Time-lagged effects of weather on plant demography: drought and Astragalus scaphoides

Temperature and precipitation determine the conditions where plant species can occur. Despite their significance, to date, surprisingly few demographic field studies have considered the effects of abiotic drivers. This is problematic because anticipating the effect of global climate change on plant population viability requires understanding how weather variables affect population dynamics. One possible reason for omitting the effect of weather variables in demographic studies is the difficulty in detecting tight associations between vital rates and environmental drivers. In this paper, we applied Functional Linear Models (FLMs) to long-term demographic data of the perennial wildflower, Astragalus scaphoides, and explored sensitivity of the results to reduced amounts of data. We compared models of the effect of average temperature, total precipitation, or an integrated measure of drought intensity (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI), on plant vital rates. We found that transitions to flowering and recruitment in year t were highest if winter/spring of year t was wet (positive effect of SPEI). Counterintuitively, if the preceding spring of year t - 1 was wet, flowering probabilities were decreased (negative effect of SPEI). Survival of vegetative plants from t - 1 to t was also negatively affected by wet weather in the spring of year t - 1 and, for large plants, even wet weather in the spring of t - 2 had a negative effect. We assessed the integrated effect of all vital rates on life history performance by fitting FLMs to the asymptotic growth rate, log(kt). Log(kt) was highest if dry conditions in year t - 1 were followed by wet conditions in the year t. Overall, the positive effects of wet years exceeded their negative effects, suggesting that increasing frequency of drought conditions would reduce population viability of A. scaphoides. The drought signal weakened when reducing the number of monitoring years. Substituting space for time did not recover the weather signal, probably because the weather variables varied little between sites. We detected the SPEI signal when the analysis included data from two sites monitored over 20 yr (2 X 20 observations), but not when analyzing data from four sites monitored over 10 yr (4 X 10 observations)

Connectivity: insights from the U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network

Ecosystems across the United States are changing in complex and surprising ways. Ongoing demand for critical ecosystem services requires an understanding of the populations and communities in these ecosystems in the future. This paper represents a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation-funded Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network addressing the core research area of “populations and communities.” The objective of this effort was to show the importance of long-term data collection and experiments for addressing the hardest questions in scientific ecology that have significant implications for environmental policy and management. Each LTER site developed at least one compelling case study about what their site could look like in 50–100 yr as human and environmental drivers influencing specific ecosystems change. As the case studies were prepared, five themes emerged, and the studies were grouped into papers in this LTER Futures Special Feature addressing state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects. This paper addresses the “connectivity” theme and has examples from the Phoenix (urban), Niwot Ridge (alpine tundra), McMurdo Dry Valleys (polar desert), Plum Island (coastal), Santa Barbara Coastal (coastal), and Jornada (arid grassland and shrubland) sites. Connectivity has multiple dimensions, ranging from multi-scalar interactions in space to complex interactions over time that govern the transport of materials and the distribution and movement of organisms. The case studies presented here range widely, showing how land-use legacies interact with climate to alter the structure and function of arid ecosystems and flows of resources and organisms in Antarctic polar desert, alpine, urban, and coastal marine ecosystems. Long-term ecological research demonstrates that connectivity can, in some circumstances, sustain valuable ecosystem functions, such as the persistence of foundation species and their associated biodiversity or, it can be an agent of state change, as when it increases wind and water erosion. Increased connectivity due to warming can also lead to species range expansions or contractions and the introduction of undesirable species. Continued long-term studies are essential for addressing the complexities of connectivity. The diversity of ecosystems within the LTER network is a strong platform for these studies

Patterns of net primary production in Chihuahuan desert ecosystems

The Jornada Basin of southern New Mexico has long been an important location for the study of productivity in semidesert ecosystems. Researchers have studied the magnitude and sustainability of plant production since the founding of the USDA Jornada Experimental Range (JER) in 1912. The consistent administration and research focus of the Jornada Experimental Range and of the Chihuahuan Desert Rangeland Research Center (CDRRC) have facilitated a number of long-term studies of vegetation dynamics and productivity. These long-term datasets are especially critical for understanding semiarid ecosystems, where interannual and decadal scale variation in climate is so great and where plant performance is so strongly constrained by the physical environment. Long-term data, including the net primary productivity data that are the focus of this chapter, are also essential for understanding the progression or, rather, degradation of ecosystem structure that has been called desertification

A New Sticky Trap for Monitoring Seed Rain in Grasslands

The use of an inexpensive, commercially available device as a sticky trap for capturing dispersing seeds in the field is described. Trap performance in capturing seeds under various conditions is evaluated. The traps perform well in capturing small, lightweight seeds, particularly those with awns or ornamentation, as would be typical of many grassland plant species. The adhesive surface of the traps retains its effectiveness when moist, and in the hot, dusty conditions of the field. However, the traps have poor rates of capture for certain seed types, and for seeds dropped from considerable heights. These limitations of performance, which are probably shared with other types of sticky traps for seeds, must be considered when sticky traps are used to evaluate seed rain.This material was digitized as part of a cooperative project between the Society for Range Management and the University of Arizona Libraries.The Journal of Range Management archives are made available by the Society for Range Management and the University of Arizona Libraries. Contact [email protected] for further information.Migrated from OJS platform August 202