Foresight in Public Policymaking: An Exploration of Process Practices

Despite governments’ recognition of the importance of maintaining a forward-looking approach in policymaking, the actual inclusion of information and insight concerning the future into policy development does not appear widely implemented. However, existing literature on ‘public’ Foresight appears predominantly prescriptive, offering limited information concerning its actual practices and their possible consequences on both the output and its acceptance and uptake. The investigation focussed on how Foresight activities (“FAs”) are being carried out within the public sector, in order to identify which practices – in their preparation, execution, and management – could be ultimately affecting the way the insight thus generated is accepted and used (or not). This enquiry is intended to help identify best practices for FAs that can support both the quality of any insight produced and its ability to contribute to policy design and – ultimately – delivery. The goal was to explore and understand current practices and their possible effects and implications, in order to ‘abduce’ from them the theory components that would underpin said recommendations. Data collection for this Grounded Theory approach was carried out first during an in-depth case study, and subsequently during focused interviews carried out six years after the case. This made it possible for the events to play out fully, as well as allowing the subjects interviewed sufficient perspective and emotional distance from the facts. The data analysis led the Researcher to identify fifteen elements of practice that appear to have a crucial impact on the quality and performance of the outcomes of Foresight activities and exercises, as well as thirteen areas of impact which clarify where and how such quality and performance may be affected, and a table which attempts to map the connections between each element and the areas it influences. The thesis concludes with suggestions for fifteen recommendations for practitioners

First report of Bufo bufo (Linnaeus, 1758) from Sardinia (Italy)

The Common toad Bufo bufo (Linneaus, 1758) was found for the first time in Sardinia in 2016 during herpetological surveys. The species appears to be well established in the finding area. Many adults and juveniles, tadpoles at different developmental stages, and eggs have been found during repeated monitoring. In order to infer the geographic origin of the Sardinian population, we amplified two mitochondrial markers (16S, cytb) and compared sequences with those available for the species across its natural range. We also screened samples for the presence of Bd pathogen to assess the risk of infection mediated by the species in the area. Results suggest that Sardinian individuals are genetically close to the Central Italian populations, although they show a unique distinct haplotype. Though the species should be considered allochthonous to the Island, further molecular and ecological data are urgently needed to assess the genetic structure and the possible impact on the local fauna, which is largely composed by endemic taxa. Particularly, possible interactions with other native amphibians like the green toad Bufo balearicus (Boettger, 1880), also present in the area, should be investigated, both in terms of competition for breeding sites and genetic pollution, as these species are already known to hybridize in the wild

Species diversity and distribution of amphibians and reptiles in Sardinia, Italy

Although distribution databases are a dynamic tool, continuously updated, it is important to take "snapshots" of the species distribution over time to promptly identify potential conservation issues. With this work, we provide an update of the distribution of amphibians and reptiles in Sardinia and satellite islands. Data derive from both direct field observations (carried out since 2005 until July 2022) and literature, accounting for over 7000 records: 1416 records of 11 species of amphibians and 5600 records of 18 species of reptiles. Distribution maps (on 10 × 10 km UTM grid) of 29 species are provided in supplementary materials as well as the updated list of the amphibians and reptiles occurring in the circum-Sardinian islands. Most of the meshes were characterized by the presence of 1-3 amphibian species (73%) and 6-8 or 9-11 reptile species (32% with 6-8 species, 30% with 9-11 species). Species abundance was favoured by environmental heterogeneity, and mostly varied in relation to elevation range and edge density

Antibody response elicited by the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine booster in patients with multiple sclerosis: Who gains from it?

Background and purpose: Although two doses of COVID-19 vaccine elicited a protective humoral response in most persons with multiple sclerosis (pwMS), a significant group of them treated with immunosuppressive disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) showed less efficient responses.Methods: This prospective multicenter observational study evaluates differences in immune response after a third vaccine dose in pwMS.Results: Four hundred seventy-three pwMS were analyzed. Compared to untreated patients, there was a 50-fold decrease (95% confidence interval [CI]=14.3-100.0, p < 0.001) in serum SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels in those on rituximab, a 20-fold decrease (95% CI=8.3-50.0, p < 0.001) in those on ocrelizumab, and a 2.3-fold decrease (95% CI = 1.2-4.6, p = 0.015) in those on fingolimod. As compared to the antibody levels after the second vaccine dose, patients on the anti-CD20 drugs rituximab and ocrelizumab showed a 2.3-fold lower gain (95% CI = 1.4-3.8, p=0.001), whereas those on fingolimod showed a 1.7-fold higher gain (95% CI = 1.1-2.7, p = 0.012), compared to patients treated with other DMTs.Conclusions: All pwMS increased their serum SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels after the third vaccine dose. The mean antibody values of patients treated with ocrelizumab/rituximab remained well below the empirical "protective threshold" for risk of infection identified in the CovaXiMS study (>659 binding antibody units/mL), whereas for patients treated with fingolimod this value was significantly closer to the cutoff

Assessment of origin and fate of contaminants along mining-affected Rio Montevecchio (SW Sardinia, Italy): A hydrologic-tracer and environmental mineralogy study

Hydrologic tracer techniques were applied to Rio Montevecchio (SW Sardinia, Italy), a stream affected by mine drainage, allowing the calculation of discharge and contaminant loads. Discharge along the stream showed a constant increase throughout the 2.7 km-long study reach, up to 13.6 l/s at the last synoptic point. Calculated loads of mine-related constituents were large, reaching values of 1780 kg/day for, 340 kg/day for Zn, 47 kg/day for Fe, and 50 kg/day for Mn. The difference of the cumulative instream metal loads between the first and the last synoptic sampling points indicated gains of 421 kg/day for Zn, 2080 kg/day for, 56 kg/day for Mn, and 50 kg/day for Fe. The source areas critical for contaminants loading were almost all concentrated in the first 800 meters of the stream, with the exception of Pb, whose loading occurs evenly along the whole study reach. Precipitation of secondary minerals along the streambed was responsible for a very high attenuation of Al and Fe loads (66% and 77%) and affected also and Zn loads, though less effectively. Rio Montevecchio has the second highest metal load among the rivers investigated with tracer techniques in SW Sardinia. In comparison with Rio Irvi, which has one order of magnitude higher metal loads, natural attenuation processes limit the loads in Rio Montevecchio. Results are useful to clarify the hydrogeochemical paths involved in the release and attenuation of pollutants, improving our understanding of stream responses to contamination and aiding development of site-specific remediation actions

COVID-19 Severity in Multiple Sclerosis: Putting Data Into Context

Background and objectives: It is unclear how multiple sclerosis (MS) affects the severity of COVID-19. The aim of this study is to compare COVID-19-related outcomes collected in an Italian cohort of patients with MS with the outcomes expected in the age- and sex-matched Italian population. Methods: Hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death after COVID-19 diagnosis of 1,362 patients with MS were compared with the age- and sex-matched Italian population in a retrospective observational case-cohort study with population-based control. The observed vs the expected events were compared in the whole MS cohort and in different subgroups (higher risk: Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS] score > 3 or at least 1 comorbidity, lower risk: EDSS score ≤ 3 and no comorbidities) by the χ2 test, and the risk excess was quantified by risk ratios (RRs). Results: The risk of severe events was about twice the risk in the age- and sex-matched Italian population: RR = 2.12 for hospitalization (p < 0.001), RR = 2.19 for ICU admission (p < 0.001), and RR = 2.43 for death (p < 0.001). The excess of risk was confined to the higher-risk group (n = 553). In lower-risk patients (n = 809), the rate of events was close to that of the Italian age- and sex-matched population (RR = 1.12 for hospitalization, RR = 1.52 for ICU admission, and RR = 1.19 for death). In the lower-risk group, an increased hospitalization risk was detected in patients on anti-CD20 (RR = 3.03, p = 0.005), whereas a decrease was detected in patients on interferon (0 observed vs 4 expected events, p = 0.04). Discussion: Overall, the MS cohort had a risk of severe events that is twice the risk than the age- and sex-matched Italian population. This excess of risk is mainly explained by the EDSS score and comorbidities, whereas a residual increase of hospitalization risk was observed in patients on anti-CD20 therapies and a decrease in people on interferon

DMTs and Covid-19 severity in MS: a pooled analysis from Italy and France

We evaluated the effect of DMTs on Covid-19 severity in patients with MS, with a pooled-analysis of two large cohorts from Italy and France. The association of baseline characteristics and DMTs with Covid-19 severity was assessed by multivariate ordinal-logistic models and pooled by a fixed-effect meta-analysis. 1066 patients with MS from Italy and 721 from France were included. In the multivariate model, anti-CD20 therapies were significantly associated (OR = 2.05, 95%CI = 1.39–3.02, p < 0.001) with Covid-19 severity, whereas interferon indicated a decreased risk (OR = 0.42, 95%CI = 0.18–0.99, p = 0.047). This pooled-analysis confirms an increased risk of severe Covid-19 in patients on anti-CD20 therapies and supports the protective role of interferon

ll dragon boat come significativa esperienza di supporto tra pari per donne sopravvissute al cancro al seno

I benefici della attività fisica nel migliorare gli effetti collaterali dovuti ai trattamenti sono stati ampiamente studiati nelle diverse fasi del tumore al seno. I risultati più incoraggianti riguardano la fase di sopravvivenza, durante la quale l’attività fisica sembra costituire una efficace terapia di supporto atta a migliorare la qualità della vita e il benessere psicofisico e sociale. Numerosi sono oramai gli studi qualitativi che hanno analizzato i benefici del Dragon Boat. Questo sport tradizionale cinese è diventata popolare in ambito oncologico a seguito della costituzione nel 1996 di un equipaggio “Abreast in a Boat”, composto da donne canadesi operate al seno. Da allora gli equipaggi di “donne in rosa” sono spesso presenti nelle massime competizioni internazionali e nazionali. Il presente studio ha inteso analizzare, tramite interviste semi-strutturate, i significati condivisi che le donne operate al seno attribuiscono a tale esperienza sul piano fisico, psicologico, sociale e spirituale.The benefits of physical activity in improving the side effects of treatments have been widely studied in the different phases of breast cancer. The most encouraging results concern the survival phase, during which the physical activity appears to be an effective supportive therapy designed to improve the quality of life and the physical, mental and social well-being. There are numerous qualitative studies that have analysed the benefits of Dragon Boat. This traditional sport Chinese has become popular in oncology following the establishment in 1996 of a crew “Abreast in a Boat”, made up of Canadian women breast surgery. Since then, the “Pink Teams” are often present in the national and international competitions. This study, using semi-structured interviews, analyses the shared meanings that breast cancer survivors, assign to this experience of physical, psychological, social and spiritual well-being

Microwave Sensors for In Situ Monitoring of Trace Metals in Polluted Water

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