Integrated Water Resources Management Modelling For The Oldman River Basin Using System Dynamics Approach

Limited freshwater supply is the most important challenge in water resources management, particularly in arid and semi-arid basins. However, other variations in a basin, including climate change, population growth, and economic development intensify this threat to water security. The Oldman River Basin (OMRB), located in southern Alberta, Canada, is a semi-arid basin and encompasses several water challenges, including uncertain water supply as well as increasing, uncertain water demands (consumptive irrigation, municipal, and industrial demands, and non-consumptive hydropower generation, and environmental demands). Reservoirs, of which the Oldman River Reservoir is the largest in the basin, are responsible for meeting most of demands, and, protecting the basin’s economy. The OMRB has also faced extreme natural events, floods and droughts, in the past, which reservoir management plays a critical role to adapt to. The complexity of the climate, hydrology, and water resource system and water governance escalates the challenges in the basin. These factors are highly interconnected and establish dynamic, non-linear behavior, which requires an integrated, feedback-based tool to investigate. Integrated water resources (IWRM) modelling using system dynamics (SD) is such an approach to tackle the different water challenges and understand their non-linear, dynamic pattern. In this research study the Sustainability-oriented Water Allocation, Management, and Planning (SWAMPOM) model for the Oldman River Basin is developed. SWAMPOM comprises a water allocation model, dynamic irrigation demand, instream flow needs (IFN), and economic evaluation sub-models. The water allocation model allocates water to all the above-mentioned demands at a weekly time step from 1928 to 2001, and under different water availability scenarios. Meeting irrigation demands relies on the crop water requirement (CWR), which is calculated under different climatic conditions by the dynamic irrigation demand sub-model. This sub-model estimates the weekly irrigation demand for main crops planted in the basin. SWAMPOM also computes environmental demands or instream flow need (IFN) for the Oldman River, and allocates water to rivers to meet IFN under different policy scenarios and uncertain water supply. Finally, the major water-related economic benefit in the basin, earned by agriculture and hydropower generation, is computed by the economic evaluation sub-model. The results show that SWAMPOM could reasonably satisfy the demands at a weekly time step and provide an adequate estimation of the crop water requirement under different hydrometeorological conditions. Based on the SWAMPOM’s results, the average annual irrigation demand is 306 mm over the historical time period from 1928 to 2001 in the main irrigation districts. The average weekly instream flow need of the Oldman River is calculated to be approximately 20.5 m3/s, which can be met in more than 97% of weeks in the historical time period. Average annual water-related economic benefit was computed to be 192.5 M$in the OMRB. It decreased to 82.8 M$ in very dry years, and increased up to 328.6 M$ in very wet years. This research also developed different sets of Oldman Reservoir’s operation zones, resulting in trade-offs between the optimal economic benefit, water allocated to the ecosystem, minimum floodwater and minimum flood frequency. This helps decision makers to decide how much water should be stored in the reservoir to meet a specific objective while not sacrificing others. A multi-objective performance assessment, Pareto curve approach, is applied to identify the optimal trade-offs between the four objective functions (OFs), and 18 different optimal, or close to optimal sets of operating zones are provided. The decision regarding the operating zones depends on decision makers’ preference for higher economic benefit, water allocated to IFN, or flood security. However, the set of operating zones with minimum floodwater causes 11 less flood events; the operating zones with maximum economic benefits result in 4.1% more financial gain; and the zones with maximum water allocated to IFN lead to 10.1% more ecosystem protection in the whole 74 years, compared to current zones

Seroepidemiology of Toxocariasis in Children (5-15 yr Old) Referred to the Pediatric Clinic of Imam Hossein Hospital, Isfahan, Iran.

BACKGROUND: Human toxocariasis, a helminthozoonosis, is due to the migration of Toxocara species larvae into human organisms. Humans, especially children become infected by ingesting of embryonated eggs from soil, dirty hands, and raw vegetables. Seroprevalence of this infection is high in developed countries, especially in rural areas. The aim of this study was to investigate the seroepidemiology of Toxocariasis in children referred to the pediatric clinic of Imam Hossein hospital, Isfahan, Iran. METHODS: In this cross sectional study the sera of children aged 5 to 15 years old, admitted to Imam Hossein Pediatric Hospital were collected during 2013-14. Then the sera were examined for anti Toxocara canis antibodies using commercial ELISA kit. RESULTS: From 427 children, 196 (45.9%) were female and 231(54.1%) were male. 107(25.1%) were from rural and 320 (74.9%) were from urban area. Of them 129 (30.2%) were contacted with dog. One child (0.2%) had hypereosinophilia, 33 (7.7%) eosinophlia, and 6 (1.39%) were positive for T. canis IgG (two male and four female). Four of infected children with T. canis were from urban (1.25%) and two from rural areas (1.9%). There was no significant correlation between education of parents, gender, age, place of living and contact with dog with ELISA results test. CONCLUSION: Toxocariasis is prevalent in the children of Isfahan region. Results suggest a low Toxocara exposure in children in this area. Therefore, more risk factors associated with Toxocara exposure should be identified in the further investigatio

Echinococcus granulosus genotypes in Iran

Hydatidosis, caused by Echinococcus granulosus is one of the most important zoonotic diseases, throughout most parts of the world. Hydatidosis is endemic in Iran and responsible for approximately 1 of admission to surgical wards. There are extensive genetic variations within E. granulosus and 10 different genotypes (G1-G10) within this parasite have been reported. Identification of strains is important for improvement of control and prevention of the disease. No new review article presented the situation of Echinococcus granulosus genotypes in Iran in the recent years; therefore in this paper we reviewed the different studies regarding Echinococcus granulosus genotypes in Iran

Parasites and chronic renal failure.

Suppression of the human immune system results in an increase in susceptibility to infection by various infectious agents. Conditions such as AIDS, organ transplantation and chronic renal insufficiency (CRI) are the most important cause of insufficient immune response against infections. Long term renal disorders result in uremia, which can suppress human immune system. Parasitic infections are one of the most important factors indicating the public health problems of the societies. These infections can be more hostile and life threatening in susceptible individuals than in the normal people. In these patients some parasitic infections such as blastocystiosis, cryptosporidiosis and toxoplasmosis have been reported to be more prevalent. This review aimed to give an overview about parasitic infections in patients with renal disorders

Self-Doping of the Transport Layers Decreases the Bimolecular Recombination by Reducing Static Disorder

Electron-transport layers (ETLs) have a crucial role in the solar cells’ performance. Generally, ETLs are characterized in terms of the interface properties and conductivity rather than their effect on the photoactive layer. Herein, two ETLs, 2,9-bis(3-((3-(dimethylamino)propyl)amino)propyl)anthra[2,1,9-def:6,5,10-d′e′f′]diisoquinoline-1,3,8,10(2H,9H)-tetraone (PDINN) and 2,9-bis[3-(dimethyloxidoamino)propyl]anthra[2,1,9-def:6,5,10-d′e′f′]diisoquinoline-1,3,8,10(2H,9H)-tetrone, are compared in the conventional PM6:Y6 organic solar cell (OSC) structure and the influence of the ETL on the photoactive layer is shown. It is shown that a significant portion of the unpaired electrons of PDINN is mobile by combining electron paramagnetic resonance and Hall effect measurements. It is established that the high doping in PDINN ETL changes the dark electron concentration of the photoactive layer. The impacts of this change in the photoactive layer can be observed in the reduced static energetic disorder, and subsequently in the (nonradiative) recombination of free carriers. The results can be used to suppress nonradiative recombination in OSC, which can significantly boost their efficiency

Designing and verifying an instrument to measure religiosity

For downloading the full-text of this article please click here.Background and Objective: In spite of the paramount importance of religion in human life, the definition of its domain, concepts, and components is subject to theoretical and methodological uncertainty. The root of many of these ambiguities lies in the absence of appropriate measurement tools. Given that, the main purpose of this research is validating and determining reliability of a local instrument for measuring religiosity.Method: This study aimed at developing an instrument. The participants were provided with researchers' questionnaire developed after studying documents and providing the theoretical framework, preparing question banks and validity. The sample, 500 adult citizens over 18 years old in 22 districts of Tehran selected by using random sampling and classification according to gender, age, and area of residence. The obtained data were utilized for exploratory factor analysis, Cronbach's alpha reliability, validity criteria, indicators fitted, and eventually the introduction of religiosity questionnaire. In this research, all the Ethical issues were observed and authors declared no conflicts of interest.Results: Based on exploratory factor analysis (EFA), seven factors accounted for 65.67% of the religiosity variance. The results of exploratory factor analysis (RMSEA=0.08, CFI=0.907, GFI=0.869) show the 21-item questionnaire has an acceptable fit. The internal consistency (α=0.83) and consistency over time also indicated that the final questionnaire has acceptable reliability.Conclusion: Results show that the developed questionnaire is acceptable in terms of validity and reliability to be used in Islamic societies for measuring religiosity.For downloading the full-text of this article please click here.Please cite this article as: Shahmirzalou H, Rafiey H­, Mousavi MT, Ghaedamini Harouni Gh, Hosseini Safa Z. Designing and verifying an instrument to measure religiosity. J Res Relig Health. 2019; 5(2):6- 22. doi: https://doi.org/10.22037/jrrh.v5i2.1930

A first update on mapping the human genetic architecture of COVID-19

peer reviewe

A benefit-harm and cost-effectiveness analysis of azithromycin for the prevention of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Low-dose oral azithromycin therapy is recommended as a preventive treatment for acute exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). However, its role in the treatment of COPD remains controversial owing to its side effects. I determined the overall benefit- harm balance as well as the cost-effectiveness of using long-term azithromycin as an add-on to maximal inhaled therapy in the management of patients with COPD, compared with maximal inhaled therapy alone. To evaluate the benefit-harm of azithromycin, I created a probabilistic Markov model of COPD to simulate the course of COPD over 20 years. For assessing the cost-effectiveness, I extended a previously validated health economics model of COPD for Canada to include azithromycin-related outcomes. In both studies, the benefit of azithromycin was modelled as a reduction in exacerbation rates. Adverse events, including cardiovascular events, hearing loss, gastrointestinal symptoms, and antimicrobial resistance (leading to a gradual decline in the effectiveness of azithromycin), were considered. All outcomes were assigned a health-related utility weight to estimate the overall net change in the quality-adjusted life years (QALY) associated with the use of azithromycin. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was defined as the incremental costs (in 2020 Canadian dollars) per QALY gained, and per exacerbation avoided, with costs and health outcomes discounted at 1.5% per year. All outcomes were calculated among subgroups with different exacerbation histories. In the first study, among patients with a positive exacerbation history, azithromycin resulted in a net QALY gain of 17.9 per 100 patients (99.8% probability of positive expected QALY gain) over 20 years. The net benefit increased to 21.8 QALYs per 100 patients (99.9% probability of positive expected QALY gain) among the ‘frequent exacerbators’. In the second study, the ICER was $16,850 per QALY gained for treatment with azithromycin among patients with a positive exacerbation history. The ICER decreased to$8,544 per person over 20 years among the ‘frequent exacerbator’ subgroup. Azithromycin had an ICER greater than $100,000 per QALY gained among those without any moderate/severe exacerbations in the previous year. Findings were robust against a series of sensitivity, scenario, and threshold analyses.Pharmaceutical Sciences, Faculty ofGraduat

Incorporating economical issues and uncertainties of long-term inflow forecast for decision making on agricultural water allocation during droughts Incorporating economical issues and uncertainties of long-term inflow forecast for decision making on agric

Article available on lin e / Article dispon ible en lign e à l'adresse : Abstract. Optimum water allocation for agricultural sector as the main water consumer in the beginning of operation period under drought condition is of great importance. However, one of the most important information under such a condition is the long-term inflow forecast that is associated with high uncertainty. This paper is aimed to present a methodology to incorporate this uncertainty as well as economical issues for water allocation. For this, various models, including optimization of agricultural water allocation under water scarcity, long-term flow forecast and quantification of the forecast uncertainties are developed and linked. The results show that the presented methodology is able to properly consider socio-economical issues and coordinates well with the operational requirements. The Zayandeh Rud dam and irrigation system is selected to explore the methodology of this research work. To cite th is article / Pou r citer cet article Keywords. Agricultural water allocation -Uncertainty -Forecasting -Economical approach -Drought management -Zayandeh Rud basin. Incorporer les questions économiques et les incertitudes quant aux prévisions d'apports à lon