Modelling the economic efficiency of using different strategies to control Porcine Reproductive & Respiratory Syndrome at herd level

PRRS is among the diseases with the highest economic impact in pig production worldwide. Different strategies have been developed and applied to combat PRRS at farm level. The broad variety of available intervention strategies makes it difficult to decide on the most cost-efficient strategy for a given farm situation, as it depends on many farm-individual factors like disease severity, prices or farm structure. Aim of this study was to create a simulation tool to estimate the cost-efficiency of different control strategies at individual farm level. Baseline is a model that estimates the costs of PRRS, based on changes in health and productivity, in a specific farm setting (e.g. farm type, herd size, type of batch farrowing). The model evaluates different intervention scenarios: depopulation/repopulation (D/R), close & roll-over (C&R), mass vaccination of sows (MS), mass vaccination of sows and vaccination of piglets (MS + piglets), improvements in internal biosecurity (BSM), and combinations of vaccinations with BSM. Data on improvement in health and productivity parameters for each intervention were obtained through literature review and from expert opinions. The economic efficiency of the different strategies was assessed over 5 years through investment appraisals: the resulting expected value (EV) indicated the most cost-effective strategy. Calculations were performed for 5 example scenarios with varying farm type (farrow-to-finish – breeding herd), disease severity (slightly – moderately – severely affected) and PRRSV detection (yes – no). The assumed herd size was 1000 sows with farm and price structure as commonly found in Germany. In a moderately affected (moderate deviations in health and productivity parameters from what could be expected in an average negative herd), unstable farrow-to-finish herd, the most cost-efficient strategies according to their median EV were C&R (€1′126′807) and MS + piglets (€ 1′114′649). In a slightly affected farrow-to-finish herd, no virus detected, the highest median EV was for MS + piglets (€ 721′745) and MS (€ 664′111). Results indicate that the expected benefits of interventions and the most efficient strategy depend on the individual farm situation, e.g. disease severity. The model provides new insights regarding the cost-efficiency of various PRRSV intervention strategies at farm level. It is a valuable tool for farmers and veterinarians to estimate expected economic consequences of an intervention for a specific farm setting and thus enables a better informed decision

Window Characterization at 1550 nm

Author Institution: Los Alamos National LaboratoryAuthor Institution: Sandia National LaboratoriesSlides presented at the Heterodyne Velocimeter Workshop held at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, July 20-21, 2006

Cost of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus at individual farm level – An economic disease model

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is reported to be among the diseases with the highest economic impact in modern pig production worldwide. Yet, the economic impact of the disease at farm level is not well understood as, especially in endemically infected pig herds, losses are often not obvious. It is therefore difficult for farmers and veterinarians to appraise whether control measures such as virus elimination or vaccination will be economically beneficial for their farm. Thus, aim of this study was to develop an epidemiological and economic model to determine the costs of PRRS for an individual pig farm. In a production model that simulates farm outputs, depending on farm type, farrowing rhythm or length of suckling period, an epidemiological model was integrated. In this, the impact of PRRS infection on health and productivity was estimated. Financial losses were calculated in a gross margin analysis and a partial budget analysis based on the changes in health and production parameters assumed for different PRRS disease severities. Data on the effects of endemic infection on reproductive performance, morbidity and mortality, daily weight gain, feed efficiency and treatment costs were obtained from literature and expert opinion. Nine different disease scenarios were calculated, in which a farrow-to-finish farm (1000 sows) was slightly, moderately or severely affected by PRRS, based on changes in health and production parameters, and either in breeding, in nursery and fattening or in all three stages together. Annual losses ranged from a median of € 75′724 (90% confidence interval (C.I.): € 78′885–€ 122′946), if the farm was slightly affected in nursery and fattening, to a median of € 650′090 (90% C.I. € 603′585–€ 698′379), if the farm was severely affected in all stages. Overall losses were slightly higher if breeding was affected than if nursery and fattening were affected. In a herd moderately affected in all stages, median losses in breeding were € 46′021 and € 422′387 in fattening, whereas costs were € 25′435 lower in nursery, compared with a PRRSV-negative farm. The model is a valuable decision-support tool for farmers and veterinarians if a farm is proven to be affected by PRRS (confirmed by laboratory diagnosis). The output can help to understand the need for interventions in case of significant impact on the profitability of their enterprise. The model can support veterinarians in their communication to farmers in cases where costly disease control measures are justified

Quantitative Risk from Fluoroquinolone-Resistant Salmonella and Campylobacter Due to Treatment of Dairy Heifers with Enrofloxacin for Bovine Respiratory Disease

The objective of this study was to evaluate the human health impact of using fluoroquinolones to treat bovine respiratory disease (BRD) in dairy heifers less than 20 months of age. Specifically, this study quantified the probability of persistent symptoms in humans treated with a fluoroquinolone, for a fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter, Salmonella, or multidrug-resistant (MDR) Salmonella infection acquired following the consumption of ground beef. To comply with a Food and Drug Administration requirement for approval of enrofloxacin use in dairy heifers, a binomial event tree was constructed following Food and Drug Administration guidance 152. Release was estimated from the slaughter of dairy cattle carrying fluoroquinolone-resistant bacteria attributed to the proposed use in dairy heifers. For exposure, human foodborne exposure to Campylobacter, Salmonella, and MDR Salmonella after consumption of ground beef was estimated. The consequence assessment included illness, fluoroquinolone treatment, and persistent symptoms in patients treated with a fluoroquinolone. Using best available data to estimate the parameters and probabilities of each event, stochastic simulation was used to represent uncertainty and variability in many of the parameters. A scenario analysis was performed to evaluate the uncertainty of the following parameters: (1) probability of resistance development in treated animals, (2) portion of illnesses attributable to ground beef, and (3) probability of persistent symptoms in patients 18 years of age and over treated with a fluoroquinolone. The population at risk was restricted to people 18 years of age and over, as fluoroquinolones are not labeled for treatment of gastroenteritis in children. The mean annual increased risk of cases in the U.S. population (18 years of age and over) where compromised fluoroquinolone treatment resulted in persistent symptoms was estimated to be 1 in 61 billion (one case every 293 years) for Salmonella, 1 in 33 billion (one case every 158 years) for MDR Salmonella, and 1 in 2.8 billion (one case every 13 years) for Campylobacter

Flexible Power Modeling of LTE Base Stations

With the explosion of wireless communications in number of users and data rates, the reduction of network power consumption becomes more and more critical. This is especially true for base stations which represent a dominant share of the total power in cellular networks. In order to study power reduction techniques, a convenient power model is required, providing estimates of the power consumption in different scenarios. This paper proposes such a model, accurate but simple to use. It evaluates the base station power consumption for different types of cells supporting the 3GPP LTE standard. It is flexible enough to enable comparisons between state-of-the-art and advanced configurations, and an easy adaptation to various scenarios. The model is based on a combination of base station components and sub-components as well as power scaling rules as functions of the main system parameters

Development of an artificial foot enabling the simulation of the natural behaviour of the human unroll of the foot during walking and running

From 3rd Congress of the International Foot and Ankle Biomechanics Community Sydney, Australia. 11-13 April 201

Проблемы процесса управления в техносферной безопасности

В статье будет рассмотрены проблемы техносферной безопасности через интеграционный подход, как самый эффективный в сфере управления природопользования. Самые важные проблемы будут обобщены в вопросах государственного регулирования, также будут выявлены факторы влияния на эффективность управления данного процесса

20th Annual UD International Tea Scheduled

News release announces the 20th Annual International Tea at the University of Dayton with the theme Where In The World Are You

Window Effects in PDV Measurements

Author Institution: Sandia National LaboratoriesAuthor Institution: Lawrence Livermore National LaboratorySlides presented at the Heterodyne Velocimeter Workshop held at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, July 20-21, 2006