The Influence of Temperature on Spike Probability in Day-Ahead Power Prices

It is well known that day-ahead prices in power markets exhibit spikes. These spikes are sudden increases in the day-ahead price that occur because power production is not flexible enough to respond to demand and/or supply shocks in the short term. This paper focuses on how temperature influences the probability on a spike. The paper shows that the difference between the actual and expected temperature significantly influences the probability on a spike and that the impact of temperature on spike probability depends on the season

Regime Jumps in Electricity Prices

Electricity prices are known to be very volatile and subject to frequent jumps due to system breakdown, demand shocks, and inelastic supply. As many international electricity markets are in some state of deregulation, more and more participants in these markets are exposed to these stylised facts. Appropriate pricing, portfolio, and risk management models should incorporate these facts. Authors have introduced stochastic jump processes to deal with the jumps, but we argue and show that this specification might lead to problems with identifying the true mean-reversion within the process. Instead, we propose using a regime jump model that disentangles mean-reversion from jump behaviour. This model resembles more closely the true price path of electricity prices

Revisiting Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Switching Between UIP and the Random Walk

In this paper, we examine in which periods uncovered interest rate parity was likely to hold. Empirical research has shown mixed evidence on UIP. The main finding is that it doesn’t hold, although some researchers were not able to reject UIP in periods with large interest differentials or high volatility. In this paper, we introduce a switching regime framework in which we assume that the exchange rate can switch between a UIP regime and a random walk regime. Our empirical results provide evidence that exchange rate movements were consistent with UIP over some periods, but not all. Consistent with the existing literature we also show that in periods with large interest differentials or increased exchange rate volatility, the exchange rate is more likely to follow UIP

Regime jumps in electricity prices

Many countries are liberalizing their energy markets. Participants in these markets are exposed to market risk due to the characteristics of electricity price dynamics. Electricity prices are known to be mean-reverting very volatile and subject to frequent spikes. Models that describe the dynamics of electricity prices should incorporate these characteristics. In order to capture the price spikes, many researchers have introduced stochastic jump processes, but we argue and show that this specification might lead to potential problems with specifying the true amount of mean-reversion within the process. In this paper, we propose a regime-switching model that models price spikes separated from normal mean-reverting prices

Hourly Electricity Prices in Day-Ahead Markets

This paper focuses on the characteristics of hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets. In these markets, quotes for day-ahead delivery of electricity are submitted simultaneously for all hours in the next day. The same information set is used for quoting all hours of the day. The dynamics of hourly electricity prices does not behave as a time series process. Instead, these prices should be treated as a panel in which the prices of 24 cross-sectional hours vary from day to day. This paper introduces a panel model for hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets and examines their characteristics. The results show that hourly electricity prices exhibit hourly specific mean-reversion and that they oscillate around an hourly specific mean price level. Furthermore, a block structured cross-sectional correlation pattern between the hours is apparent

Being in Balance: Economic Efficiency in the Dutch Power Market

In this paper, we examine economic efficiency in the Dutch power market, an important pillar for successful creation of a competitive and non-discriminatory free power market. We examine historical time series of prices and volumes on the Dutch balancing market where energy companies are obliged to offer reserve capacity in order to offset power surpluses and deficits on the grid. We argue that these balancing prices and volumes are indicators for the level of economic efficiency. We find evidence that the level of economic efficiency has increased in the Dutch power market while the level of security of supply has maintained

Costs of power supply flexibility: the indirect impact of a Spanish policy change

The increase in the share of supply from intermittent power sources changes the demand for power from traditional power plants. The power system demands more volume flexibility from traditional plants. Our goal is to better understand the impact of a reduction of flexibility in power supply on the costs of volume adjustments. We define flexibility as the capacity with which nominated power plants can adjust their output to unexpected changed in residual demand. We exploit a policy change in Spain that affected the power market. The policy, implemented in 2010, aims to provide a stimulus for producing power with domèstic coal. The policy, in combination with a year with scant rainfall in the year after the policy was implemented, decreased the amount of flexibility in power supply and we use this to examine the effect of a change in flexibility on the costs of the power System. ..