Evaluating the performance of survey-based operational management procedures

The design and evaluation of survey-based management strategies is addressed in this article, using three case-study fisheries: North Sea herring, Bay of Biscay anchovy and North Sea cod, with a brief history and the main management issues with each fishery outlined. A range of operational management procedures for the case study stocks were designed and evaluated using trends that may be derived from survey indices (spawner biomass, year-class strength and total mortality) with an array of simple and more structured observation error regimes simulated. Model-free and model-based indicators of stock status were employed in the management procedures. On the basis of stochastic stock-specific simulations, we identified the following key determinants of successful management procedures: (i) adequate specification of the stock-recruit relationship (model structure, parameter estimates and variability), (ii) knowledge of the magnitude and structure of the variation in the survey indices, and (iii) explication of the particular management objectives, when assessing management performance. More conservative harvesting strategies are required to meet specified targets in the presence of increasing stochasticity, due to both process and observation error. It was seen that survey-based operational management procedures can perform well in the absence of commercial data, and can also inform aspects of survey design with respect to acceptable levels of error or bias in the surveys

Modelling species presence–absence in the ecological niche theory framework using shape-constrained generalized additive models

According to ecological niche theory, species response curves are unimodal with respect to environmental gradients. A variety of statistical methods have been developed for species distribution modelling. A general problem with most of these habitat modelling approaches is that the estimated response curves can display biologically implausible shapes which do not respect ecological niche theory. This work proposes using shapeconstrained generalized additive models (SC-GAMs) to build species distribution models under the ecological niche theory framework, imposing concavity constraints in the linear predictor scale. Based on a simulation study and a real data application, we compared performance with respect to other regression models without shape-constraints (such as standard GLMs and GAMs with varying degrees of freedom) and also to models based on so-called “Plateau” climate-envelopes. The imposition of concavity for response curves resulted in a good balance between the goodness of fit (GOF) and agreement with ecological niche theory. The approach has been applied to fit distribution models for three fish species given several environmental variables

Applying a two-stage Bayesian dynamic model to a short lived species, the anchovy in the Aegean Sea (Eastern Mediterranean). Comparison with an Integrated Catch at Age stock assessment model.

Two different stock assessment models were applied to the North Aegean Sea anchovy stock (Eastern Mediterranean Sea): an Integrated Catch at age Analysis and a Bayesian two-stage biomass based model. Commercial catch data over the period 2000-2008 as well as acoustics and Daily Egg Production Method estimates over the period 2003-2008 were used. Both models results were consistent, indicating that anchovy stock is exploited sustainably in relation to an exploitation rate reference point. Further, the stock biomass appears stable or increasing. However, the limitations in age-composition data, potential problems related to misinterpretation of age readings along with the existence of missing values in the survey data seem to favour the two-stage biomass method, which is based on a simplified age structure.

Reference points for the Iberian sardine stock (ICES areas VIIIc and IXa)

Three Yield-Per-Recruit/stock-recruitment approaches (deterministic, stochastic with plotMSY and stochastic with HCS) were used to explore reference points for the management of the Iberian sardine. The sensitivity of reference points was evaluated in relation to alternative scenarios of productivity, growth and selectivity. Growth and selectivity scenarios had a small impact on stock projections whereas productivity scenarios were very influential. The three approaches gave coherent results, but the approach using HCS, assuming uncertainty in stock biology and recruitment dynamics, was preferred to derive reference points for sardine. In this approach, the risks of the stock fa lling below some low biomass level can also be taken into account. This possibility was considered to be useful in the case of the sardine for which exploitation at maximum YPR or F0.1 resulted in values above historical exploitation and higher than Floss, therefore unsuitable as precautionary management targets. Bloss (306 thousand t) is proposed as a proxy for Blim but given no indication that recruitment is impaired below this biomass level, the group considers that the level of risk of falling below this candidate for Blim acceptable in the evaluation of a management plan should be higher than the standard ICES value (5%).The stock productivity has declined over time; therefore a scenario of low productivity was assumed (recruitment in the period 1993-2010). Under this productivity scenario, the Fmsy value for the sardine stock is 0.34, a value associated with a high probability (45%) of the biomass falling below the proposed Blim and therefore, incompatible with precautionary considerations. The WG proposes an F= 0.27, corresponding to a Prob(B<Blim)<15% under equilibrium, as the best available candidate for an F management target (proxy for Fmsy) assuming the low productivity scenario (since 1993) will continue in the future. This F provides high yield conditional to a low probability that the biomass falls below Blim=Bloss in equilibrium, thus incorporating precautionary considerations

ICES. 2019. Working Group on Southern Horse Mackerel, Anchovy and Sardine (WGHANSA).

The Working Group on Southern Horse Mackerel, Anchovy and Sardine (WGHANSA1) met by correspondence from 3 to 7 June 2019, and in Madrid from the 25 to the 28 of November 2019, and was chaired by Alexandra Silva (Portugal). There were 13 participants from France, Portugal, Spain and UK. The main task of WGHANSA was to assess the status the stocks of sardine in the Celtic Seas and English Channel (pil.27.7), sardine in the Bay of Biscay (pil.27.8abd), sardine in the Cantabrian Sea and Atlantic Iberian waters (pil.27.8c9a), anchovy in the Bay of Biscay (ane.27.8), anchovy in Atlantic Iberian waters (ane.27.9a; components west and south), horse mackerel in Atlantic Iberian waters (hom.27.9a) and jack mackerel in the Azores (jaa.27.10). Assessments and short-term forecasts were updated according to the stock annexes. There is no assessment method adopted for pil.27.7 due to the lack of data. The stock of pil.27.8abd was assessed as category 1 for the first time, following an interbenchmark. Recruitment has been above the average, the spawning–stock biomass declined and fishing mortality steeply increased in 2010–2012. SSB is fluctuating above MSY Btrigger and F2018 is above FMSY and below Fpa. This year, the DEPM datapoint for 2017 was included in the pil.27.9a assessment for the first time, following a revision of the survey data. The stock has decreased since 2006 and stabilized to a historical low since 2012. The biomass of age 1 and older fish has been decreasing since 2006 and reached the lowest historical value in 2015. It has since increased slightly but is below Blim since 2011. Recruitment has been below the time-series average since 2005. Recruitment in 2018 was around the geometric mean of the last five years. Fishing mortality has been decreasing from a peak in 2011. In 2018, it was the lowest in the time-series and below Fpa and Flim. The stock size indicator for anchovy in 9a.west decreased 90% from 2018 to 2019 (4129 t), after a period of an increasing trend since 2014. The harvest rate decreased 67% from management year 2017 to 2018 being below the median of the historical time-series.The relative spawning–stock biomass of the south component of the anchovy 9.a stock has fluctuated without a trend over the time-series, with most of the values above Bpa. From 2018 to 2019, the relative SSB decreased 5% but is still well above Bpa. Relative Fishing mortality (F) has fluctuated with no clear trend. From management year 2017 to 2018, relative F decreased 93%. The SSB of horse mackerel in Division 9.a fluctuated from 1992, the beginning of the assessment period, to 2012–2013 and afterwards increased continuously to a historical maximum, in 2018. The consistently high recruitment since 2011 has contributed to the SSB increase. Fishing mortality was 0.029 year -1 in 2018, showing a 29% decrease compared to 2017. Fishing mortality has been below FMSY over the whole time-series. The spawning–stock biomass has been above MSY Btrigger over the whole time-series. The exploration of data on anchovy abundance-at-age from juvenile surveys IBERAS-JUVESAR and ECOCADIZ-RECLUTAS indicated the series are still short to conclude about their future incorporation into the assessments. The analyses of internal consistency of the indices and of their consistency with spring acoustic surveys showed promising results for ECOCADIZ-RECLUTAS and pointed out the need to revisit the results of some of the surveys, particularly the IBERAS_JUVESAR series. For sardine, 0-group abundance from IBERAS-JUVESAR (2013–2019) combined with data from an earlier autumn survey, SAR-PT-AUT (discontinued in 2008) covering the northwestern Iberian waters, showed a significant correlation with the abundance of age 1 individuals in surveys carried out in the following spring

La Cuevona de Avín (Avín, Asturias, North Spain): A new Late Pleistocene site in the lower valley of the River Güeña

The archaeological investigations carried out in the last twenty years in the Lower Valley of the River Güeña (Asturias, central part of northern Spain) have documented different prehistoric sites, particularly with Middle and Upper Palaeolithic occupations. This paper presents the first results of the archaeological excavation carried out in the cave of La Cuevona de Avín. From the systematic study of the biotic and abiotic remains, a total of three occupation phases (Phases 1 to 3) have been determined, dated in the Late Pleistocene. The lithic studies indicate the use of local raw materials (mainly quartzite), but also regional ones (different types of flint) in the whole sequence. Retouched implements are typologically representative only during the Upper Magdalenian (Phase II) and use-wear analysis indicates the manufacture and use of artefacts in situ during this phase. Archaeozoological studies reveal continuity in subsistence strategies throughout the sequence, noting specialization in red deer hunting during the Azilian (Phase I), and more diversified prey in the older phases of the sequence. © 2022 The Author(s