Incorporating economical issues and uncertainties of long-term inflow forecast for decision making on agricultural water allocation during droughts Incorporating economical issues and uncertainties of long-term inflow forecast for decision making on agric

Abstract

Article available on lin e / Article dispon ible en lign e à l'adresse : Abstract. Optimum water allocation for agricultural sector as the main water consumer in the beginning of operation period under drought condition is of great importance. However, one of the most important information under such a condition is the long-term inflow forecast that is associated with high uncertainty. This paper is aimed to present a methodology to incorporate this uncertainty as well as economical issues for water allocation. For this, various models, including optimization of agricultural water allocation under water scarcity, long-term flow forecast and quantification of the forecast uncertainties are developed and linked. The results show that the presented methodology is able to properly consider socio-economical issues and coordinates well with the operational requirements. The Zayandeh Rud dam and irrigation system is selected to explore the methodology of this research work. To cite th is article / Pou r citer cet article Keywords. Agricultural water allocation -Uncertainty -Forecasting -Economical approach -Drought management -Zayandeh Rud basin. Incorporer les questions économiques et les incertitudes quant aux prévisions d'apports à lon