Modeling the anchoring and performance of downhole equipment using an extended Gurson model

In oil and gas (O&G) exploration the well casing, in the form of a long steel tube, maintains the opening of the drilled well hole. Mechanical equipment is often inserted into the well for the purpose of well monitoring, pressure control and various operations. This downhole equipment may be mechanically connected to the pipe casing by the outward radial motion of anchoring teeth such that the inner wall casing is indented. The connection between the tool and the casing must support significant mechanical loads in the longitudinal (axial) direction of the casing, i.e. transverse to the direction of indentation, while minimizing the indentation depth in order to preserve the stiffness and strength of the casing. Consequently, a determination of the ultimate strength of the connection is of critical importance. Failure of this connection involves intense shear of the inner wall of the casing, akin to a machining operation. The critical load for axial slip can be determined experimentally or numerically (or by combination of both). In this study, detailed simulations are performed using the shear-extended GTN (Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman) model. The choice of model is motivated by the need to accurately the extensive plastic deformation associated with indentation as well as shear-dominated ductile failure on a sub-millimeter scale. The shear-extended GTN model requires a careful calibration of the model parameters by an accurate measurement of the material response. Accordingly, the casing steel was characterized by appropriate measurements under a range of stress states. The calibrated model was used to investigate an idealized two-dimensional representation of the anchoring problem, with a focus on the effect of indentation depth upon connection strength. Both the indentation of the casing inner wall by the anchoring teeth and the subsequent shear of the casing wall were simulated in detail to determine the load required to initiate and progress slip of the anchoring teeth. The results of these analyses show that the connection strength increases linearly with increasing indentation depth

Religion and HIV in Tanzania: Influence of Religious Beliefs on HIV stigma, Disclosure, and Treatment Attitudes.

Religion shapes everyday beliefs and activities, but few studies have examined its associations with attitudes about HIV. This exploratory study in Tanzania probed associations between religious beliefs and HIV stigma, disclosure, and attitudes toward antiretroviral (ARV) treatment. A self-administered survey was distributed to a convenience sample of parishioners (n = 438) attending Catholic, Lutheran, and Pentecostal churches in both urban and rural areas. The survey included questions about religious beliefs, opinions about HIV, and knowledge and attitudes about ARVs. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to assess how religion was associated with perceptions about HIV, HIV treatment, and people living with HIV/AIDS. Results indicate that shame-related HIV stigma is strongly associated with religious beliefs such as the belief that HIV is a punishment from God (p < 0.01) or that people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) have not followed the Word of God (p < 0.001). Most participants (84.2%) said that they would disclose their HIV status to their pastor or congregation if they became infected. Although the majority of respondents (80.8%) believed that prayer could cure HIV, almost all (93.7%) said that they would begin ARV treatment if they became HIV-infected. The multivariate analysis found that respondents' hypothetical willingness to begin ARV treatme was not significantly associated with the belief that prayer could cure HIV or with other religious factors. Refusal of ARV treatment was instead correlated with lack of secondary schooling and lack of knowledge about ARVs. The decision to start ARVs hinged primarily on education-level and knowledge about ARVs rather than on religious factors. Research results highlight the influence of religious beliefs on HIV-related stigma and willingness to disclose, and should help to inform HIV-education outreach for religious groups

Evidence from Individual Inference for High-Dimensional Coexistence: Long-Term Experiments on Recruitment Response

Background: For competing species to coexist, individuals must compete more with others of the same species than with those of other species. Ecologists search for tradeoffs in how species might partition the environment. The negative correlations among competing species that would be indicative of tradeoffs are rarely observed. A recent analysis showed that evidence for partitioning the environment is available when responses are disaggregated to the individual scale, in terms of the covariance structure of responses to environmental variation. That study did not relate that variation to the variables to which individuals were responding. To understand how this pattern of variation is related to niche variables, we analyzed responses to canopy gaps, long viewed as a key variable responsible for species coexistence. Methodology/Principal Findings: A longitudinal intervention analysis of individual responses to experimental canopy gaps with 12 yr of pre-treatment and 8 yr post-treatment responses showed that species-level responses are positively correlated – species that grow fast on average in the understory also grow fast on average in response to gap formation. In other words, there is no tradeoff. However, the joint distribution of individual responses to understory and gap showed a negative correlation – species having individuals that respond most to gaps when previously growing slowly also have individuals that respond least to gaps when previously growing rapidly (e.g., Morus rubra), and vice versa (e.g., Quercus prinus). Conclusions/Significance: Because competition occurs at the individual scale, not the species scale, aggregated speciesleve

A Novel Mouse Synaptonemal Complex Protein Is Essential for Loading of Central Element Proteins, Recombination, and Fertility

The synaptonemal complex (SC) is a proteinaceous, meiosis-specific structure that is highly conserved in evolution. During meiosis, the SC mediates synapsis of homologous chromosomes. It is essential for proper recombination and segregation of homologous chromosomes, and therefore for genome haploidization. Mutations in human SC genes can cause infertility. In order to gain a better understanding of the process of SC assembly in a model system that would be relevant for humans, we are investigating meiosis in mice. Here, we report on a newly identified component of the murine SC, which we named SYCE3. SYCE3 is strongly conserved among mammals and localizes to the central element (CE) of the SC. By generating a Syce3 knockout mouse, we found that SYCE3 is required for fertility in both sexes. Loss of SYCE3 blocks synapsis initiation and results in meiotic arrest. In the absence of SYCE3, initiation of meiotic recombination appears to be normal, but its progression is severely impaired resulting in complete absence of MLH1 foci, which are presumed markers of crossovers in wild-type meiocytes. In the process of SC assembly, SYCE3 is required downstream of transverse filament protein SYCP1, but upstream of the other previously described CE–specific proteins. We conclude that SYCE3 enables chromosome loading of the other CE–specific proteins, which in turn would promote synapsis between homologous chromosomes

Alien Invasive Slider Turtle in Unpredicted Habitat: A Matter of Niche Shift or of Predictors Studied?

BACKGROUND: Species Distribution Models (SDMs) aim on the characterization of a species' ecological niche and project it into geographic space. The result is a map of the species' potential distribution, which is, for instance, helpful to predict the capability of alien invasive species. With regard to alien invasive species, recently several authors observed a mismatch between potential distributions of native and invasive ranges derived from SDMs and, as an explanation, ecological niche shift during biological invasion has been suggested. We studied the physiologically well known Slider turtle from North America which today is widely distributed over the globe and address the issue of ecological niche shift versus choice of ecological predictors used for model building, i.e., by deriving SDMs using multiple sets of climatic predictor. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In one SDM, predictors were used aiming to mirror the physiological limits of the Slider turtle. It was compared to numerous other models based on various sets of ecological predictors or predictors aiming at comprehensiveness. The SDM focusing on the study species' physiological limits depicts the target species' worldwide potential distribution better than any of the other approaches. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that a natural history-driven understanding is crucial in developing statistical models of ecological niches (as SDMs) while "comprehensive" or "standard" sets of ecological predictors may be of limited use

Potential Geographic Distribution of Brown Marmorated Stink Bug Invasion (Halyomorpha halys)

BACKGROUND: The Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB), Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), native to Asia, is becoming an invasive species with a rapidly expanding range in North America and Europe. In the US, it is a household pest and also caused unprecedented damage to agriculture crops. Exploring its climatic limits and estimating its potential geographic distribution can provide critical information for management strategies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPALS: We used direct climate comparisons to explore the climatic niche occupied by native and invasive populations of BMSB. Ecological niche modelings based on the native range were used to anticipate the potential distribution of BMSB worldwide. Conversely, niche models based on the introduced range were used to locate the original invasive propagates in Asia. Areas with high invasion potential were identified by two niche modeling algorithms (i.e., Maxent and GARP). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Reduced dimensionality of environmental space improves native model transferability in the invade area. Projecting models from invasive population back to native distributional areas offers valuable information on the potential source regions of the invasive populations. Our models anticipated successfully the current disjunct distribution of BMSB in the US. The original propagates are hypothesized to have come from northern Japan or western Korea. High climate suitable areas at risk of invasion include latitudes between 30°-50° including northern Europe, northeastern North America, southern Australia and the North Island of New Zealand. Angola in Africa and Uruguay in South America also showed high climate suitability

Long-term species, sexual and individual variations in foraging strategies of fur seals revealed by stable isotopes in whiskers

Background: Individual variations in the use of the species niche are an important component of diversity in trophic interactions. A challenge in testing consistency of individual foraging strategy is the repeated collection of information on the same individuals. Methodology/Principal Findings: The foraging strategies of sympatric fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella and A. tropicalis) were examined using the stable isotope signature of serially sampled whiskers. Most whiskers exhibited synchronous delta C-13 and delta N-15 oscillations that correspond to the seal annual movements over the long term (up to 8 years). delta C-13 and delta N-15 values were spread over large ranges, with differences between species, sexes and individuals. The main segregating mechanism operates at the spatial scale. Most seals favored foraging in subantarctic waters (where the Crozet Islands are located) where they fed on myctophids. However, A. gazella dispersed in the Antarctic Zone and A. tropicalis more in the subtropics. Gender differences in annual time budget shape the seal movements. Males that do not perform any parental care exhibited large isotopic oscillations reflecting broad annual migrations, while isotopic values of females confined to a limited foraging range during lactation exhibited smaller changes. Limited inter-individual isotopic variations occurred in female seals and in male A. tropicalis. In contrast, male A. gazella showed large inter-individual variations, with some males migrating repeatedly to high-Antarctic waters where they fed on krill, thus meaning that individual specialization occurred over years. Conclusions/Significance: Whisker isotopic signature yields unique long-term information on individual behaviour that integrates the spatial, trophic and temporal dimensions of the ecological niche. The method allows depicting the entire realized niche of the species, including some of its less well-known components such as age-, sex-, individual- and migration-related changes. It highlights intrapopulation heterogeneity in foraging strategies that could have important implications for likely demographic responses to environmental variability

Global Change Could Amplify Fire Effects on Soil Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Background: Little is known about the combined impacts of global environmental changes and ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning, even though such combined impacts might play critical roles in shaping ecosystem processes that can in turn feed back to climate change, such as soil emissions of greenhouse gases.[br/] Methodology/Principal Findings: We took advantage of an accidental, low-severity wildfire that burned part of a long-term global change experiment to investigate the interactive effects of a fire disturbance and increases in CO(2) concentration, precipitation and nitrogen supply on soil nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions in a grassland ecosystem. We examined the responses of soil N(2)O emissions, as well as the responses of the two main microbial processes contributing to soil N(2)O production - nitrification and denitrification - and of their main drivers. We show that the fire disturbance greatly increased soil N(2)O emissions over a three-year period, and that elevated CO(2) and enhanced nitrogen supply amplified fire effects on soil N(2)O emissions: emissions increased by a factor of two with fire alone and by a factor of six under the combined influence of fire, elevated CO(2) and nitrogen. We also provide evidence that this response was caused by increased microbial denitrification, resulting from increased soil moisture and soil carbon and nitrogen availability in the burned and fertilized plots. [br/] Conclusions/Significance: Our results indicate that the combined effects of fire and global environmental changes can exceed their effects in isolation, thereby creating unexpected feedbacks to soil greenhouse gas emissions. These findings highlight the need to further explore the impacts of ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning in the context of global change if we wish to be able to model future soil greenhouse gas emissions with greater confidence

Pleistocene Climate, Phylogeny, and Climate Envelope Models: An Integrative Approach to Better Understand Species' Response to Climate Change

Mean annual temperature reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change increases at least 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the next 90 years. In context, a change in climate of 6°C is approximately the difference between the mean annual temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and our current warm interglacial. Species have been responding to changing climate throughout Earth's history and their previous biological responses can inform our expectations for future climate change. Here we synthesize geological evidence in the form of stable oxygen isotopes, general circulation paleoclimate models, species' evolutionary relatedness, and species' geographic distributions. We use the stable oxygen isotope record to develop a series of temporally high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the Middle Pleistocene to Recent, which we use to map ancestral climatic envelope reconstructions for North American rattlesnakes. A simple linear interpolation between current climate and a general circulation paleoclimate model of the LGM using stable oxygen isotope ratios provides good estimates of paleoclimate at other time periods. We use geologically informed rates of change derived from these reconstructions to predict magnitudes and rates of change in species' suitable habitat over the next century. Our approach to modeling the past suitable habitat of species is general and can be adopted by others. We use multiple lines of evidence of past climate (isotopes and climate models), phylogenetic topology (to correct the models for long-term changes in the suitable habitat of a species), and the fossil record, however sparse, to cross check the models. Our models indicate the annual rate of displacement in a clade of rattlesnakes over the next century will be 2 to 3 orders of magnitude greater (430-2,420 m/yr) than it has been on average for the past 320 ky (2.3 m/yr)