The Gauteng conservation plan : planning for biodiversity in a rapidly urbanising province

BACKGROUND : Gauteng, the smallest of South Africa’s nine provinces, is rich in biodiversity; yet it is also the most densely populated province and thus faces significant development pressures. OBJECTIVE : A project was therefore initiated in 2001 to identify areas of biodiversity importance in the province, using the systematic spatial biodiversity planning approach that has been adopted in South Africa. This article reports on the final version of the provincial conservation plan as completed in 2011. METHOD : Vegetation types and quaternary catchments constituted the coarse filter biodiversity features, while rare and threatened taxa constituted the fine filter features. Ecological processes were captured by a range of landscape features, while planning for climate change primarily involved the design of a corridor network. Planning was undertaken within the ArcView linked C-plan decision support system, where a cost surface preferentially directed the selection of available sites towards low-cost areas. RESULTS : Forty-four per cent of the province is required to achieve targets. Only 8% of features are close to having their targets met or are adequately conserved in the current protected area network of 23 protected areas covering 2.4% of the province, while 73% of features are absent or poorly represented. CONCLUSION : The existing protected area network is inadequate for the conservation of biodiversity in Gauteng. The Gauteng Conservation Plan identifies a set of areas that are required to achieve conservation targets. It is important that identified areas currently not in the protected area network are protected either formally or through legislated land use management processes.http://www.abcjournal.orgam2018Zoology and Entomolog

Using changes in agricultural utility to quantify future climate-induced risk to conservation

Much of the biodiversity-related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop-climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near-term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology

Predicting how adaptation to climate change could affect ecological conservation: Secondary impacts of shifting agricultural suitability

Aim: Ecosystems face numerous well-documented threats from climate change. The well-being of people also is threatened by climate change, most prominently by reduced food security. Human adaptation to food scarcity, including shifting agricultural zones, will create new threats for natural ecosystems. We investigated how shifts in crop suitability because of climate change may overlap currently protected areas (PAs) and priority sites for PA expansion in South Africa. Predicting the locations of suitable climate conditions for crop growth will assist conservationists and decision-makers in planning for climate change. Location: South Africa. Methods: We modelled climatic suitability in 2055 for maize and wheat cultivation, two extensively planted, staple crops, and overlaid projected changes with PAs and PA expansion priorities. Results: Changes in winter climate could make an additional 2millionha of land suitable for wheat cultivation, while changes in summer climate could expand maize suitability by up to 3.5millionha. Conversely, 3millionha of lands currently suitable for wheat production are predicted to become climatically unsuitable, along with 13millionha for maize. At least 328 of 834 (39%) PAs are projected to be affected by altered wheat or maize suitability in their buffer zones. Main conclusions: Reduced crop suitability and food scarcity in subsistence areas may lead to the exploitation of PAs for food and fuel. However, if reduced crop suitability leads to agricultural abandonment, this may afford opportunities for ecological restoration. Expanded crop suitability in PA buffer zones could lead to additional isolation of PAs if portions of newly suitable land are converted to agriculture. These results suggest that altered crop suitability will be widespread throughout South Africa, including within and around lands identified as conservation priorities. Assessing how climate change will affect crop suitability near PAs is a first step towards proactively identifying potential conflicts between human adaptation and conservation planning. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

The Gauteng Conservation Plan: Planning for biodiversity in a rapidly urbanising province

Background: Gauteng, the smallest of South Africa’s nine provinces, is rich in biodiversity; yet it is also the most densely populated province and thus faces significant development pressures. Objective: A project was therefore initiated in 2001 to identify areas of biodiversity importance in the province, using the systematic spatial biodiversity planning approach that has been adopted in South Africa. This article reports on the final version of the provincial conservation plan as completed in 2011. Method: Vegetation types and quaternary catchments constituted the coarse filter biodiversity features, while rare and threatened taxa constituted the fine filter features. Ecological processes were captured by a range of landscape features, while planning for climate change primarily involved the design of a corridor network. Planning was undertaken within the ArcView linked C-plan decision support system, where a cost surface preferentially directed the selection of available sites towards low-cost areas. Results: Forty-four per cent of the province is required to achieve targets. Only 8% of features are close to having their targets met or are adequately conserved in the current protected area network of 23 protected areas covering 2.4% of the province, while 73% of features are absent or poorly represented. Conclusion: The existing protected area network is inadequate for the conservation of biodiversity in Gauteng. The Gauteng Conservation Plan identifies a set of areas that are required to achieve conservation targets. It is important that identified areas currently not in the protected area network are protected either formally or through legislated land use management processes