Mathematical modeling the age dependence of Epstein-Barr virus associated infectious mononucleosis

ManuscriptMost people get Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection at young age and are asymptomatic. Primary EBV infection in adolescents and young adults however, often leads to infectious mononucleosis (IM) with symptoms including fever, fatigue, and sore throat that can persist for months. Expansion in the number of CD8+ T cells, especially against EBV lytic proteins, are the main cause of these symptoms. We propose a mathematical model for the regulation of EBV infection within a host to address the dependence of IM on age. This model tracks the number of virus, infected B cell and epithelial cell, and CD8+ T-cell responses to the infection. We use this model to investigate three hypotheses for the high incidence of IM in teenagers and young adults: saliva and antibody eff ects that increase with age, high cross-reactive T-cell responses, and a high initial viral load. The model supports the first two of these hypotheses, and suggests that variation in host antibody responses and the complexity of the pre-existing cross-reactive T cell repertoire, both of which depend on age, may play important roles in the etiology of IM

Mathematical modeling the age dependence of Epstein-Barr virus associated infectious mononucleosis

pre-printMost people get Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection at young age and are asymptomatic. Pri-mary EBV infection in adolescents and young adults however, often leads to infectious mononucleosis (IM) with symptoms including fever, fatigue, and sore throat that can persist for months. Expansion in the number of CD8+ T cells, especially against EBV lytic proteins, are the main cause of these symptoms. We propose a mathematical model for the regulation of EBV infection within a host to address the dependence of IM on age. This model tracks the number of virus, infected B cell and epithelial cell, and CD8+ T-cell responses to the infection. We use this model to investigate three hypotheses for the high incidence of IM in teenagers and young adults: saliva and antibody effects that increase with age, high cross-reactive T-cell responses, and a high initial viral load. The model supports the first two of these hypotheses, and suggests that variation in host antibody responses and the complexity of the pre-existing cross-reactive T cell repertoire, both of which depend on age, may play important roles in the etiology of IM

Alternating host cell tropism shapes the persistence, evolution and coexistence of Epstein-Barr virus infections in human

ManuscriptEpstein-Barr virus (EBV) infects and can persist in a majority of people worldwide. Within an infected host, EBV targets two major cell types, B cells and epithelial cells, and viruses emerging from one cell type preferentially infect the other. We use mathematical models to understand why EBV infects epithelial cells when B cells serve as a stable refuge for the virus and how switching between infecting each cell type affects virus persistence and shedding. We propose a mathematical model to describe the regulation of EBV infection within a host. This model is used to study the effects of parameter values on optimal viral strategies for transmission, persistence, and intrahost competition. Most often, the optimal strategy to maximize transmission is for viruses to infect epithelial cells, but the optimal strategy for maximizing intrahost competition is for viruses to mainly infect B cells. Applying the results of the within-host model, we derive a model of EBV dynamics in a homogeneous population of hosts that includes superinfection. We use this model to study the conditions necessary for invasion and coexistence of various viral strategies at the population level. When the importance of intrahost competition is weak, we show that coexistence of diff erent strategies is possible

AML risk stratification models utilizing ELN-2017 guidelines and additional prognostic factors: a SWOG report.

Background: The recently updated European LeukemiaNet risk stratification guidelines combine cytogenetic abnormalities and genetic mutations to provide the means to triage patients with acute myeloid leukemia for optimal therapies. Despite the identification of many prognostic factors, relatively few have made their way into clinical practice. Methods: In order to assess and improve the performance of the European LeukemiaNet guidelines, we developed novel prognostic models using the biomarkers from the guidelines, age, performance status and select transcript biomarkers. The models were developed separately for mononuclear cells and viable leukemic blasts from previously untreated acute myeloid leukemia patients (discovery cohort, Results: Models using European LeukemiaNet guidelines were significantly associated with clinical outcomes and, therefore, utilized as a baseline for comparisons. Models incorporating age and expression of select transcripts with biomarkers from European LeukemiaNet guidelines demonstrated higher area under the curve and C-statistics but did not show a substantial improvement in performance in the validation cohort. Subset analyses demonstrated that models using only the European LeukemiaNet guidelines were a better fit for younger patients (age \u3c 55) than for older patients. Models integrating age and European LeukemiaNet guidelines visually showed more separation between risk groups in older patients. Models excluding results for Conclusions: While European LeukemiaNet guidelines remain a critical tool for triaging patients with acute myeloid leukemia, the findings illustrate the need for additional prognostic factors, including age, to improve risk stratification

Search of the Orion spur for continuous gravitational waves using a loosely coherent algorithm on data from LIGO interferometers

We report results of a wideband search for periodic gravitational waves from isolated neutron stars within the Orion spur towards both the inner and outer regions of our Galaxy. As gravitational waves interact very weakly with matter, the search is unimpeded by dust and concentrations of stars. One search disk (A) is 6.87° in diameter and centered on 20h10m54.71s+33°33′25.29′′, and the other (B) is 7.45° in diameter and centered on 8h35m20.61s-46°49′25.151′′. We explored the frequency range of 50-1500 Hz and frequency derivative from 0 to -5×10-9 Hz/s. A multistage, loosely coherent search program allowed probing more deeply than before in these two regions, while increasing coherence length with every stage. Rigorous follow-up parameters have winnowed the initial coincidence set to only 70 candidates, to be examined manually. None of those 70 candidates proved to be consistent with an isolated gravitational-wave emitter, and 95% confidence level upper limits were placed on continuous-wave strain amplitudes. Near 169 Hz we achieve our lowest 95% C.L. upper limit on the worst-case linearly polarized strain amplitude h0 of 6.3×10-25, while at the high end of our frequency range we achieve a worst-case upper limit of 3.4×10-24 for all polarizations and sky locations. © 2016 American Physical Society

Lawson criterion for ignition exceeded in an inertial fusion experiment

For more than half a century, researchers around the world have been engaged in attempts to achieve fusion ignition as a proof of principle of various fusion concepts. Following the Lawson criterion, an ignited plasma is one where the fusion heating power is high enough to overcome all the physical processes that cool the fusion plasma, creating a positive thermodynamic feedback loop with rapidly increasing temperature. In inertially confined fusion, ignition is a state where the fusion plasma can begin "burn propagation" into surrounding cold fuel, enabling the possibility of high energy gain. While "scientific breakeven" (i.e., unity target gain) has not yet been achieved (here target gain is 0.72, 1.37 MJ of fusion for 1.92 MJ of laser energy), this Letter reports the first controlled fusion experiment, using laser indirect drive, on the National Ignition Facility to produce capsule gain (here 5.8) and reach ignition by nine different formulations of the Lawson criterion

The population of merging compact binaries inferred using gravitational waves through GWTC-3

We report on the population properties of 76 compact binary mergers detected with gravitational waves below a false alarm rate of 1 per year through GWTC-3. The catalog contains three classes of binary mergers: BBH, BNS, and NSBH mergers. We infer the BNS merger rate to be between 10 $\rm{Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}}$ and 1700 $\rm{Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}}$ and the NSBH merger rate to be between 7.8 $\rm{Gpc^{-3}\, yr^{-1}}$ and 140 $\rm{Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}}$ , assuming a constant rate density versus comoving volume and taking the union of 90% credible intervals for methods used in this work. Accounting for the BBH merger rate to evolve with redshift, we find the BBH merger rate to be between 17.9 $\rm{Gpc^{-3}\, yr^{-1}}$ and 44 $\rm{Gpc^{-3}\, yr^{-1}}$ at a fiducial redshift (z=0.2). We obtain a broad neutron star mass distribution extending from $1.2^{+0.1}_{-0.2} M_\odot$ to $2.0^{+0.3}_{-0.3} M_\odot$. We can confidently identify a rapid decrease in merger rate versus component mass between neutron star-like masses and black-hole-like masses, but there is no evidence that the merger rate increases again before 10 $M_\odot$. We also find the BBH mass distribution has localized over- and under-densities relative to a power law distribution. While we continue to find the mass distribution of a binary's more massive component strongly decreases as a function of primary mass, we observe no evidence of a strongly suppressed merger rate above $\sim 60 M_\odot$. The rate of BBH mergers is observed to increase with redshift at a rate proportional to $(1+z)^{\kappa}$ with $\kappa = 2.9^{+1.7}_{-1.8}$ for $z\lesssim 1$. Observed black hole spins are small, with half of spin magnitudes below $\chi_i \simeq 0.25$. We observe evidence of negative aligned spins in the population, and an increase in spin magnitude for systems with more unequal mass ratio