Quantifying the energy needs of the transport sector for South Africa: a bottom-up model

Transport is a large consumer of energy in South Africa and vital for economic development. Currently the transport sector consumes 28% of final energy, the bulk of which, 97%, is in the form of liquid fuels. As the population grows and becomes wealthier, so the demand for passenger transport and private vehicles increases; similarly, rising GDP drives the demand for freight transport. Supply interruptions are costly to the economy and careful long‐term planning is required to ensure that there is sufficient infrastructure to support the efficient functioning and growth of the transport sector in the future

Restoring riparian ecosystems: The challenge of accommodating variability and designing restoration trajectories

Flood disturbance processes play a key role in the functioning of riparian ecosystems and in the maintenance of biodiversity along river corridors. As a result, riparian ecosystems can be described as mobile habitat mosaics characterized by variability and unpredictability. Any river restoration initiative should aim to mimic these attributes. This paper suggests that there needs to be an increased institutional capacity to accept some levels of both variability and unpredictability in the ecological outcomes of river restoration projects. Restoration projects have frequently used some form of historical or contemporary reference system to define objectives and to help in the evaluation process. Using these reference systems can give a false sense of the predictability of ecological outcomes. We suggest that reference systems need to be used with caution for six reasons: (1) there are often no appropriate reference systems to use, (2) many catchment parameters have changed since the times of chosen historic reference systems, (3) climate change has been continuous throughout the Holocene, (4) projected climate change is of uncertain magnitude, (5) alien species cannot be avoided, and (6) landscape context changes through time. As well as defining short-term objectives, we suggest that river restoration projects should also formulate longer-term (decadel) restoration trajectories that are less predictable but more representative of real system attributes. Restoration trajectories could be defined using a range of ecological outcomes to accommodate interannual variability. The challenges of defining what levels of variability are important for restoring European floodplain forests are used to demonstrate the difficulties of broadening approaches and creating trajectories. In particular, the changing significance of variability at different spatial and temporal scales is discussed. An account is given of a restoration project at Wicken Fen in the United Kingdom in which nondeterministic approaches to goal setting have been initiated

Liothyronine for hypothyroidism: A candidate for disinvestment or in need of further research?:A value of information analysis

OBJECTIVE: Medicines with limited evidence of effectiveness are prime candidates for disinvestment. However, investment in further research may be preferable to deimplementation, given that the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, and research can inform formulary decisions. A case in point is liothyronine, which is sometimes prescribed to levothyroxine-treated patients who continue to experience hypothyroid symptoms. It is a putative low value medicine, associated with uncertainties in both clinical and cost-effectiveness. The aim was to assess the cost-effectiveness of liothyronine in this context, and estimate the value of conducting further research. DESIGN: Cost utility and value of information analyses. SETTING: Primary care within the National Health Service in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Fifty-four levothyroxine-treated patients with persistent symptoms of hypothyroidism. INTERVENTIONS: Liothyronine plus levothyroxine versus levothyroxine alone. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, and the expected monetary value of sample information. RESULTS: 20/54 (37%) of patients who responded to the survey reported severe problems in carrying out usual activities of everyday living and 12/54 (22%) reported severe anxiety or depression symptoms. Mean (SD) utility was 0.53 (0.23). The differences in expected total, 10-year costs and QALYs between a treatment strategy of liothyronine/levothyroxine combination therapy, and levothyroxine alone, was £12 053 and 1.014, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £11 881 per QALY gained was sensitive to the price of liothyronine. The probability of liothyronine/levothyroxine combination therapy being cost effective at a threshold of £20 000 per QALY was 0.56. The value of reducing uncertainty in the efficacy of treatment was £3.64 m per year in the UK. CONCLUSIONS: A definitive clinical trial to confirm clinical effectiveness may be preferable to immediate disinvestment, and would be justified given the value of the information gained far exceeds the cost

Towards an ultra-thin medical endoscope: multimode fibre as a wide-field image transferring medium

Multimode optical fibres are attractive for biomedical and industrial applications such as endoscopes because of the small cross section and imaging resolution they can provide in comparison to widely-used fibre bundles. However, the image is randomly scrambled by propagation through a multimode fibre. Even though the scrambling is unpredictable, it is deterministic, and therefore the scrambling can be reversed. To unscramble the image, we treat the multimode fibre as a linear, disordered scattering medium. To calibrate, we scan a focused beam of coherent light over thousands of different beam positions at the distal end and record complex fields at the proximal end of the fibre. This way, the inputoutput response of the system is determined, which then allows computational reconstruction of reflection-mode images. However, there remains the problem of illuminating the tissue via the fibre while avoiding back reflections from the proximal face. To avoid this drawback, we provide here the first preliminary confirmation that an image can be transferred through a 2x2 fibre coupler, with the sample at its distal port interrogated in reflection. Light is injected into one port for illumination and then collected from a second port for imaging

Aircraft wing structural detail design (wing, aileron, flaps, and subsystems)

The goal of this project was to design, in detail, the wing, flaps, and ailerons for a primary flight trainer. Integrated in this design are provisions for the fuel system, the electrical system, and the fuselage/cabin carry-through interface structure. This conceptual design displays the general arrangement of all major components in the wing structure, taking into consideration the requirements set forth by the appropriate sections of Federal Aviation Regulation Part 23 (FAR23) as well as those established in the statement of work

Endoscopic en-face optical coherence tomography and fluorescence imaging using correlation-based probe tracking

Forward-viewing endoscopic optical coherence tomography (OCT) provides 3D imaging in vivo, and can be combined with widefield fluorescence imaging by use of a double-clad fiber. However, it is technically challenging to build a high-performance miniaturized 2D scanning system with a large field-of-view. In this paper we demonstrate how a 1D scanning probe, which produces cross-sectional OCT images (B-scans) and 1D fluorescence T-scans, can be transformed into a 2D scanning probe by manual scanning along the second axis. OCT volumes are assembled from the B-scans using speckle decorrelation measurements to estimate the out-of-plane motion along the manual scan direction. Motion within the plane of the B-scans is corrected using image registration by normalized cross correlation. En-face OCT slices and fluorescence images, corrected for probe motion in 3D, can be displayed in real-time during the scan. For a B-scan frame rate of 250 Hz, and an OCT lateral resolution of approximately 20µ m, the approach can handle out-of-plane motion at speeds of up to 4 mm/s