A Concept of Bayesian Regulation in Fisheries Management

Peer reviewe

Short-term prediction and harvest control rules for Baltic cod (Gadus morhua): A generic method to include state of the art knowledge on environmental uncertainty and its consequences – would it make a difference for advice?

Vital processes relevant for exploited stocks, for example growth, predation and recruitment are closely related to the environmental conditions. Here, we present a generic method to include state of the art knowledge on environmental impacts and environmental forecasting into short-term predictions and the formulation of environment-based harvest control rules for exploited stocks. The method consists of three elements: First, the linkage between environmental parameters and stock dynamics, second the short-term prediction of both environment and stock dynamics, and third the scaling of otherwise constant reference values for fishing mortality in accordance with the environmental situation. The method is exemplified for Eastern Baltic cod. Recruitment is treated as dependent on oxygen conditions, and the formulation of the proposed fishing intensity is accounting for the actual oxygen conditions and predicted conditions for the year following the assessment year. Finally, the resulting advice is compared to advice that has been given not accounting for the oxygen conditions

Food for Thought : Eastern Baltic cod in distress: biological changes and challenges for stock assessment

The eastern Baltic (EB) cod (Gadus morhua) stock was depleted and overexploited for decades until the mid-2000s, when fishing mortality rapidly declined and biomass started to increase, as shown by stock assessments. These positive developments were partly assigned to effective management measures, and the EB cod was considered one of the most successful stock recoveries in recent times. In contrast to this optimistic view, the analytical stock assessment failed in 2014, leaving the present stock status unclear. Deteriorated quality of some basic input data for stock assessment in combination with changes in environmental and ecological conditions has led to an unusual situation for cod in the Baltic Sea, which poses new challenges for stock assessment and management advice. A number of adverse developments such as low nutritional condition and disappearance of larger individuals indicate that the stock is in distress. In this study, we (i) summarize the knowledge of recent changes in cod biology and ecosystem conditions, (ii) describe the subsequent challenges for stock assessment, and (iii) highlight the key questions where answers are urgently needed to understand the present stock status and provide scientifically solid support for cod management in the Baltic Sea

SPHAERALCEA CAESPITOSA VAR. WILLIAMSIAE, VAR. NOV. (MALVACEAE)

Volume: 20Start Page: 47End Page: 5

A NEW SPECIES OF PRIMROSE FROM NEVADA

Volume: 19Start Page: 27End Page: 2

Utah, 1961, [numbers 9408-9474].

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Cirsium eatonii var. viperinum D.J. Keil

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