The Legitimacy, Accountability, and Ownership of an Impact-Based Forecasting Model in Disaster Governance

The global shift within disaster governance from disaster response to preparedness and risk reduction includes the emergency of novel Early Warning Systems such as impact based forecasting and forecast-based financing. In this new paradigm, funds usually reserved for response can be released before a disaster happens when an impact-based forecast—i.e., the expected humanitarian impact as a result of the forecasted weather—reaches a predefined danger level. The development of these impact-based forecasting models are promising, but they also come with significant implementation challenges. This article presents the data-driven impact-based forecasting model as developed by 510, an initiative of the Netherlands Red Cross. It elaborates on how questions on legitimacy, accountability and ownership influenced the implementation of the model within the Philippines with the Philippine Red Cross and the local government as the main stakeholders. The findings imply that the exchange of knowledge between the designer and manufacturer of impact-based models and the end users of those models fall short if novel Early Warnign Systems are seen as just a matter of technology transfer. Instead the development and implementation of impact based models should be based on mutual understanding of the users’ needs and the developers of such models

Increased cocaine self-administration in rats lacking the serotonin transporter : a role for glutamatergic signaling in the habenula

Serotonin (5-HT) and the habenula (Hb) contribute to motivational and emotional states such as depression and drug abuse. The dorsal raphe nucleus, where 5-HT neurons originate, and the Hb are anatomically and reciprocally interconnected. Evidence exists that 5-HT influences Hb glutamatergic transmission. Using serotonin transporter knockout (SERT-/- ) rats, which show depression-like behavior and increased cocaine intake, we investigated the effect of SERT reduction on expression of genes involved in glutamate neurotransmission under both baseline conditions as well as after short-access or long-access cocaine (ShA and LgA, respectively) intake. In cocaine-na\uefve animals, SERT removal led to reduced baseline Hb mRNA levels of critical determinants of glutamate transmission, such as SLC1A2, the main glutamate transporter and N-methyl-D-aspartate (Grin1, Grin2A and Grin2B) as well as \u3b1-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic acid (Gria1 and Gria2) receptor subunits, with no changes in the scaffolding protein Dlg4. In response to ShA and LgA cocaine intake, SLC1A2 and Grin1 mRNA levels decreased in SERT+/+ rats to levels equal of those of SERT-/- rats. Our data reveal that increased extracellular levels of 5-HT modulate glutamate neurotransmission in the Hb, serving as critical neurobiological substrate for vulnerability to cocaine addiction

Differential Effect of LPS on Glucose, Lactate and Inflammatory Markers in the Lungs of Normal and Diabetic Mice

Elevation of blood glucose results in increased glucose in the fluid that lines the surface of the airways and this is associated with an increased susceptibility to infection with respiratory pathogens. Infection induces an inflammatory response in the lung, but how this is altered by hyperglycemia and how this affects glucose, lactate and cytokine concentrations in the airway surface liquid is not understood. We used Wild Type (WT) and glucokinase heterozygote (GK+/-) mice to investigate the effect of hyperglycemia, with and without LPS-induced inflammatory responses, on airway glucose, lactate, inflammatory cells and cytokines measured in Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid (BALF). We found that glucose and lactate concentrations in BALF were elevated in GK+/-compared to WT mice and that there was a direct correlation between blood glucose and BALF glucose concentrations. LPS challenge increased BALF inflammatory cell numbers and this correlated with decreased glucose and increased lactate concentrations although the effect was less in GK+/- compared to WT mice. All cytokines measured (except IL-2) increased in BALF with LPS challenge. However, concentrations of TNFa, INFg, IL-1band IL-2 were less in GK+/- compared to WT mice. This study shows that the normal glucose/lactate environment of the airway surface liquid is altered by hyperglycemia and the inflammatory response. These data indicate that inflammatory cells utilize BALF glucose and that production of lactate and cytokines is compromised in hyperglycemic GK+/-mice

A Distinct Layer of the Medulla Integrates Sky Compass Signals in the Brain of an Insect

Mass migration of desert locusts is a common phenomenon in North Africa and the Middle East but how these insects navigate is still poorly understood. Laboratory studies suggest that locusts are able to exploit the sky polarization pattern as a navigational cue. Like other insects locusts detect polarized light through a specialized dorsal rim area (DRA) of the eye. Polarization signals are transmitted through the optic lobe to the anterior optic tubercle (AOTu) and, finally, to the central complex in the brain. Whereas neurons of the AOTu integrate sky polarization and chromatic cues in a daytime dependent manner, the central complex holds a topographic representation of azimuthal directions suggesting a role as an internal sky compass. To understand further the integration of sky compass cues we studied polarization-sensitive (POL) neurons in the medulla that may be intercalated between DRA photoreceptors and AOTu neurons. Five types of POL-neuron were characterized and four of these in multiple recordings. All neurons had wide arborizations in medulla layer 4 and most, additionally, in the dorsal rim area of the medulla and in the accessory medulla, the presumed circadian clock. The neurons showed type-specific orientational tuning to zenithal polarized light and azimuth tuning to unpolarized green and UV light spots. In contrast to neurons of the AOTu, we found no evidence for color opponency and daytime dependent adjustment of sky compass signals. Therefore, medulla layer 4 is a distinct stage in the integration of sky compass signals that precedes the time-compensated integration of celestial cues in the AOTu

Why We Can No Longer Ignore Consecutive Disasters

In recent decades, a striking number of countries have suffered from consecutive disasters: events whose impacts overlap both spatially and temporally, while recovery is still under way. The risk of consecutive disasters will increase due to growing exposure, the interconnectedness of human society, and the increased frequency and intensity of nontectonic hazard. This paper provides an overview of the different types of consecutive disasters, their causes, and impacts. The impacts can be distinctly different from disasters occurring in isolation (both spatially and temporally) from other disasters, noting that full isolation never occurs. We use existing empirical disaster databases to show the global probabilistic occurrence for selected hazard types. Current state‐of‐the art risk assessment models and their outputs do not allow for a thorough representation and analysis of consecutive disasters. This is mainly due to the many challenges that are introduced by addressing and combining hazards of different nature, and accounting for their interactions and dynamics. Disaster risk management needs to be more holistic and codesigned between researchers, policy makers, first responders, and companies

Factors Affecting the Clinical Measurement of Visuo-Spatial Neglect

The present study examined a battery of tests to evaluate unilateral spatial neglect; the tests included different tasks involving several modalities of spatial exploration mapping perceptual, motor, attentional and personal or extrapersonal space dimensions. The subjects, 121 right-brain-damaged patients with unilateral neglect, were studied in seven laboratories in four European countries. Relationships among the various tests were examined by correlations, a cluster analysis and by an analysis of individual cases. Different sensitivity was found among various tests for detecting neglect performances. Both the cluster analysis and the single case analysis clearly showed a segregation between personal and extrapersonal neglect. Analysis of the large cluster, including a variety of tests of extra personal neglect, together with the study of single cases, suggests the possibility of differentiating the various manifestations of spatial neglect which can be interpreted on the basis of the descriptions of other individual cases previously reported in the literature. Finally, the present study indicated the relative stability of neglect following the acute phase and its independence from age

Competition-based model of pheromone component ratio detection in the moth

For some moth species, especially those closely interrelated and sympatric, recognizing a specific pheromone component concentration ratio is essential for males to successfully locate conspecific females. We propose and determine the properties of a minimalist competition-based feed-forward neuronal model capable of detecting a certain ratio of pheromone components independently of overall concentration. This model represents an elementary recognition unit for the ratio of binary mixtures which we propose is entirely contained in the macroglomerular complex (MGC) of the male moth. A set of such units, along with projection neurons (PNs), can provide the input to higher brain centres. We found that (1) accuracy is mainly achieved by maintaining a certain ratio of connection strengths between olfactory receptor neurons (ORN) and local neurons (LN), much less by properties of the interconnections between the competing LNs proper. An exception to this rule is that it is beneficial if connections between generalist LNs (i.e. excited by either pheromone component) and specialist LNs (i.e. excited by one component only) have the same strength as the reciprocal specialist to generalist connections. (2) successful ratio recognition is achieved using latency-to-first-spike in the LN populations which, in contrast to expectations with a population rate code, leads to a broadening of responses for higher overall concentrations consistent with experimental observations. (3) when longer durations of the competition between LNs were observed it did not lead to higher recognition accuracy

Early life adversity and serotonin transporter gene variation interact at the level of the adrenal gland to affect the adult hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal axis

The short allelic variant of the serotonin transporter (5-HTT) promoter-linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR) has been associated with the etiology of major depression by interaction with early life stress (ELS). Furthermore, 5-HTTLPR has been associated with abnormal functioning of the stress-responsive hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. Here, we examined if, and at what level, the HPA-axis is affected in an animal model for ELS × 5-HTTLPR interactions. Heterozygous and homozygous 5-HTT knockout rats and their wild-type littermates were exposed daily at postnatal days 2–14 to 3 h of maternal separation. When grown to adulthood, plasma levels of adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), and the major rat glucocorticoid, corticosterone (CORT), were measured. Furthermore, the gene expression of key HPA-axis players at the level of the hypothalamus, pituitary and adrenal glands was assessed. No 5-HTT genotype × ELS interaction effects on gene expression were observed at the level of the hypothalamus or pituitary. However, we found significant 5-HTT genotype × ELS interaction effects for plasma CORT levels and adrenal mRNA levels of the ACTH receptor, such that 5-HTT deficiency was associated under control conditions with increased, but after ELS with decreased basal HPA-axis activity. With the use of an in vitro adrenal assay, naïve 5-HTT knockout rats were furthermore shown to display increased adrenal ACTH sensitivity. Therefore, we conclude that basal HPA-axis activity is affected by the interaction of 5- HTT genotype and ELS, and is programmed, within the axis itself, predominantly at the level of the adrenal gland. This study therefore emphasizes the importance of the adrenal gland for HPA-related psychiatric disorders