Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event

In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase, and form a considerable risk of high-impact precipitation extremes. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a future weather scenario. The first method uses an observation-based non-linear relation between the hourly-observed summer precipitation and the antecedent dew-point temperature (the Pi–Td relation). The second method simulates the same event by using the convective-permitting numerical weather model (NWP) model HARMONIE, for both present-day and future warmer conditions. The third method is similar to the first method, but applies a simple linear delta transformation to the historic data by using indicators from The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'14 climate scenarios. A comparison of the three methods shows comparable intensity changes, ranging from below the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling to a 3 times CC increase per degree of warming. In the NWP model, the position of the events is somewhat different; due to small wind and convection changes, the intensity changes somewhat differ with time, but the total spatial area covered by heavy precipitation does not change with the temperature increase. The Pi–Td method is simple and time efficient compared to numerical models. The outcome can be used directly for hydrological and climatological studies and for impact analysis, such as flood-risk assessments.</p

Self-Assembly of Supramolecular Triblock Copolymer Complexes

Four different poly(tert-butoxystyrene)-b-polystyrene-b-poly(4-vinylpyridine) (PtBOS-b-PS-b-P4VP) linear triblock copolymers, with the P4VP weight fraction varying from 0.08 to 0.39, were synthesized via sequential anionic polymerization. The values of the unknown interaction parameters between styrene and tert-butoxystyrene and between tert-butoxystyrene and 4-vinylpyridine were determined from random copolymer blend miscibility studies and found to satisfy 0.031<χS,tBOS<0.034 and 0.39<χ4VP,tBOS<0.43, the latter being slightly larger than the known 0.30<χS,4VP≤0.35 value range. All triblock copolymers synthesized adopted a P4VP/PS core/shell cylindrical self-assembled morphology. From these four triblock copolymers supramolecular complexes were prepared by hydrogen bonding a stoichiometric amount of pentadecylphenol (PDP) to the P4VP blocks. Three of these complexes formed a triple lamellar ordered state with additional short length scale ordering inside the P4VP(PDP) layers. The self-assembled state of the supramolecular complex based on the triblock copolymer with the largest fraction of P4VP consisted of alternating layers of PtBOS and P4VP(PDP) layers with PS cylinders inside the latter layers. The difference in morphology between the triblock copolymers and the supramolecular complexes is due to two effects: (i) a change in effective composition and, (ii) a reduction in interfacial tension between the PS and P4VP containing domains. The small angle X-ray scattering patterns of the supramolecules systems are very temperature sensitive. A striking feature is the disappearance of the first order scattering peak of the triple lamellar state in certain temperature intervals, while the higher order peaks (including the third order) remain. This is argued to be due to the thermal sensitivity of the hydrogen bonding and thus directly related to the very nature of these systems.

Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk

This study provides a literature-based comparative assessment of uncertainties and biases in global to world-regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risks, considering mean and extreme sea-level hazards, the propagation of these into the floodplain, people and coastal assets exposed, and their vulnerability. Globally, by far the largest bias is introduced by not considering human adaptation, which can lead to an overestimation of coastal flood risk in 2100 by up to factor 1300. But even when considering adaptation, uncertainties in how coastal societies will adapt to sea-level rise dominate with a factor of up to 27 all other uncertainties. Other large uncertainties that have been quantified globally are associated with socio-economic development (factors 2.3–5.8), digital elevation data (factors 1.2–3.8), ice sheet models (factor 1.6–3.8) and greenhouse gas emissions (factors 1.6–2.1). Local uncertainties that stand out but have not been quantified globally, relate to depth-damage functions, defense failure mechanisms, surge and wave heights in areas affected by tropical cyclones (in particular for large return periods), as well as nearshore interactions between mean sea-levels, storm surges, tides and waves. Advancing the state-of-the-art requires analyzing and reporting more comprehensively on underlying uncertainties, including those in data, methods and adaptation scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties in digital elevation, coastal protection levels and depth-damage functions would be best reduced through open community-based efforts, in which many scholars work together in collecting and validating these data

Baseline autoantibody profile in rheumatoid arthritis is associated with early treatment response but not long-term outcomes

Transplantation and autoimmunit

Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improves estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: a multi-model validation study

Human activities have a profound influence on river discharge, hydrological extremes, and water-related hazards. In this study, we compare the results of five state-of-the-art global hydrological models (GHMs) with observations to examine the role of human impact parameterizations (HIP) in the simulation of the mean, high, and low flows. The analysis is performed for 471 gauging stations across the globe and for the period 1971-2010. We find that the inclusion of HIP improves the performance of GHMs, both in managed and near-natural catchments. For near-natural catchments, the improvement in performance results from improvements in incoming discharges from upstream managed catchments. This finding is robust across GHMs, although the level of improvement and reasons for improvement vary greatly by GHM. The inclusion of HIP leads to a significant decrease in the bias of long-term mean monthly discharge in 36-73% of the studied catchments, and an improvement in modelled hydrological variability in 31-74% of the studied catchments. Including HIP in the GHMs also leads to an improvement in the simulation of hydrological extremes, compared to when HIP is excluded. Whilst the inclusion of HIP leads to decreases in simulated high-flows, it can lead to either increases or decreases in low-flows. This is due to the relative importance of the timing of return flows and reservoir operations and their associated uncertainties. Even with the inclusion of HIP, we find that model performance still not optimal. This highlights the need for further research linking the human management and hydrological domains, especially in those areas with a dominant human impact. The large variation in performance between GHMs, regions, and performance indicators, calls for a careful selection of GHMs, model components, and evaluation metrics in future model applications

Submicron Structures Technology and Research

Contains table of contents for Part I, table of contents for Section 1 and reports on fourteen research projects.Joint Services Electronics Program (Contract DAAL03-86-K-0002)Joint Services Electronics Program (Contract DAAL03-89-C-0001)National Science Foundation (Grant ECS-87-09806)Semiconductor Research Corporation (Contract 87-SP-080)Hampshire Instruments CorporationNational Science Foundation (Grant ECS-85-03443)U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientific Research (Grant AFOSR-88-0304)National Science Foundation (Grant ECS-85-06565)X-Opt., IncorporatedU.S. Air Force - Office of Scientific Research (Grant AFOSR-85-0154)National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NGL22-009-683)KMS Fusion, Incorporate

Submicron Structures Technology and Research

Contains table of contents for Part I, table of contents for Section 1 and reports on thirteen research projects.Joint Services Electronics Program Contract DAAL03-89-C-0001National Science Foundation Grant ECS 87-09806Semiconductor Research Corporation Contract 87-SP-080Hampshire Instruments CorporationNational Science Foundation Grant ECS-85-03443U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientific Research Grant AFOSR-88-0304U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientific Research Grant AFOSR-85-0154X-Opt., IncorporatedNational Aeronautics and Space Administration Contract NAS8-36748AT&T Bell Laboratorie

The undebated issue of justice: silent discourses in Dutch flood risk management

Flood risk for all types of flooding is projected to increase based on climate change projections and increases in damage potential. These challenges are likely to aggravate issues of justice in flood risk management (henceforth FRM). Based on a discursive-institutionalist perspective, this paper explores justice in Dutch FRM: how do institutions allocate the responsibilities and costs for FRM for different types of flooding? What are the underlying conceptions of justice? What are the future challenges with regard to climate change? The research revealed that a dichotomy is visible in the Dutch approach to FRM: despite an abundance of rules, regulations and resources spent, flood risk or its management, are only marginally discussed in terms of justice. Despite that the current institutional arrangement has material outcomes that treat particular groups of citizens differently, depending on the type of flooding they are prone to, area they live in (unembanked/embanked) or category of user (e.g. household, industry, farmer). The paper argues that the debate on justice will (re)emerge, since the differences in distributional outcomes are likely to become increasingly uneven as a result of increasing flood risk. The Netherlands should be prepared for this debate by generating the relevant facts and figures. An inclusive debate on the distribution of burdens of FRM could contribute to more effective and legitimate FRM

Recurrent governance challenges in the implementation and alignment of flood risk management strategies: a review

In Europe increasing flood risks challenge societies to diversify their Flood Risk Management Strategies (FRMSs). Such a diversification implies that actors not only focus on flood defence, but also and simultaneously on flood risk prevention, mitigation, preparation and recovery. There is much literature on the implementation of specific strategies and measures as well as on flood risk governance more generally. What is lacking, though, is a clear overview of the complex set of governance challenges which may result from a diversification and alignment of FRM strategies. This paper aims to address this knowledge gap. It elaborates on potential processes and mechanisms for coordinating the activities and capacities of actors that are involved on different levels and in different sectors of flood risk governance, both concerning the implementation of individual strategies and the coordination of the overall set of strategies. It identifies eight overall coordination mechanisms that have proven to be useful in this respect