The last uncertainty corresponds to the uncertainty in the Y(1S) meson dimuon branching fraction. The measurement is performed in the final state with four muons using proton-proton collision data collected in 2016 by the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9fb⁻¹. This process serves as a standard model reference in a search for narrow resonances decaying to Y(1S)μ⁺μ⁻ in the same final state. Such a resonance could indicate the existence of a tetraquark that is a bound state of two b quarks and two b antiquarks. The tetraquark search is performed for masses in the vicinity of four times the bottom quark mass, between 17.5 and 19.5 GeV, while a generic search for other resonances is performed for masses between 16.5 and 27 GeV. No significant excess of events compatible with a narrow resonance is observed in the data. Limits on the production cross section times branching fraction to four muons via an intermediate Y(1S) resonance are set as a function of the resonance mass