Multiple imputation for patient reported outcome measures in randomised controlled trials : advantages and disadvantages of imputing at the item, subscale or composite score level

Background Missing data can introduce bias in the results of randomised controlled trials (RCTs), but are typically unavoidable in pragmatic clinical research, especially when patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) are used. Traditionally applied to the composite PROMs score of multi-item instruments, some recent research suggests that multiple imputation (MI) at the item level may be preferable under certain scenarios. This paper presents practical guidance on the choice of MI models for handling missing PROMs data based on the characteristics of the trial dataset. The comparative performance of complete cases analysis, which is commonly used in the analysis of RCTs, is also considered. Methods Realistic missing at random data were simulated using follow-up data from an RCT considering three different PROMs (Oxford Knee Score (OKS), EuroQoL 5 Dimensions 3 Levels (EQ-5D-3L), 12-item Short Form Survey (SF-12)). Data were multiply imputed at the item (using ordinal logit and predicted mean matching models), sub-scale and score level; unadjusted mean outcomes, as well as treatment effects from linear regression models were obtained for 1000 simulations. Performance was assessed by root mean square errors (RMSE) and mean absolute errors (MAE). Results Convergence problems were observed for MI at the item level. Performance generally improved with increasing sample sizes and lower percentages of missing data. Imputation at the score and subscale level outperformed imputation at the item level in small sample sizes (n ≤ 200). Imputation at the item level is more accurate for high proportions of item-nonresponse. All methods provided similar results for large sample sizes (≥500) in this particular case study. Conclusions Many factors, including the prevalence of missing data in the study, sample size, the number of items within the PROM and numbers of levels within the individual items, and planned analyses need consideration when choosing an imputation model for missing PROMs data

Rates, predictive factors and effectiveness of ustekinumab intensification to 4- or 6-weekly intervals in Crohn's disease

Background: The UNITI trial reports efficacy of ustekinumab (UST) dose intensification in Crohn's disease (CD) from 12- to 8-weekly, but not 4-weekly. We aimed 1) to assess the cumulative incidence of UST dose intensification to 4- or 6-weekly, 2) to identify factors associated with dose intensification, and 3) to assess the effectiveness of this strategy. Methods: We performed a retrospective, observational cohort study in NHS Lothian including all UST treated CD patients (2015–2020). Results: 163 CD patients were treated with UST (median follow-up: 20.3 months [13.4–38.4]), of whom 55 (33.7%) underwent dose intensification to 4-weekly (n = 50, 30.7%) or 6-weekly (n = 5, 3.1%). After 1 year 29.9% were dose intensified. Prior exposure to both anti-TNF and vedolizumab (HR 9.5; 1.3–70.9), and concomitant steroid use at UST start (HR 1.8; 1.0–3.1) were associated with dose intensification. Following dose intensification, 62.6% patients (29/55) remained on UST beyond 1 year. Corticosteroid-free clinical remission was achieved in 27% at week 16 and 29.6% at last follow-up. Conclusion: One third of CD patients treated with UST underwent dose intensification to a 4- or 6-weekly interval within the first year. Patients who failed both anti-TNF and vedolizumab, or required steroids at initiation were more likely to dose intensify.</p

Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

The price of rapid exit in venture capital-backed IPOs

This paper proposes an explanation for two empirical puzzles surrounding initial public offerings (IPOs). Firstly, it is well documented that IPO underpricing increases during “hot issue” periods. Secondly, venture capital (VC) backed IPOs are less underpriced than non-venture capital backed IPOs during normal periods of activity, but the reverse is true during hot issue periods: VC backed IPOs are more underpriced than non-VC backed ones. This paper shows that when IPOs are driven by the initial investor’s desire to exit from an existing investment in order to finance a new venture, both the value of the new venture and the value of the existing firm to be sold in the IPO drive the investor’s choice of price and fraction of shares sold in the IPO. When this is the case, the availability of attractive new ventures increases equilibrium underpricing, which is what we observe during hot issue periods. Moreover, I show that underpricing is affected by the severity of the moral hazard problem between an investor and the firm’s manager. In the presence of a moral hazard problem the degree of equilibrium underpricing is more sensitive to changes in the value of the new venture. This can explain why venture capitalists, who often finance firms with more severe moral hazard problems, underprice IPOs less in normal periods, but underprice more strongly during hot issue periods. Further empirical implications relating the fraction of shares sold and the degree of underpricing are presented

Effectiveness and Safety of Adalimumab Biosimilar SB5 in IBD:Outcomes in Originator to SB5 Switch, Double Biosimilar Switch and Bio-Naieve SB5 Observational Cohorts

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Multiple adalimumab [ADA] biosimilars are now approved for use in inflammatory bowel disease [IBD]; however, effectiveness and safety data remain scarce. We aimed to investigate long-term outcomes of the ADA biosimilar SB5 in IBD patients following a switch from the ADA originator [SB5-switch cohort] or after start of SB5 [SB5-start cohort]. METHODS: We performed an observational cohort study in a tertiary IBD referral centre. All IBD patients treated with Humira underwent an elective switch to SB5. We identified all these patients in a biological prescription database that prospectively registered all ADA start and stop dates including brand names. Data on IBD phenotype, C-reactive protein [CRP], drug persistence, ADA drug and antibody levels, and faecal calprotectin were collected. RESULTS: In total, 481 patients were treated with SB5, 256 in the SB5-switch cohort (median follow-up: 13.7 months [IQR 8.6–15.2]) and 225 in the SB5-start cohort [median follow-up: 8.3 months [4.2–12.8]). Of the SB5-switch cohort, 70.8% remained on SB5 beyond 1 year; 90/256 discontinued SB5, mainly due to adverse events [46/90] or secondary loss of response [37/90]. In the SB5-start cohort, 81/225 discontinued SB5, resulting in SB5-drug persistence of 60.3% beyond 1 year. No differences in clinical remission [p = 0.53], CRP [p = 0.80], faecal calprotectin [p = 0.40] and ADA trough levels [p = 0.55] were found between baseline, week 26 and week 52 following switch. Injection site pain was the most frequently reported adverse event. CONCLUSION: Switching from ADA originator to SB5 appeared effective and safe in this study with over 12 months of follow-up

A novel aspect of the structure of the avian thymic medulla.

We provide evidence for the compartmentalization of the avian thymic medulla and identify the avian thymic dendritic cell. The thymic anlage develops from an epithelial cord of the branchial endoderm. Branches of the cord are separated by primary septae of neural crest origin. The dilation of the primary septae produces the keratin-negative area (KNA) of the thymic medulla and fills the gaps of the keratin-positive network (KPN). Morphometric analysis indicates that the KNA takes up about half of the volume of the thymic medulla, which has reticular connective tissue, like peripheral lymphoid organs. The KNA receives blood vessels and in addition to pericytes, the myoid cells of striated muscle structure occupy this area. The myoid cells are of branchial arch or prechordal plate origin providing indirect evidence for the neural crest origin of the KNA. The marginal epithelial cells of the KPN co-express keratin and vimentin intermediate filaments, which indicate their functional peculiarity. The basal lamina of the primary septum is discontinuous on the surface of the KPN providing histological evidence for the loss of the blood-thymus barrier in the medulla. In the center of the KNA, the dendritic cells lie in close association with blood vessels, whereas the B-cells accumulate along the KPN. The organization of the KPN and KNA increases the "surface" of the so-called cortico-medullary border, thereby contributing to the efficacy of central tolerance

Long-term follow-up of breast cancer survivors with post-mastectomy pain syndrome

Post-mastectomy pain syndrome (PMPS) is a recognised complication of breast surgery although little is known about the long-term outcome of this chronic pain condition. In 1996, Smith et al identified a prevalence rate of PMPS of 43% among 408 women in the Grampian Region, Northeast Scotland. The aim of this study was to assess long-term outcome at 7–12 years postoperatively in this cohort of women, to describe the natural history of PMPS and impact of pain upon quality of life. Chronic pain and quality of life were assessed using the McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ) and Short Form-36 (SF-36). Of 175 women reporting PMPS in 1996, 138 were eligible for questionnaire follow-up in 2002. Mean time since surgery was 9 years (s.d. 1.8 years). A response rate of 82% (113 out of 138) was achieved; 59 out of 113 (52%) women reported continued PMPS and 54 out of 113 (48%) women reported their PMPS had resolved since the previous survey in 1996. Quality of life scores were significantly lower in women with persistent PMPS compared to those women whose pain had resolved. However, for women with persistent PMPS, SF-36 scores had improved over time. Risk factors for persistent PMPS included younger age and heavier weight. This study found that, of women reporting PMPS in 1996, half of those surveyed in 2002 continued to experience PMPS at a mean of 9 years after surgery

A meta-analysis of long-term effects of conservation agriculture on maize grain yield under rain-fed conditions

Conservation agriculture involves reduced tillage, permanent soil cover and crop rotations to enhance soil fertility and to supply food from a dwindling land resource. Recently, conservation agriculture has been promoted in Southern Africa, mainly for maize-based farming systems. However, maize yields under rain-fed conditions are often variable. There is therefore a need to identify factors that influence crop yield under conservation agriculture and rain-fed conditions. Here, we studied maize grain yield data from experiments lasting 5 years and more under rain-fed conditions. We assessed the effect of long-term tillage and residue retention on maize grain yield under contrasting soil textures, nitrogen input and climate. Yield variability was measured by stability analysis. Our results show an increase in maize yield over time with conservation agriculture practices that include rotation and high input use in low rainfall areas. But we observed no difference in system stability under those conditions. We observed a strong relationship between maize grain yield and annual rainfall. Our meta-analysis gave the following findings: (1) 92% of the data show that mulch cover in high rainfall areas leads to lower yields due to waterlogging; (2) 85% of data show that soil texture is important in the temporal development of conservation agriculture effects, improved yields are likely on well-drained soils; (3) 73% of the data show that conservation agriculture practices require high inputs especially N for improved yield; (4) 63% of data show that increased yields are obtained with rotation but calculations often do not include the variations in rainfall within and between seasons; (5) 56% of the data show that reduced tillage with no mulch cover leads to lower yields in semi-arid areas; and (6) when adequate fertiliser is available, rainfall is the most important determinant of yield in southern Africa. It is clear from our results that conservation agriculture needs to be targeted and adapted to specific biophysical conditions for improved impact

Anti-cancer effects and mechanism of actions of aspirin analogues in the treatment of glioma cancer

INTRODUCTION: In the past 25 years only modest advancements in glioma treatment have been made, with patient prognosis and median survival time following diagnosis only increasing from 3 to 7 months. A substantial body of clinical and preclinical evidence has suggested a role for aspirin in the treatment of cancer with multiple mechanisms of action proposed including COX 2 inhibition, down regulation of EGFR expression, and NF-κB signaling affecting Bcl-2 expression. However, with serious side effects such as stroke and gastrointestinal bleeding, aspirin analogues with improved potency and side effect profiles are being developed. METHOD: Effects on cell viability following 24 hr incubation of four aspirin derivatives (PN508, 517, 526 and 529) were compared to cisplatin, aspirin and di-aspirin in four glioma cell lines (U87 MG, SVG P12, GOS – 3, and 1321N1), using the PrestoBlue assay, establishing IC50 and examining the time course of drug effects. RESULTS: All compounds were found to decrease cell viability in a concentration and time dependant manner. Significantly, the analogue PN517 (IC50 2mM) showed approximately a twofold increase in potency when compared to aspirin (3.7mM) and cisplatin (4.3mM) in U87 cells, with similar increased potency in SVG P12 cells. Other analogues demonstrated similar potency to aspirin and cisplatin. CONCLUSION: These results support the further development and characterization of novel NSAID derivatives for the treatment of glioma