Friction in mid-latitude cyclones: an Ekman-PV mechanism

The mechanism by which the atmospheric boundary layer reduces the intensity of mid-latitude cyclones is investigated. It is demonstrated that two alternative theories, Ekman pumping and the baroclinic potential vorticity (PV) mechanism, in fact act in union to maximize the spin-down. Ekman pumping aids the ventilation of PV from the boundary layer, and shapes the resulting PV anomaly into one of increased static stability. PV inversion techniques are used to demonstrate how this anomaly reduces the coupling between the upper- and lower-levels within the cyclone, reducing the growth rate

Climatology of size, shape and intensity of precipitation features over Great Britain and Ireland

A climatology of precipitation features (or objects) from the Great Britain and Ireland radar-derived precipitation mosaic from 2006–2015 is constructed, with features defined as contiguous areas of nonzero precipitation rates. Over the ten years, there are 54,811,747 non-unique precipitating features over 100 km2 in area, with a median precipitation-feature area of 249 km2, median major axis length of 29.2 km, median aspect ratio of 2.0, median feature mean precipitation rate of 0.49 mm h-1, and median feature maximum precipitation rate of 2.4 mm h-1. Small-scale precipitating systems are most common, but larger systems exceeding 10,000 km2 contribute close to 70% of the annual precipitation across the study region. Precipitation feature characteristics are sensitive to changes in annual and diurnal environment, with feature intensities peaking during the afternoon in summer and the largest precipitation features occurring during winter. Precipitation intensities less than 5 mm h-1 comprise 97.3% of all precipitation occurrence and contribute 83.6% of the total precipitation over land. Banded-precipitation features (defined as precipitation features with aspect ratio at least 3:1 and major axis length at least 100 km) comprise 3% of all precipitation features by occurrence, but contribute 23.7% of the total precipitation. Mesoscale banded features (defined as banded-precipitation features with major axis length at least 100 km and total area not exceeding 10,000 km2) and mesoscale convective banded features (defined as banded-precipitation features with at least 100 km2 of precipitation rates exceeding 10 mm h-1) are most prevalent in southwestern England with mesoscale convective banded features contributing up to 2% of precipitation

Quantifying the recent expansion of native invasive rush species in a UK upland environment

Rushes, such as soft rush (Juncus effusus L.), hard rush (Juncus inflexus L.) and compact rush (Juncus conglomeratus L.) have become problem species within upland grasslands across the UK and the coastal grasslands of western Norway. Indeed, being largely unpalatable to livestock and having a vigorous reproductive ecology means that they can rapidly come to dominate swards. However, rush dominance results in a reduction in grassland biodiversity and farm productivity. Anecdotal evidence from the UK suggests that rush cover within marginal upland grasslands has increased considerably in recent decades. Yet, there is currently no published evidence to support this observation. Here, we use recent and historical Google Earth imagery to measure changes in rush frequency over a 13-year period within four survey years: 2005, 2009, 2015 and 2018. During each survey year, we quantified rush presence or absence using a series of quadrats located within 300 upland grassland plots in the West Pennine Moors, UK. Data were analysed in two stages, first, by calculating mean rush frequencies per sample year using all the available plot-year combinations (the full dataset), and second by examining 25 differences in rush frequency using only the plots for which rush frequency data were available in every sample year (the continuous dataset). The full dataset indicated that rush frequency has increased by 82% between 2005 and 2018. Similarly, the continuous dataset suggested that rush frequency has increased by 174% over the same period, with the increases in frequency being statistically significant (P<0.05) between 2005-2018 and 2009-2018. We discuss the potential drivers of rush expansion in the West Pennine Moors, the ecological and agronomic implications of grassland rush infestations, and priorities for future research

Applying the HCVF toolkit to assess the conservation value of Gunung Singai, Sarawak, East Malaysia

The HCVF Toolkit for Malaysia was primarily developed to help forest managers comply with Principle 9 in both the Forest Stewardship Council and the Malaysian Criteria and Indicators for Forest Management Certification. These are standard adopted by the National Steering Committee for certification of natural forests in Malaysia. Here, we use it to assess the conservation value of Gunung Singai, an isolated mountain massif in western Sarawak. Based on Criteria HCV 1.2 (Threatened and Endangered Species), HCV1.3 (Endemism), HCV4.1 (Watershed Protection), HCV4.2 (Erosion Control), HCV5 (Basic Needs of Local Communities) and HCV6 (Cultural Identity of Local Communities) Gunung Singai is found to have high ecological and cultural values and warrant management and conservation

A cycle of brain gain, waste and drain - a qualitative study of non-EU migrant doctors in Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Ireland is heavily reliant on non-EU migrant health workers to staff its health system. Shortages of locally trained health workers and policies which facilitate health worker migration have contributed to this trend. This paper provides insight into the experiences of non-EU migrant doctors in the Irish health workforce. METHOD: In-depth interviews were conducted with 37 non-EU migrant doctors in Ireland in 2011/2012. RESULTS: Respondents believed they had been recruited to fill junior hospital doctor 'service' posts. These posts are unpopular with locally trained doctors due to the limited career progression they provide. Respondents felt that their hopes for career progression and postgraduate training in Ireland had gone unrealised and that they were becoming de-skilled. As a result, most respondents were actively considering onward migration from Ireland. DISCUSSION & CONCLUSIONS: Failure to align the expectations of non-EU migrant doctors with the requirements of the health system has resulted in considerable frustration and a cycle of brain gain, waste and drain. The underlying reasons for high mobility into and out of the Irish medical workforce must be addressed if this cycle is to be broken. The heavy reliance on non-EU migrant doctors to staff the medical workforce has distracted from the underlying workforce challenges facing the Irish medical workforce

A water-based training program that include perturbation exercises to improve stepping responses in older adults: study protocol for a randomized controlled cross-over trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Gait and balance impairments may increase the risk of falls, the leading cause of accidental death in the elderly population. Fall-related injuries constitute a serious public health problem associated with high costs for society as well as human suffering. A rapid step is the most important protective postural strategy, acting to recover equilibrium and prevent a fall from initiating. It can arise from large perturbations, but also frequently as a consequence of volitional movements. We propose to use a novel water-based training program which includes specific perturbation exercises that will target the stepping responses that could potentially have a profound effect in reducing risk of falling. We describe the water-based balance training program and a study protocol to evaluate its efficacy (Trial registration number #NCT00708136).</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The proposed water-based training program involves use of unpredictable, multi-directional perturbations in a group setting to evoke compensatory and volitional stepping responses. Perturbations are made by pushing slightly the subjects and by water turbulence, in 24 training sessions conducted over 12 weeks. Concurrent cognitive tasks during movement tasks are included. Principles of physical training and exercise including awareness, continuity, motivation, overload, periodicity, progression and specificity were used in the development of this novel program. Specific goals are to increase the speed of stepping responses and improve the postural control mechanism and physical functioning. A prospective, randomized, cross-over trial with concealed allocation, assessor blinding and intention-to-treat analysis will be performed to evaluate the efficacy of the water-based training program. A total of 36 community-dwelling adults (age 65–88) with no recent history of instability or falling will be assigned to either the perturbation-based training or a control group (no training). Voluntary step reaction times and postural stability using stabiliogram diffusion analysis will be tested before and after the 12 weeks of training.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study will determine whether a water-based balance training program that includes perturbation exercises, in a group setting, can improve speed of voluntary stepping responses and improve balance control. Results will help guide the development of more cost-effective interventions that can prevent the occurrence of falls in the elderly.</p

Zur Quantifizierung der Risikoprämien deutscher Versicherungsaktien im Kontext eines Multifaktorenmodells

Vorgestellt wird eine empirische Studie, welche den Zusammenhang zwischen Rendite und Risiko für ein Sample deutscher Versicherungsaktien im Zeitraum 1975-1998 untersucht. Als Methode wurde ein Multifaktorenmodell mit makroökonomischen Faktoren verwendet. Je nach Untersuchungszeitraum beläuft sich der Anteil der erklärten Varianz auf 9,29% bis 13,62%. Es konnte eine signifikanter negativer Einfluß zwischen der Veränderung des allgemeinen Zinsniveaus und den Risikoprämien von Versicherungsaktien identifiziert werden. Weiterhin ist Wechselkurses der DM zum US-Dollar signifikant

Summary and Recommendations from Working Group 1: model uncertainty representations in convection-permitting / shorter lead-time / limited-area ensembles

WG3 discussed both the pros and cons of existing schemes as Working group 1 considered the treatment of model uncertainty (MU) in high-resolution ensembles, at grid spacings of order 1-5 km. These systems are often run for regional weather forecasting, perhaps over a single country, and for lead times of up to 5 days. Looking ahead, ECMWF’s strategy seeks to deliver global medium-range ensemble forecasts with 3-4 km grid spacings by 2030. It is questionable for what grid spacing we should dispense with a deep convection parameterization, but it will be either switched off or damped in these systems, such that deep convection can be assumed to be dominated by explicit motions. One of the problems with limited-area ensemble systems at this scale is that spread depends not only on the modelling system itself but also on the variability inherited from the large-scale boundary conditions. There is often thought to be a lack of spread in our high-resolution EPS (ensemble prediction systems), but this could reflect a lack of diversity on larger scales. The relative importance of lateral-boundary diversity and the model uncertainty mechanisms is regime dependent. The lateral boundaries will generally be more important in midlatitude winter but less so for summertime convection in relatively weak synoptic flow