Accounting for Skill in Trend, Variability, and Autocorrelation Facilitates Better Multi-Model Projections: Application to the AMOC and Temperature Time Series

We present a novel quasi-Bayesian method to weight multiple dynamical models by their skill at capturing both potentially non-linear trends and first-order autocorrelated variability of the underlying process, and to make weighted probabilistic projections. We validate the method using a suite of one-at-a-time cross-validation experiments involving Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), its temperature-based index, as well as Korean summer mean maximum temperature. In these experiments the method tends to exhibit superior skill over a trend-only Bayesian model averaging weighting method in terms of weight assignment and probabilistic forecasts. Specifically, mean credible interval width, and mean absolute error of the projections tend to improve. We apply the method to a problem of projecting summer mean maximum temperature change over Korea by the end of the 21st century using a multi-model ensemble. Compared to the trend-only method, the new method appreciably sharpens the probability distribution function (pdf) and increases future most likely, median, and mean warming in Korea. The method is flexible, with a potential to improve forecasts in geosciences and other fields

The Spitzer C2D Survey of Nearby Dense Cores: Jet and Molecular Outflow Associated With A Young Stellar Object in Core A of L1251

A long infrared jet has been discovered by the Spitzer c2d Legacy Program in core A of L1251. It is associated with a very embedded Class 0 object with an accretion luminosity of about 0.9 L(circle dot) derived by radiative transfer model fitting to the observed spectral energy distribution. Comparing the observed Infrared Array Camera colors along the infrared jet with those calculated from a model of an admixture of gas with a power-law temperature distribution indicates that the jet is possibly created by a paraboloidal bow shock propagating into the ambient medium of n(H(2)) = 10(5) cm(-3). In addition, the variation of the power-law index along the jet suggests that the portion of hot gas decreases with distance from the jet engine. The molecular outflow in this region has been mapped for the first time using CO data. From the calculated outflow momentum flux, a very strong lower limit to the average accretion luminosity is 3.6 sin i/cos(3) i L(circle dot), indicative of a decrease in the accretion rate with time.Korean government (MEST) 2009-0062865NRF R01-2007-000-20336-0NASA 1407, 1224608Astronom

Effect of warm intravenous and irrigating fluids on body temperature during transurethral resection of the prostate gland

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Transurethral resection of the prostate gland with irrigation fluid at room temperature leads to perioperative hypothermia which could give rise to adverse cardiovascular events in the perioperative period. The use of isothermic irrigation fluid reduces but does not eliminate this risk. Routine use of warm intravenous fluids along with isothermic irrigation had not been documented. This study set out to investigate the effect of the use of warm intravenous fluid together with isothermic irrigation fluid on the body temperature in patients undergoing transurethral resection of the prostate gland.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>One hundred and twenty consented patients with obstructing benign prostatic hyperplasia were randomly assigned to one of 3 groups. Group 1 received irrigation and intravenous fluids at room temperature, group 2 received warmed irrigation fluid at 38°C along with intravenous fluid at room temperature while group 3 patients received warmed irrigation fluid and warmed intravenous fluids at 38°C. Their perioperative body temperature changes were monitored, analyzed and compared.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean decrease in body temperature at the end of the procedure was significantly greater in group 1 (0.98 ± 0.56°C) than in group 2 (0.42 ± .21°C) (p < 0.001). Significantly more patients in group 1 also experienced shivering. However, in group 3, there was no significant change in the mean body temperature (p > 0.05) and none of them felt cold or shivered.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>It is concluded that the use of isothermic irrigation fluid together with warm intravenous fluids during TURP prevents the occurrence of perioperative hypothermia.</p> <p>Trial registration number</p> <p>CCT-NAPN-15944</p

Ordinary-derivative formulation of conformal totally symmetric arbitrary spin bosonic fields

Conformal totally symmetric arbitrary spin bosonic fields in flat space-time of even dimension greater than or equal to four are studied. Second-derivative (ordinary-derivative) formulation for such fields is developed. We obtain gauge invariant Lagrangian and the corresponding gauge transformations. Gauge symmetries are realized by involving the Stueckelberg and auxiliary fields. Realization of global conformal boost symmetries on conformal gauge fields is obtained. Modified de Donder gauge condition and de Donder-Stueckelberg gauge condition are introduced. Using the de Donder-Stueckelberg gauge frame, equivalence of the ordinary-derivative and higher-derivative approaches is demonstrated. On-shell degrees of freedom of the arbitrary spin conformal field are analyzed. Ordinary-derivative light-cone gauge Lagrangian of conformal fields is also presented. Interrelations between the ordinary-derivative gauge invariant formulation of conformal fields and the gauge invariant formulation of massive fields are discussed.Comment: 51 pages, v2: Results and conclusions of v1 unchanged. In Sec.3, brief review of higher-derivative approaches added. In Sec.4, new representations for Lagrangian, modified de Donder gauge, and de Donder-Stueckelberg gauge added. In Sec.5, discussion of interrelations between the ordinary-derivative and higher-derivative approaches added. Appendices A,B,C,D and references adde

Gauge gravity duality for d-wave superconductors: prospects and challenges

We write down an action for a charged, massive spin two field in a fixed Einstein background. Despite some technical problems, we argue that in an effective field theory framework and in the context of the AdS/CFT correspondence, this action can be used to study the properties of a superfluid phase transition with a d-wave order parameter in a dual strongly interacting field theory. We investigate the phase diagram and the charge conductivity of the superfluid phase. We also explain how possible couplings between the spin two field and bulk fermions affect the fermion spectral function.Comment: 42 pages, 6 figure

Development and Validation of the Behavioral Tendencies Questionnaire

At a fundamental level, taxonomy of behavior and behavioral tendencies can be described in terms of approach, avoid, or equivocate (i.e., neither approach nor avoid). While there are numerous theories of personality, temperament, and character, few seem to take advantage of parsimonious taxonomy. The present study sought to implement this taxonomy by creating a questionnaire based on a categorization of behavioral temperaments/tendencies first identified in Buddhist accounts over fifteen hundred years ago. Items were developed using historical and contemporary texts of the behavioral temperaments, described as “Greedy/Faithful”, “Aversive/Discerning”, and “Deluded/Speculative”. To both maintain this categorical typology and benefit from the advantageous properties of forced-choice response format (e.g., reduction of response biases), binary pairwise preferences for items were modeled using Latent Class Analysis (LCA). One sample (n1 = 394) was used to estimate the item parameters, and the second sample (n2 = 504) was used to classify the participants using the established parameters and cross-validate the classification against multiple other measures. The cross-validated measure exhibited good nomothetic span (construct-consistent relationships with related measures) that seemed to corroborate the ideas present in the original Buddhist source documents. The final 13-block questionnaire created from the best performing items (the Behavioral Tendencies Questionnaire or BTQ) is a psychometrically valid questionnaire that is historically consistent, based in behavioral tendencies, and promises practical and clinical utility particularly in settings that teach and study meditation practices such as Mindfulness Based Stress Reduction (MBSR)

d+idd+id Holographic Superconductors

A holographic model of $d+id$ superconductors based on the action proposed by Benini, Herzog, and Yarom [arXiv:1006.0731] is studied. This model has a charged spin two field in an AdS black hole spacetime. Working in the probe limit, the normalizable solution of the spin two field in the bulk gives rise to a $d+id$ superconducting order parameter at the boundary of the AdS. We calculate the fermion spectral function in this\ superconducting background and confirm the existence of fermi arcs for non-vanishing Majorana couplings. By changing the relative strength $\gamma$ of the $d$ and $id$ condensations, the position and the size of the fermi arcs are changed. When $\gamma =1$, the spectrum becomes isotropic and the spectral function is s-wave like. By changing the fermion mass, the fermi momentum is changed. We also calculate the conductivity for these holographic $d+id$ superconductors where time reversal symmetry has been broken spontaneously. A non-vanishing Hall conductivity is obtained even without an external magnetic field.Comment: 24 pages,17 figures, Add more discussions on hall conductivity, two new figures, Matched with published versio

Solitary waves in the Nonlinear Dirac Equation

In the present work, we consider the existence, stability, and dynamics of solitary waves in the nonlinear Dirac equation. We start by introducing the Soler model of self-interacting spinors, and discuss its localized waveforms in one, two, and three spatial dimensions and the equations they satisfy. We present the associated explicit solutions in one dimension and numerically obtain their analogues in higher dimensions. The stability is subsequently discussed from a theoretical perspective and then complemented with numerical computations. Finally, the dynamics of the solutions is explored and compared to its non-relativistic analogue, which is the nonlinear Schr{\"o}dinger equation. A few special topics are also explored, including the discrete variant of the nonlinear Dirac equation and its solitary wave properties, as well as the PT-symmetric variant of the model

Primordial black holes under the double inflationary power spectrum

Recently, it has been shown that the primordial black holes (PBHs) produced by near critical collapse in the expanding universe have a scaling mass relation similar to that of black holes produced in asymptotically flat spacetime. Distinct from PBHs formed with mass about the horizon mass (Type I), the PBHs with the scaling relation (Type II) can be created with a range of masses at a given formation time. In general, only the case in which the PBH formation is concentrated at one epoch has been considered. However, it is expected that PBH formation is possible over a broad range of epochs if the density fluctuation has a rather large amplitude and smooth scale dependence. In this paper, we study the PBH formation for both types assuming the power spectrum of double inflationary models in which the small scale fluctuations could have large amplitudes independent of the CMBR anisotropy. The mass spectrum of Type II PBHs is newly constructed without limiting the PBH formation period. The double inflationary power spectrum is assumed to be of double simple power-law which are smoothly connected. Under the assumed power spectrum, the accumulation of small PBHs formed at later times is important and the mass range is significantly broadened for both Types. The PBH mass spectra are far smoother than the observed MACHO spectrum due to our assumption of a smooth spectrum. In order to fit the observation, a more spiky spectrum is required.Comment: 7 pages including 2 figures, to be published in Phys. Rev.