History Matching with Subset Simulation

Computational cost often hinders the calibration of complex computer models. In this context, history matching (HM) is becoming a widespread calibration strategy, with applications in many disciplines. HM uses a statistical approximation, also known as an emulator, to the model output, in order to mitigate computational cost. The process starts with an observation of a physical system. It then produces progressively more accurate emulators to determine a non-implausible domain: a subset of the input space that provides a good agreement between the model output and the data, conditional on the model structure, the sources of uncertainty, and an implausibility measure. In HM, it is essential to generate samples from the nonimplausible domain, in order to run the model and train the emulator until a stopping condition is met. However, this sampling can be very challenging, since the nonimplausible domain can become orders of magnitude smaller than the original input space very quickly. This paper proposes a solution to this problem using subset simulation, a rare event sampling technique that works efficiently in high dimensions. The proposed approach is demonstrated via calibration and robust design examples from the field of aerospace engineering

Parallelizing multiple precision Taylor series method for integrating the Lorenz system

A hybrid MPI+OpenMP strategy for parallelizing multiple precision Taylor series method is proposed, realized and tested. To parallelize the algorithm we combine MPI and OpenMP parallel technologies together with GMP library (GNU miltiple precision libary) and the tiny MPIGMP library. The details of the parallelization are explained on the paradigmatic model of the Lorenz system. We succeed to obtain a correct reference solution in the rather long time interval - [0,7000]. The solution is verified by comparing the results for 2700-th order Taylor series method and precision of ~ 3374 decimal digits, and those with 2800-th order and precision of ~ 3510 decimal digits. With 192 CPU cores in Nestum cluster, Sofia, Bulgaria, the 2800-th order computation was ~ 145 hours with speedup ~ 105.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1908.0930

BICEP3: a 95GHz refracting telescope for degree-scale CMB polarization

Bicep3 is a 550 mm-aperture refracting telescope for polarimetry of radiation in the cosmic microwave background at 95 GHz. It adopts the methodology of Bicep1, Bicep2 and the Keck Array experiments | it possesses sufficient resolution to search for signatures of the inflation-induced cosmic gravitational-wave background while utilizing a compact design for ease of construction and to facilitate the characterization and mitigation of systematics. However, Bicep3 represents a significant breakthrough in per-receiver sensitivity, with a focal plane area 5x larger than a Bicep2/Keck Array receiver and faster optics (f=1:6 vs. f=2:4). Large-aperture infrared-reflective metal-mesh filters and infrared-absorptive cold alumina filters and lenses were developed and implemented for its optics. The camera consists of 1280 dual-polarization pixels; each is a pair of orthogonal antenna arrays coupled to transition-edge sensor bolometers and read out by multiplexed SQUIDs. Upon deployment at the South Pole during the 2014-15 season, Bicep3 will have survey speed comparable to Keck Array 150 GHz (2013), and will signifcantly enhance spectral separation of primordial B-mode power from that of possible galactic dust contamination in the Bicep2 observation patch

Can Europe recover without credit?

Data from 135 countries covering five decades suggests that creditless recoveries, in which the stock of real credit does not return to the pre-crisis level for three years after the GDP trough, are not rare and are characterised by remarkable real GDP growth rates: 4.7 percent per year in middle-income countries and 3.2 percent per year in high-income countries. However, the implications of these historical episodes for the current European situation are limited, for two main reasons. First, creditless recoveries are much less common in highincome countries, than in low-income countries which are financially undeveloped. European economies heavily depend on bank loans and research suggests that loan supply played a major role in the recent weak credit performance of Europe. There are reasons to believe that, despite various efforts, normal lending has not yet been restored. Limited loan supply could be disruptive for the European economic recovery and there has been only a minor substitution of bank loans with debt securities. Second, creditless recoveries were associated with significant real exchange rate depreciation, which has hardly occurred so far in most of Europe. This stylised fact suggests that it might be difficult to re-establish economic growth in the absence of sizeable real exchange rate depreciation, if credit growth does not return

BICEP3 performance overview and planned Keck Array upgrade

Bicep3 is a 520mm aperture, compact two-lens refractor designed to observe the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at 95 GHz. Its focal plane consists of modularized tiles of antenna-coupled transition edge sensors (TESs), similar to those used in Bicep2 and the Keck Array. The increased per-receiver optical throughput compared to Bicep2/Keck Array, due to both its faster f=1:7 optics and the larger aperture, more than doubles the combined mapping speed of the Bicep/Keck program. The Bicep3 receiver was recently upgraded to a full complement of 20 tiles of detectors (2560 TESs) and is now beginning its second year of observation (and first science season) at the South Pole. We report on its current performance and observing plans. Given its high per-receiver throughput while maintaining the advantages of a compact design, Bicep3- class receivers are ideally suited as building blocks for a 3rd-generation CMB experiment, consisting of multiple receivers spanning 35 GHz to 270 GHz with total detector count in the tens of thousands. We present plans for such an array, the new "BICEP Array" that will replace the Keck Array at the South Pole, including design optimization, frequency coverage, and deployment/observing strategies

Initial Performance of BICEP3: A Degree Angular Scale 95 GHz Band Polarimeter

BICEP3 is a 550-mm aperture telescope with cold, on-axis, refractive optics designed to observe at the 95-GHz band from the South Pole. It is the newest member of the BICEP/Keck family of inflationary probes specifically designed to measure the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at degree angular scales. BICEP3 is designed to house 1280 dual-polarization pixels, which, when fully populated, totals to ∼9× the number of pixels in a single Keck 95-GHz receiver, thus further advancing the BICEP/Keck program’s 95 GHz mapping speed. BICEP3 was deployed during the austral summer of 2014–2015 with nine detector tiles, to be increased to its full capacity of 20 in the second season. After instrument characterization, measurements were taken, and CMB observation commenced in April 2015. Together with multi-frequency observation data from Planck, BICEP2, and the Keck Array, BICEP3 is projected to set upper limits on the tensor-to-scalar ratio to r ≲ 0.03 at 95 % C.L

Design, implementation and interpretation of in vitro batch culture experiments to assess enteric methane mitigation in ruminants - a review

In vitro fermentation techniques (IVFT) have been widely used to evaluate the nutritivevalue of feeds for ruminants and in the last decade to assess the effect of different nutritionalstrategies on methane (CH4) production. However, many technical factors may influencethe results obtained. The present review has been prepared by the ‘Global Network’ FACCE-JPI international research consortium to provide a critical evaluation of the main factorsthat need to be considered when designing, conducting and interpreting IVFT experimentsthat investigate nutritional strategies to mitigate CH4emission from ruminants. Given theincreasing and wide-scale use of IVFT, there is a need to critically review reports in the lit-erature and establish what criteria are essential to the establishment and implementationof in vitro techniques. Key aspects considered include: i) donor animal species and numberof animal used, ii) diet fed to donor animals, iii) collection and processing of rumen fluidas inoculum, iv) choice of substrate and incubation buffer, v) incubation procedures andCH4measurements, vi) headspace gas composition and vii) comparability of in vitro andin vivo measurements. Based on an evaluation of experimental evidence, a set of techni-cal recommendations are presented to harmonize IVFT for feed evaluation, assessment ofrumen function and CH4production

Detection of B-Mode Polarization at Degree Angular Scales by BICEP2

We report results from the BICEP2 experiment, a cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarimeter specifically designed to search for the signal of inflationary gravitational waves in the B-mode power spectrum around ℓ∼80. The telescope comprised a 26 cm aperture all-cold refracting optical system equipped with a focal plane of 512 antenna coupled transition edge sensor 150 GHz bolometers each with temperature sensitivity of ≈300  μK_(CMB)√s. BICEP2 observed from the South Pole for three seasons from 2010 to 2012. A low-foreground region of sky with an effective area of 380 square deg was observed to a depth of 87 nK deg in Stokes Q and U. In this paper we describe the observations, data reduction, maps, simulations, and results. We find an excess of B-mode power over the base lensed-ΛCDM expectation in the range 305σ. Through jackknife tests and simulations based on detailed calibration measurements we show that systematic contamination is much smaller than the observed excess. Cross correlating against WMAP 23 GHz maps we find that Galactic synchrotron makes a negligible contribution to the observed signal. We also examine a number of available models of polarized dust emission and find that at their default parameter values they predict power ∼(5–10)× smaller than the observed excess signal (with no significant cross-correlation with our maps). However, these models are not sufficiently constrained by external public data to exclude the possibility of dust emission bright enough to explain the entire excess signal. Cross correlating BICEP2 against 100 GHz maps from the BICEP1 experiment, the excess signal is confirmed with 3σ significance and its spectral index is found to be consistent with that of the CMB, disfavoring dust at 1.7σ. The observed B-mode power spectrum is well fit by a lensed-ΛCDM+tensor theoretical model with tensor-to-scalar ratio r=0.20^(+0.07)_(−0.05), with r=0 disfavored at 7.0σ. Accounting for the contribution of foreground, dust will shift this value downward by an amount which will be better constrained with upcoming data sets

de Sitter Supersymmetry Revisited

We present the basic $\mathcal{N} =1$ superconformal field theories in four-dimensional de Sitter space-time, namely the non-abelian super Yang-Mills theory and the chiral multiplet theory with gauge interactions or cubic superpotential. These theories have eight supercharges and are invariant under the full $SO(4,2)$ group of conformal symmetries, which includes the de Sitter isometry group $SO(4,1)$ as a subgroup. The theories are ghost-free and the anti-commutator $\sum_\alpha\{Q_\alpha, Q^{\alpha\dagger}\}$ is positive. SUSY Ward identities uniquely select the Bunch-Davies vacuum state. This vacuum state is invariant under superconformal transformations, despite the fact that de Sitter space has non-zero Hawking temperature. The $\mathcal{N}=1$ theories are classically invariant under the $SU(2,2|1)$ superconformal group, but this symmetry is broken by radiative corrections. However, no such difficulty is expected in the $\mathcal{N}=4$ theory, which is presented in appendix B.Comment: 21 pages, 2 figure

Momentum Dependence of the Nematic Order Parameter in Iron-Based Superconductors.

The momentum dependence of the nematic order parameter is an important ingredient in the microscopic description of iron-based high-temperature superconductors. While recent reports on FeSe indicate that the nematic order parameter changes sign between electron and hole bands, detailed knowledge is still missing for other compounds. Combining angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy with uniaxial strain tuning, we measure the nematic band splitting in both FeSe and BaFe_{2}As_{2} without interference from either twinning or magnetic order. We find that the nematic order parameter exhibits the same momentum dependence in both compounds with a sign change between the Brillouin center and the corner. This suggests that the same microscopic mechanism drives the nematic order in spite of the very different phase diagrams