Insights from unifying modern approximations to infections on networks

Networks are increasingly central to modern science owing to their ability to conceptualize multiple interacting components of a complex system. As a specific example of this, understanding the implications of contact network structure for the transmission of infectious diseases remains a key issue in epidemiology. Three broad approaches to this problem exist: explicit simulation; derivation of exact results for special networks; and dynamical approximations. This paper focuses on the last of these approaches, and makes two main contributions. Firstly, formal mathematical links are demonstrated between several prima facie unrelated dynamical approximations. And secondly, these links are used to derive two novel dynamical models for network epidemiology, which are compared against explicit stochastic simulation. The success of these new models provides improved understanding about the interaction of network structure and transmission dynamics

Social encounter networks : characterizing Great Britain

A major goal of infectious disease epidemiology is to understand and predict the spread of infections within human populations, with the intention of better informing decisions regarding control and intervention. However, the development of fully mechanistic models of transmission requires a quantitative understanding of social interactions and collective properties of social networks. We performed a cross-sectional study of the social contacts on given days for more than 5000 respondents in England, Scotland and Wales, through postal and online survey methods. The survey was designed to elicit detailed and previously unreported measures of the immediate social network of participants relevant to infection spread. Here, we describe individual-level contact patterns, focusing on the range of heterogeneity observed and discuss the correlations between contact patterns and other socio-demographic factors. We find that the distribution of the number of contacts approximates a power-law distribution, but postulate that total contact time (which has a shorter-tailed distribution) is more epidemiologically relevant. We observe that children, public-sector and healthcare workers have the highest number of total contact hours and are therefore most likely to catch and transmit infectious disease. Our study also quantifies the transitive connections made between an individual's contacts (or clustering); this is a key structural characteristic of social networks with important implications for disease transmission and control efficacy. Respondents' networks exhibit high levels of clustering, which varies across social settings and increases with duration, frequency of contact and distance from home. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings for the transmission and control of pathogens spread through close contact

Trust in the US-EU fruit and vegetable chain: Do US exporters understand EU importers?

Research on organizational and inter organizational trust has become an important field in management and marketing literature, as it is perceived as a pivotal aspect of business transactions. However, clarifications are still needed on the issue of whom we trust; is the person whom we are trading with trusted, or the organization, or just the product‐quality? Not only has this question not been answered within this field of research, neither have cultural differences have been described to any great extent. Additionally, if the perceived factors important to establish trusting relationships may or may not be the same on the buyers and the sellers side in international business transaction in food chains. The primary objective of this research study therefore is to identify how well US exporters understand the elements of trust that establish strong relationships with EU importers. The Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to evaluate the importance of different trust elements in interviews conducted with US exporters and EU importers of fruits and vegetables. Results are compared, providing both a picture of the important facets of trust, as well as whether the partners understand the perspectives of the other partner

Lipopolysaccharide and toll-like receptor 4 in dogs with congenital portosystemic shunts

Surgical attenuation of a congenital portosystemic shunt (CPSS) results in increased portal vein perfusion, liver growth and clinical improvement. Portal lipopolysaccharide (LPS) is implicated in liver regeneration via toll-like receptor (TLR) 4 mediated cytokine activation. The aim of this study was to investigate factors associated with LPS in dogs with CPSS. Plasma LPS concentrations were measured in the peripheral and portal blood using a limulus amoebocyte lysate (LAL) assay. LPS concentration was significantly greater in the portal blood compared to peripheral blood in dogs with CPSS (P = 0.046) and control dogs (P = 0.002). LPS concentrations in the peripheral (P = 0.012) and portal (P = 0.005) blood of dogs with CPSS were significantly greater than those of control dogs. The relative mRNA expression of cytokines and TLRs was measured in liver biopsies from dogs with CPSS using quantitative PCR. TLR4 expression significantly increased following partial CPSS attenuation (P = 0.020). TLR4 expression was significantly greater in dogs that tolerated complete CPSS attenuation (P = 0.011) and those with good portal blood flow on pre-attenuation (P = 0.004) and post-attenuation (P = 0.015) portovenography. Serum interleukin (IL)-6 concentration was measured using a canine specific ELISA and significantly increased 24 h following CPSS attenuation (P < 0.001). Portal LPS was increased in dogs with CPSS, consistent with decreased hepatic clearance. TLR4 mRNA expression was significantly associated with portal blood flow and increased following surgery. These findings support the concept that portal LPS delivery is important in the hepatic response to surgical attenuation. Serum IL-6 significantly increased following surgery, consistent with LPS stimulation via TLR4, although this increase might be non-specific

The association between retinal vein ophthalmodynamometric force change and optic disc excavation

Aim: Retinal vein ophthalmodynamometric force (ODF) is predictive of future optic disc excavation in glaucoma, but it is not known if variation in ODF affects prognosis. We aimed to assess whether a change in ODF provides additional prognostic information. Methods: 135 eyes of 75 patients with glaucoma or being glaucoma suspects had intraocular pressure (IOP), visual fields, stereo optic disc photography and ODF measured on an initial visit and a subsequent visit at mean 82 (SD 7.3) months later. Corneal thickness and blood pressure were recorded on the latter visit. When venous pulsation was spontaneous, the ODF was recorded as 0 g. Change in ODF was calculated. Flicker stereochronoscopy was used to determine the occurrence of optic disc excavation, which was modelled against the measured variables using multiple mixed effects logistic regression. Results: Change in ODF (p=0.046) was associated with increased excavation. Average IOP (p=0.66) and other variables were not associated. Odds ratio for increased optic disc excavation of 1.045 per gram ODF change (95% CI 1.001 to 1.090) was calculated. Conclusion: Change in retinal vein ODF may provide additional information to assist with glaucoma prognostication and implies a significant relationship between venous change and glaucoma patho-physiology

Multi-Scaling of Correlation Functions in Single Species Reaction-Diffusion Systems

We derive the multi-fractal scaling of probability distributions of multi-particle configurations for the binary reaction-diffusion system $A+A \to \emptyset$ in $d \leq 2$ and for the ternary system $3A \to \emptyset$ in $d=1$. For the binary reaction we find that the probability $P_{t}(N, \Delta V)$ of finding $N$ particles in a fixed volume element $\Delta V$ at time $t$ decays in the limit of large time as $(\frac{\ln t}{t})^{N}(\ln t)^{-\frac{N(N-1)}{2}}$ for $d=2$ and t^{-Nd/2}t^{-\frac{N(N-1)\epsilon}{4}+\mathcal{O}(\ep^2)} for $d<2$. Here \ep=2-d. For the ternary reaction in one dimension we find that $P_{t}(N,\Delta V) \sim (\frac{\ln t}{t})^{N/2}(\ln t)^{-\frac{N(N-1)(N-2)}{6}}$. The principal tool of our study is the dynamical renormalization group. We compare predictions of \ep-expansions for $P_{t}(N,\Delta V)$ for binary reaction in one dimension against exact known results. We conclude that the \ep-corrections of order two and higher are absent in the above answer for $P_{t}(N, \Delta V)$ for $N=1,2,3,4$. Furthermore we conjecture the absence of \ep^2-corrections for all values of $N$.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figure

Varieties of Limited Access Orders: The nexus between politics and economics in hybrid regimes

This article advances our understanding of differences in hybrid stability by going beyond existing regime typologies that separate the study of political institutions from the study of economic institutions. It combines the work of Douglass North, John Wallis, and Barry Weingast (NWW) on varieties of social orders with the literature on political and economic regime typologies and dynamics to understand hybrid regimes as Limited Access Orders (LAOs) that differ in the way dominant elites limit access to political and economic resources. Based on a measurement of political and economic access applied to seven post‐Soviet states, the article identifies four types of LAOs. Challenging NWW's claim, it shows that hybrid regimes can combine different degrees of political and economic access to sustain stability. Our typology allows to form theoretical expectations about the kinds of political and/or economic changes that will move different types of LAOs toward more openness or closure

Colloidal gas aphron extraction of bioactive compounds from brazilian pinot noir grape pomace.

Residues from the food industry are a problem worldwide. Alternatives have been developed in an attempted to extract compounds from fruit pomace in other to apply those as a natural component in different products. This work has the objective to produce two extracts: (1) ethanolic extract and (2) hot water extract; and characterize the chemical composition of these extracts for future application. In sequence an extraction using surfactants (Colloidal Gas Aphron) was applied in order to obtain a more concentrate and pure extract, in a foam form with better physical properties. The ethanolic extraction was more efficient, obtaining 4 times more bioactive compound (in 100g of pomace: 2670.63 mg Gallic Acid; 65.70 mg anthocyanins and 45,564.78 mmol of Trolox). However the CGA was able to concentrate more the compounds from hot water extract, 61.62% of phenolics compounds were concentrated in the Aphron phase

The stellar metallicity distribution of disc galaxies and bulges in cosmological simulations

By means of high-resolution cosmological hydrodynamical simulations of Milky Way-like disc galaxies, we conduct an analysis of the associated stellar metallicity distribution functions (MDFs). After undertaking a kinematic decomposition of each simulation into spheroid and disc sub-components, we compare the predicted MDFs to those observed in the solar neighbourhood and the Galactic bulge. The effects of the star formation density threshold are visible in the star formation histories, which show a modulation in their behaviour driven by the threshold. The derived MDFs show median metallicities lower by 0.2-0.3 dex than the MDF observed locally in the disc and in the Galactic bulge. Possible reasons for this apparent discrepancy include the use of low stellar yields and/or centrally-concentrated star formation. The dispersions are larger than the one of the observed MDF; this could be due to simulated discs being kinematically hotter relative to the Milky Way. The fraction of low metallicity stars is largely overestimated, visible from the more negatively skewed MDF with respect to the observational sample. For our fiducial Milky Way analog, we study the metallicity distribution of the stars born "in situ" relative to those formed via accretion (from disrupted satellites), and demonstrate that this low-metallicity tail to the MDF is populated primarily by accreted stars. Enhanced supernova and stellar radiation energy feedback to the surrounding interstellar media of these pre-disrupted satellites is suggested as an important regulator of the MDF skewness.Comment: 20 pages, 14 figures, MNRAS, accepte