Coherent frequentism

By representing the range of fair betting odds according to a pair of confidence set estimators, dual probability measures on parameter space called frequentist posteriors secure the coherence of subjective inference without any prior distribution. The closure of the set of expected losses corresponding to the dual frequentist posteriors constrains decisions without arbitrarily forcing optimization under all circumstances. This decision theory reduces to those that maximize expected utility when the pair of frequentist posteriors is induced by an exact or approximate confidence set estimator or when an automatic reduction rule is applied to the pair. In such cases, the resulting frequentist posterior is coherent in the sense that, as a probability distribution of the parameter of interest, it satisfies the axioms of the decision-theoretic and logic-theoretic systems typically cited in support of the Bayesian posterior. Unlike the p-value, the confidence level of an interval hypothesis derived from such a measure is suitable as an estimator of the indicator of hypothesis truth since it converges in sample-space probability to 1 if the hypothesis is true or to 0 otherwise under general conditions.Comment: The confidence-measure theory of inference and decision is explicitly extended to vector parameters of interest. The derivation of upper and lower confidence levels from valid and nonconservative set estimators is formalize

Transcriptomic assessment of resistance to effects of an aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) agonist in embryos of Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) from a marine Superfund site

© The Author(s), 2011. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in BMC Genomics 12 (2011): 263, doi:10.1186/1471-2164-12-263.Populations of Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) have evolved resistance to the embryotoxic effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and other halogenated and nonhalogenated aromatic hydrocarbons that act through an aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR)-dependent signaling pathway. The resistance is accompanied by reduced sensitivity to induction of cytochrome P450 1A (CYP1A), a widely used biomarker of aromatic hydrocarbon exposure and effect, but whether the reduced sensitivity is specific to CYP1A or reflects a genome-wide reduction in responsiveness to all AHR-mediated changes in gene expression is unknown. We compared gene expression profiles and the response to 3,3',4,4',5-pentachlorobiphenyl (PCB-126) exposure in embryos (5 and 10 dpf) and larvae (15 dpf) from F. heteroclitus populations inhabiting the New Bedford Harbor, Massachusetts (NBH) Superfund site (PCB-resistant) and a reference site, Scorton Creek, Massachusetts (SC; PCB-sensitive). Analysis using a 7,000-gene cDNA array revealed striking differences in responsiveness to PCB-126 between the populations; the differences occur at all three stages examined. There was a sizeable set of PCB-responsive genes in the sensitive SC population, a much smaller set of PCB-responsive genes in NBH fish, and few similarities in PCB-responsive genes between the two populations. Most of the array results were confirmed, and additional PCB-regulated genes identified, by RNA-Seq (deep pyrosequencing). The results suggest that NBH fish possess a gene regulatory defect that is not specific to one target gene such as CYP1A but rather lies in a regulatory pathway that controls the transcriptional response of multiple genes to PCB exposure. The results are consistent with genome-wide disruption of AHR-dependent signaling in NBH fish.This work was supported in part by National Institutes of Health grants P42ES007381 (Superfund Basic Research Program at Boston University) and by a grant from the WHOI Ocean Life Institute

PU.1 opposes IL-7-dependent proliferation of developing b cells with involvement of the direct target gene bruton tyrosine kinase

Deletion of genes encoding the E26 transformation-specific transcription factors PU.1 and Spi-B in B cells (CD19-CreΔPB mice) leads to impaired B cell development, followed by B cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia at 100% incidence and with a median survival of 21 wk. However, little is known about the target genes that explain leukemogenesis in these mice. In this study we found that immature B cells were altered in frequency in the bone marrow of preleukemic CD19-CreΔPB mice. Enriched pro-B cells from CD19-CreDPB mice induced disease upon transplantation, suggesting that these were leukemia-initiating cells. Bone marrow cells from preleukemic CD19-CreΔPB mice had increased responsiveness to IL-7 and could proliferate indefinitely in response to this cytokine. Bruton tyrosine kinase (BTK), a negative regulator of IL-7 signaling, was reduced in preleukemic and leukemic CD19-CreΔPB cells compared with controls. Induction of PU.1 expression in cultured CD19-CreΔPB pro-B cell lines induced Btk expression, followed by reduced STAT5 phosphorylation and early apoptosis. PU.1 and Spi-B regulated Btk directly as shown by chromatin immunoprecipitation analysis. Ectopic expression of BTK was sufficient to induce apoptosis in cultured pro-B cells. In summary, these results suggest that PU.1 and Spi-B activate Btk to oppose IL-7 responsiveness in developing B cells

Intrusion-Tolerant Middleware: the MAFTIA approach

The pervasive interconnection of systems all over the world has given computer services a significant socio-economic value, which can be affected both by accidental faults and by malicious activity. It would be appealing to address both problems in a seamless manner, through a common approach to security and dependability. This is the proposal of intrusion tolerance, where it is assumed that systems remain to some extent faulty and/or vulnerable and subject to attacks that can be successful, the idea being to ensure that the overall system nevertheless remains secure and operational. In this paper, we report some of the advances made in the European project MAFTIA, namely in what concerns a basis of concepts unifying security and dependability, and a modular and versatile architecture, featuring several intrusion-tolerant middleware building blocks. We describe new architectural constructs and algorithmic strategies, such as: the use of trusted components at several levels of abstraction; new randomization techniques; new replica control and access control algorithms. The paper concludes by exemplifying the construction of intrusion-tolerant applications on the MAFTIA middleware, through a transaction support servic

An Electrochemical Study of Frustrated Lewis Pairs: A Metal-free Route to Hydrogen Oxidation

[Image: see text] Frustrated Lewis pairs have found many applications in the heterolytic activation of H(2) and subsequent hydrogenation of small molecules through delivery of the resulting proton and hydride equivalents. Herein, we describe how H(2) can be preactivated using classical frustrated Lewis pair chemistry and combined with in situ nonaqueous electrochemical oxidation of the resulting borohydride. Our approach allows hydrogen to be cleanly converted into two protons and two electrons in situ, and reduces the potential (the required energetic driving force) for nonaqueous H(2) oxidation by 610 mV (117.7 kJ mol(–1)). This significant energy reduction opens routes to the development of nonaqueous hydrogen energy technology

Rucaparib maintenance treatment for recurrent ovarian carcinoma after response to platinum therapy (ARIEL3): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial

Background: Rucaparib, a poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor, has anticancer activity in recurrent ovarian carcinoma harbouring a BRCA mutation or high percentage of genome-wide loss of heterozygosity. In this trial we assessed rucaparib versus placebo after response to second-line or later platinum-based chemotherapy in patients with high-grade, recurrent, platinum-sensitive ovarian carcinoma. Methods: In this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial, we recruited patients from 87 hospitals and cancer centres across 11 countries. Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older, had a platinum-sensitive, high-grade serous or endometrioid ovarian, primary peritoneal, or fallopian tube carcinoma, had received at least two previous platinum-based chemotherapy regimens, had achieved complete or partial response to their last platinum-based regimen, had a cancer antigen 125 concentration of less than the upper limit of normal, had a performance status of 0–1, and had adequate organ function. Patients were ineligible if they had symptomatic or untreated central nervous system metastases, had received anticancer therapy 14 days or fewer before starting the study, or had received previous treatment with a poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor. We randomly allocated patients 2:1 to receive oral rucaparib 600 mg twice daily or placebo in 28 day cycles using a computer-generated sequence (block size of six, stratified by homologous recombination repair gene mutation status, progression-free interval after the penultimate platinum-based regimen, and best response to the most recent platinum-based regimen). Patients, investigators, site staff, assessors, and the funder were masked to assignments. The primary outcome was investigator-assessed progression-free survival evaluated with use of an ordered step-down procedure for three nested cohorts: patients with BRCA mutations (carcinoma associated with deleterious germline or somatic BRCA mutations), patients with homologous recombination deficiencies (BRCA mutant or BRCA wild-type and high loss of heterozygosity), and the intention-to-treat population, assessed at screening and every 12 weeks thereafter. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01968213; enrolment is complete. Findings: Between April 7, 2014, and July 19, 2016, we randomly allocated 564 patients: 375 (66%) to rucaparib and 189 (34%) to placebo. Median progression-free survival in patients with a BRCA-mutant carcinoma was 16·6 months (95% CI 13·4–22·9; 130 [35%] patients) in the rucaparib group versus 5·4 months (3·4–6·7; 66 [35%] patients) in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·23 [95% CI 0·16–0·34]; p<0·0001). In patients with a homologous recombination deficient carcinoma (236 [63%] vs 118 [62%]), it was 13·6 months (10·9–16·2) versus 5·4 months (5·1–5·6; 0·32 [0·24–0·42]; p<0·0001). In the intention-to-treat population, it was 10·8 months (8·3–11·4) versus 5·4 months (5·3–5·5; 0·36 [0·30–0·45]; p<0·0001). Treatment-emergent adverse events of grade 3 or higher in the safety population (372 [99%] patients in the rucaparib group vs 189 [100%] in the placebo group) were reported in 209 (56%) patients in the rucaparib group versus 28 (15%) in the placebo group, the most common of which were anaemia or decreased haemoglobin concentration (70 [19%] vs one [1%]) and increased alanine or aspartate aminotransferase concentration (39 [10%] vs none). Interpretation: Across all primary analysis groups, rucaparib significantly improved progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer who had achieved a response to platinum-based chemotherapy. ARIEL3 provides further evidence that use of a poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor in the maintenance treatment setting versus placebo could be considered a new standard of care for women with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer following a complete or partial response to second-line or later platinum-based chemotherapy. Funding: Clovis Oncology

Distortions of Subjective Time Perception Within and Across Senses

Background: The ability to estimate the passage of time is of fundamental importance for perceptual and cognitive processes. One experience of time is the perception of duration, which is not isomorphic to physical duration and can be distorted by a number of factors. Yet, the critical features generating these perceptual shifts in subjective duration are not understood. Methodology/Findings: We used prospective duration judgments within and across sensory modalities to examine the effect of stimulus predictability and feature change on the perception of duration. First, we found robust distortions of perceived duration in auditory, visual and auditory-visual presentations despite the predictability of the feature changes in the stimuli. For example, a looming disc embedded in a series of steady discs led to time dilation, whereas a steady disc embedded in a series of looming discs led to time compression. Second, we addressed whether visual (auditory) inputs could alter the perception of duration of auditory (visual) inputs. When participants were presented with incongruent audio-visual stimuli, the perceived duration of auditory events could be shortened or lengthened by the presence of conflicting visual information; however, the perceived duration of visual events was seldom distorted by the presence of auditory information and was never perceived shorter than their actual durations. Conclusions/Significance: These results support the existence of multisensory interactions in the perception of duration and, importantly, suggest that vision can modify auditory temporal perception in a pure timing task. Insofar as distortions in subjective duration can neither be accounted for by the unpredictability of an auditory, visual or auditory-visual event, we propose that it is the intrinsic features of the stimulus that critically affect subjective time distortions

A phase II study of cell cycle inhibitor UCN-01 in patients with metastatic melanoma: a California Cancer Consortium trial

Background Genetic abnormalities in cell cycle control are common in malignant melanoma. UCN-01 (7-hydroxystaurosporine) is an investigational agent that exhibits antitumor activity by perturbing the cancer cell cycle. A patient with advanced melanoma experienced a partial response in a phase I trial of single agent UCN-01. We sought to determine the activity of UCN-01 against refractory metastatic melanoma in a phase II study. Patients and methods Patients with advanced melanoma received UCN-01 at 90 mg/m2 over 3 h on cycle 1, reduced to 45 mg/m2 over 3 h for subsequent cycles, every 21 days. Primary endpoint was tumor response. Secondary endpoints included progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). A two-stage (17 + 16), single arm phase II design was employed. A true response rate of ≥20% (i.e., at least one responder in the first stage, or at least four responders overall) was to be considered promising for further development of UCN-01 in this setting. Results Seventeen patients were accrued in the first stage. One patient was inevaluable for response. Four (24%) patients had stable disease, and 12 (71%) had disease progression. As there were no responders in the first stage, the study was closed to further accrual. Median PFS was 1.3 months (95% CI, 1.2–3.0) while median OS was 7.3 months (95% CI, 3.4–18.4). One-year and two year OS rates were 41% and 12%, respectively. A median of two cycles were delivered (range, 1–18). Grade 3 treatment-related toxicities include hyperglycemia (N = 2), fatigue (N = 1), and diarrhea (N = 1). One patient experienced grade 4 creatinine elevation and grade 4 anemia possibly due to UCN-01. No dose modification was required as these patients had disease progression. Conclusion Although well tolerated, UCN-01 as a single agent did not have sufficient clinical activity to warrant further study in refractory melanoma