Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation

Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses judgment to develop and apply rules for combining extrapolations. The judgment comes from two sources, forecasting expertise and domain knowledge. Forecasting expertise is based on more than a half century of research. Domain knowledge is obtained in a structured way; one example of domain knowledge is managers= expectations about trends, which we call “causal forces.” Time series are described in terms of 28 conditions, which are used to assign weights to extrapolations. Empirical results on multiple sets of time series show that RBF produces more accurate forecasts than those from traditional extrapolation methods or equal-weights combined extrapolations. RBF is most useful when it is based on good domain knowledge, the domain knowledge is important, the series is well behaved (such that patterns can be identified), there is a strong trend in the data, and the forecast horizon is long. Under ideal conditions, the error for RBF’s forecasts were one-third less than those for equal-weights combining. When these conditions are absent, RBF neither improves nor harms forecast accuracy. Some of RBF’s rules can be used with traditional extrapolation procedures. In a series of studies, rules based on causal forces improved the selection of forecasting methods, the structuring of time series, and the assessment of prediction intervals

River Restoration in Spain: Theoretical and Practical Approach in the Context of the European Water Framework Directive.

River restoration is becoming a priority in many countries because of increasing the awareness of environmental degradation. In Europe, the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) has significantly reinforced river restoration, encouraging the improvement of ecological status for water bodies. To fulfill the WFD requirements, the Spanish Ministry of the Environment developed in 2006 a National Strategy for River Restoration whose design and implementation are described in this paper. At the same time many restoration projects have been conducted, and sixty of them have been evaluated in terms of stated objectives and pressures and implemented restoration measures. Riparian vegetation enhancement, weir removal and fish passes were the most frequently implemented restoration measures, although the greatest pressures came from hydrologic alteration caused by flow regulation for irrigation purposes. Water deficits in quantity and quality associated with uncontrolled water demands seriously affect Mediterranean rivers and represent the main constraint to achieving good ecological status of Spanish rivers, most of them intensively regulated. Proper environmental allocation of in-stream flows would need deep restrictions in agricultural water use which seem to be of very difficult social acceptance. This situation highlights the need to integrate land-use and rural development policies with water resources and river management, and identifies additional difficulties in achieving the WFD objectives and good ecological status of rivers in Mediterranean countries

Recent Advances in Our Understanding of the Role of Meltwater in the Greenland Ice Sheet System

Nienow, Sole and Cowton’s Greenland research has been supported by a number of UK NERC research grants (NER/O/S/2003/00620; NE/F021399/1; NE/H024964/1; NE/K015249/1; NE/K014609/1) and Slater has been supported by a NERC PhD studentshipPurpose of the review:  This review discusses the role that meltwater plays within the Greenland ice sheet system. The ice sheet’s hydrology is important because it affects mass balance through its impact on meltwater runoff processes and ice dynamics. The review considers recent advances in our understanding of the storage and routing of water through the supraglacial, englacial, and subglacial components of the system and their implications for the ice sheet Recent findings:   There have been dramatic increases in surface meltwater generation and runoff since the early 1990s, both due to increased air temperatures and decreasing surface albedo. Processes in the subglacial drainage system have similarities to valley glaciers and in a warming climate, the efficiency of meltwater routing to the ice sheet margin is likely to increase. The behaviour of the subglacial drainage system appears to limit the impact of increased surface melt on annual rates of ice motion, in sections of the ice sheet that terminate on land, while the large volumes of meltwater routed subglacially deliver significant volumes of sediment and nutrients to downstream ecosystems. Summary:  Considerable advances have been made recently in our understanding of Greenland ice sheet hydrology and its wider influences. Nevertheless, critical gaps persist both in our understanding of hydrology-dynamics coupling, notably at tidewater glaciers, and in runoff processes which ensure that projecting Greenland’s future mass balance remains challenging.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Comprehensive molecular characterization of the hippo signaling pathway in cancer

Hippo signaling has been recognized as a key tumor suppressor pathway. Here, we perform a comprehensive molecular characterization of 19 Hippo core genes in 9,125 tumor samples across 33 cancer types using multidimensional “omic” data from The Cancer Genome Atlas. We identify somatic drivers among Hippo genes and the related microRNA (miRNA) regulators, and using functional genomic approaches, we experimentally characterize YAP and TAZ mutation effects and miR-590 and miR-200a regulation for TAZ. Hippo pathway activity is best characterized by a YAP/TAZ transcriptional target signature of 22 genes, which shows robust prognostic power across cancer types. Our elastic-net integrated modeling further reveals cancer-type-specific pathway regulators and associated cancer drivers. Our results highlight the importance of Hippo signaling in squamous cell cancers, characterized by frequent amplification of YAP/TAZ, high expression heterogeneity, and significant prognostic patterns. This study represents a systems-biology approach to characterizing key cancer signaling pathways in the post-genomic era