Model Ensembles of Ecosystem Services Fill Global Certainty and Capacity Gaps

Sustaining ecosystem services (ES) critical to human wellbeing is hindered by many practitioners lacking access to ES models (‘the capacity gap’) or knowledge of the accuracy of available models (‘the certainty gap’), especially in the world’s poorer regions. We developed ensembles of multiple models at an unprecedented global scale for five ES of high policy relevance. Ensembles were 2-14% more accurate than individual models. Ensemble accuracy was not correlated with proxies for research capacity – indicating accuracy is distributed equitably across the globe and that countries less able to research ES suffer no accuracy penalty. By making these ES ensembles and associated accuracy estimates freely available, we provide globally consistent ES information that can support policy and decision making in regions with low data availability or low capacity for implementing complex ES models. Thus, we hope to reduce the capacity and certainty gaps impeding local to global-scale movement towards ES sustainability

A continental-scale validation of ecosystem service models

Faced with environmental degradation, governments worldwide are developing policies to safeguard ecosystem services (ES). Many ES models exist to support these policies, but they are generally poorly validated, especially at large scales, which undermines their credibility. To address this gap, we describe a study of multiple models of five ES, which we validate at an unprecedented scale against 1675 data points across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that potential ES (biophysical supply of carbon and water) are reasonably well predicted by the existing models. These potential ES models can also be used as inputs to new models for realised ES (use of charcoal, firewood, grazing resources and water), by adding information on human population density. We find that increasing model complexity can improve estimates of both potential and realised ES, suggesting that developing more detailed models of ES will be beneficial. Furthermore, in 85% of cases, human population density alone was as good or a better predictor of realised ES than ES models, suggesting that it is demand, rather than supply that is predominantly determining current patterns of ES use. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of ES model validation, even in data-deficient locations such as sub-Saharan Africa. Our work also shows the clear need for more work on the demand side of ES models, and the importance of model validation in providing a stronger base to support policies which seek to achieve sustainable development in support of human well-being

A Phase Ib dose-escalation study to evaluate safety and tolerability of the addition of the aminopeptidase inhibitor tosedostat (CHR-2797) to paclitaxel in patients with advanced solid tumours

Contains fulltext : 89517timmer-bonte.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access)BACKGROUND: This Phase Ib dose-escalating study investigated safety, maximum tolerated dose (MTD), dose-limiting toxicity (DLT), pharmacokinetics (PK) and clinical antitumour activity of tosedostat (CHR-2797), an orally bioavailable aminopeptidase inhibitor, in combination with paclitaxel. METHODS: A total of 22 patients received paclitaxel (135-175 mg m(-2)) intravenously, administered once every three weeks for up to six cycles, with oral tosedostat (90-240 mg) daily. RESULTS: One DLT (grade 3 dyspnoea) was observed in one patient with tosedostat 180 mg combined with paclitaxel 175 mg m(-2). A high number of paclitaxel infusion reactions was noted during the second administration (59%) and this prompted interruption of tosedostat dosing for 5 days around every second and subsequent paclitaxel infusion. No formal MTD was determined because of the high frequency of paclitaxel infusion reactions that may have been influenced by tosedostat. Most frequently observed drug-related adverse events were alopecia, fatigue (95% each), peripheral sensory neuropathy (59%), paclitaxel hypersensitivity (59%) and rash (55%). One patient died because of eosinophilic myocarditis, possibly related to study medication. There was no PK interaction between tosedostat and paclitaxel. In all, 3 patients had a partial response and 12 patients had stable disease lasting >3 months. CONCLUSION: The combination of tosedostat with paclitaxel was well tolerated except for the high incidence of paclitaxel-related infusion reactions

Long working hours and risk of coronary heart disease and stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis of published and unpublished data for 603 838 individuals

Background: Long working hours might increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, but prospective evidence is scarce, imprecise, and mostly limited to coronary heart disease. We aimed to assess long working hours as a risk factor for incident coronary heart disease and stroke. / Methods: We identified published studies through a systematic review of PubMed and Embase from inception to Aug 20, 2014. We obtained unpublished data for 20 cohort studies from the Individual-Participant-Data Meta-analysis in Working Populations (IPD-Work) Consortium and open-access data archives. We used cumulative random-effects meta-analysis to combine effect estimates from published and unpublished data. / Findings: We included 25 studies from 24 cohorts in Europe, the USA, and Australia. The meta-analysis of coronary heart disease comprised data for 603 838 men and women who were free from coronary heart disease at baseline; the meta-analysis of stroke comprised data for 528 908 men and women who were free from stroke at baseline. Follow-up for coronary heart disease was 5·1 million person-years (mean 8·5 years), in which 4768 events were recorded, and for stroke was 3·8 million person-years (mean 7·2 years), in which 1722 events were recorded. In cumulative meta-analysis adjusted for age, sex, and socioeconomic status, compared with standard hours (35–40 h per week), working long hours (≥55 h per week) was associated with an increase in risk of incident coronary heart disease (relative risk [RR] 1·13, 95% CI 1·02–1·26; p=0·02) and incident stroke (1·33, 1·11–1·61; p=0·002). The excess risk of stroke remained unchanged in analyses that addressed reverse causation, multivariable adjustments for other risk factors, and different methods of stroke ascertainment (range of RR estimates 1·30–1·42). We recorded a dose–response association for stroke, with RR estimates of 1·10 (95% CI 0·94–1·28; p=0·24) for 41–48 working hours, 1·27 (1·03–1·56; p=0·03) for 49–54 working hours, and 1·33 (1·11–1·61; p=0·002) for 55 working hours or more per week compared with standard working hours (ptrend<0·0001). / Interpretation: Employees who work long hours have a higher risk of stroke than those working standard hours; the association with coronary heart disease is weaker. These findings suggest that more attention should be paid to the management of vascular risk factors in individuals who work long hours. / Funding: Medical Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, European Union New and Emerging Risks in Occupational Safety and Health research programme, Finnish Work Environment Fund, Swedish Research Council for Working Life and Social Research, German Social Accident Insurance, Danish National Research Centre for the Working Environment, Academy of Finland, Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment (Netherlands), US National Institutes of Health, British Heart Foundation

Neck disorder influenced by occupational reward type: Results from effort-reward imbalance model based on IPWS

Effort-Reward Imbalance model is known as one of the survey method of occupational stress and also as an effective element on health condition according to its parameters. Due to types of rewards generally, and reward subscales in this model specifically, each one can have a distinctive effect on health perception, current study is aimed at determination of the most effective reward subscale for managing work-related neck disorder in industries. All of workers who participated in IPWS study (N = 1126), were entered in the statistical analysis stage. After completing personal and organizational information, they responded to Van Vegchel et al. Effort-Reward Imbalance and also Dutch questionnaires for their musculoskeletal disorders. Chi-square and t-test comparisons were performed and the final regression model was presented with a significance level of 0.05. The mean (Standard deviation) age of workers and musculoskeletal disorders prevalence in neck were 33.21 (7.63) years and 34 percent respectively. Also in workers with neck pain, odds ratio between effort and monetary reward, between effort and respect reward, and between effort and security reward in their jobs were 1.35, 2.07 and 1.32 respectively. After elimination of confounders in final regression model, significant correlation was remained only between effort and job respect reward. According to high prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders in neck and also large amount of effort-reward imbalance in Iranian workers, implementing interventions are recommended. Based on results of present study, it is suggested that main intervention must be focused on respect and esteem reward in jobs. © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

Modelling historical landscape changes

Context: Historical maps of land use/land cover (LULC) enable detection of landscape changes, and help to assess drivers and potential future trajectories. However, historical maps are often limited in their spatial and temporal coverage. There is a need to develop and test methods to improve re-construction of historical landscape change. Objectives: To implement a modelling method to accurately identify key land use changes over a rural landscape at multiple time points. Methods: We used existing LULC maps at two time points for 1930 and 2015, along with a habitat time-series dataset, to construct two new, modelled LULC maps for Dorset in 1950 and 1980 to produce a four-step time-series. We used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Scenario Generator tool to model new LULC maps. Results: The modelled 1950 and 1980 LULC maps were cross-validated against habitat survey data and demonstrated a high level of accuracy (87% and 84%, respectively) and low levels of model uncertainty. The LULC time-series revealed the timing of LULC changes in detail, with the greatest losses in neutral and calcareous grassland having occurred by 1950, the period when arable land expanded the most, whilst the expansion in agriculturally-improved grassland was greatest over the period 1950–1980. Conclusions: We show that the modelling approach is a viable methodology for re-constructing historical landscapes. The time-series output can be useful for assessing patterns and changes in the landscape, such as fragmentation and ecosystem service delivery, which is important for informing future land management and conservation strategies

Job strain and tobacco smoking: an individual-participant data meta-analysis of 166,130 adults in 15 European studies.

Tobacco smoking is a major contributor to the public health burden and healthcare costs worldwide, but the determinants of smoking behaviours are poorly understood. We conducted a large individual-participant meta-analysis to examine the extent to which work-related stress, operationalised as job strain, is associated with tobacco smoking in working adults