Bracing for the Typhoon: Climate Change and Sovereign Risk in Southeast Asia

This article investigates and empirically tests the link between climate change and sovereign risk in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian countries are among those most heavily affected by climate change. The number and intensity of extreme weather events in the region have been increasing markedly, causing severe social and economic damage. Southeast Asian economies are also exposed to gradual effects of global warming as well as transition risks stemming from policies aimed at mitigating climate change. To empirically examine the effect of climate change on the sovereign risk of Southeast Asian countries, we employ indices for vulnerability and resilience to climate change and estimate country-specific OLS models for six countries and a fixed effects panel using monthly data for the period 2002–2018. Both the country-specific and the panel results show that greater climate vulnerability appears to have a sizable positive effect on sovereign bond yields, while greater resilience to climate change has an offsetting effect, albeit to a lesser extent. A higher cost of debt holds back much-needed investment in public infrastructure and climate adaptation, increases the risk of debt sustainability problems, and diminishes the development prospects of Southeast Asian countries

Lessons from the Making of the MDGs: Human Development Meets Results?based Management in an Unfair World

This article argues that two ideas – human development and results?based management – were particularly significant in shaping the MDGs. These are unlikely intellectual bedfellows, but by charting the evolution of the MDGs, their many influences are demonstrated. The conclusion identifies three main lessons. First, it argues that the MDGs have had only limited impact on policies and actions because the idea behind them, human development, was never fully institutionalised. Second, the article points out the disjuncture that occurred with global goals, the MDGs being operationalised by country level Poverty Reduction Strategies (PRSs) overseen by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. PRSs need to be genuinely owned by countries, and the IMF and World Bank need to introduce internal ‘Arrogance Reduction Strategies’ to transform their control?oriented cultures. Finally, the conclusion questions whether the idea of human development is past its ‘sell?by’ date – do we need a new idea to mobilise and guide post?2015 pro?poor policy

Anomaly or Augury? Global Food Prices Since 2007

This article reviews the dynamics of global food prices since the food crisis of2007–08, the extent to which international prices have influenced national prices and poverty and wellbeing outcomes, and considers whether this exceptional period represents an anomaly or likely signals future episodes of food price volatility. It finds that although some factors that contributed to recent events have eased considerably, some significant drivers remain structural threats to future food security. There is little reason to be confident that recent reductions in food prices and volatilities augur well for the food security or wellbeing of those living on low and precarious incomes in the future

MEASURING THE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF TRANSITION ECONOMIES:SOME LESSONS FROM CHINESE EXPERIENCE

This article quantifies the comparative performance of China in several dimensions. Firstly, it shows that China's move from a command to a market economy was less abrupt and more successful than that of 29 other economies making a similar transition. Secondly, while official estimates show annual GDP growth of 9.6 percent in 1978-2003, this is reduced to 7.9 percent after adjustment for exaggeration of industrial performance and growth in non-material services. Thirdly, as the exchange rate understates China's achievement, a purchasing power parity (PPP) converter is necessary to measure comparative level of performance. Our PPP converter shows that China in 2005 was the world's second largest economy, with a GDP about 80 percent of the U.S. It is assumed that China will have overtaken the U.S. as the world's biggest economy before 2015. Until recently, the World Bank estimate of the PPP for China was close to that of Maddison, but the Bank's new estimate for 2005 shows Chinese GDP about half this level. The Bank's new estimates for China and other Asian countries are not plausible, and this paper advances several reasons for rejecting them. Finally, energy use per head of population is a good deal smaller than that of the U.S., and its total energy use for a much bigger population is likely to be somewhat smaller than that of the U.S. in 2030. However, heavy dependence on dirty coal means that it will have bigger carbon emissions than the U.S. This is a major problem as Beijing and other big cities already have severe pollution problems

Macroeconomic Trends, Vulnerability and Resilience Capability in Small Island Developing States

The purpose of this chapter is to provide a snapshot of small island economies, which are scattered across three geographical regions, namely, the Caribbean, the Pacific, and the Atlantic Indian Ocean, Mediterranean and South China Sea (AIMS). We document and analyse their macroeconomic parameters, degree of their vulnerability and damages caused by natural disasters and climate change. Since most of the small islands have little resources to bear the losses and restore their livelihood, and houses and industries, the role of international financial and other supports in improving their resilience capability is reviewed