Cost-effectiveness modelling of telehealth for patients with raised cardiovascular disease risk: evidence from a cohort simulation conducted alongside the Healthlines randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the long-term cost-effectiveness (measured as the ratio of incremental NHS cost to incremental quality-adjusted life years) of a telehealth intervention for patients with raised cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. DESIGN: A cohort simulation model developed as part of the economic evaluation conducted alongside the Healthlines randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Patients recruited through primary care, and intervention delivered via telehealth service. PARTICIPANTS: Participants with a 10-year CVD risk ≥20%, as measured by the QRISK2 algorithm, and with at least 1 modifiable risk factor, individually randomised from 42 general practices in England. INTERVENTION: A telehealth service delivered over a 12-month period. The intervention involved a series of responsive, theory-led encounters between patients and trained health information advisors who provided access to information resources and supported medication adherence and coordination of care. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost-effectiveness measured by net monetary benefit over the simulated lifetime of trial participants from a UK National Health Service perspective. RESULTS: The probability that the intervention was cost-effective depended on the duration of the effect of the intervention. The intervention was cost-effective with high probability if effects persisted over the lifetime of intervention recipients. The probability of cost-effectiveness was lower for shorter durations of effect. CONCLUSIONS: The intervention was likely to be cost-effective under a lifetime perspective. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN27508731; Results

Do home modifications reduce care home admissions for older people? A matched control evaluation of the Care & Repair Cymru service in Wales

Background: home advice and modification interventions aim to promote independent living for those living in the community, but quantitative evidence of their effectiveness is limited. Aim: assess the risk of care home admissions for people with different frailty levels receiving home advice and modification interventions against a control group who do not. Study design and setting: matched control evaluation using linked longitudinal data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank, comprising people aged 60–95, registered with a SAIL contributing general practice. The intervention group received the Care & Repair Cymru (C & RC) service, a home advice and modification service available to residents in Wales. Methods: frailty, age and gender were used in propensity score matching to assess the Hazard Ratio (HR) of care home admissions within a 1-, 3- and 5-year period for the intervention group (N = 93,863) compared to a matched control group (N = 93,863). Kaplan–Meier curves were used to investigate time to a care home admission. Results: the intervention group had an increased risk of a care home admission at 1-, 3- and 5-years [HR (95%CI)] for those classified as fit [1-year: 2.02 (1.73, 2.36), 3-years: 1.87 (1.72, 2.04), 5-years: 1.99 (1.86, 2.13)] and mildly frail [1-year: 1.25 (1.09, 1.42), 3-years: 1.25 (1.17, 1.34), 5-years: 1.30 (1.23, 1.38)], but a reduced risk of care home admission for moderately [1-year: 0.66 (0.58, 0.75), 3-years: 0.75 (0.70, 0.80), 5-years: 0.83 (0.78, 0.88)] and severely frail individuals [1-year: 0.44 (0.37, 0.54), 3-years: 0.54 (0.49, 0.60), 5-years: 0.60(0.55, 0.66)]. Conclusions: HRs indicated that the C & RC service helped to prevent care home admissions for moderately and severely frail individuals. The HRs generally increased with follow-up duration

Psychological advocacy towards healing (PATH): A randomized controlled trial of a psychological intervention in a domestic violence service setting

Background Experience of domestic violence and abuse (DVA) is associated with mental illness. Advocacy has little effect on mental health outcomes of female DVA survivors and there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of psychological interventions for this population. Objective To test effectiveness of a psychological intervention delivered by advocates to DVA survivors. Design, masking, setting, participants Pragmatic parallel group individually randomized controlled trial of normal DVA advocacy vs. advocacy + psychological intervention. Statistician and researchers blinded to group assignment. Setting: specialist DVA agencies; two UK cities. Participants: Women aged 16 years and older accessing DVA services. Intervention Eight specialist psychological advocacy (SPA) sessions with two follow up sessions. Measurements Primary outcomes at 12 months: depression symptoms (PHQ-9) and psychological distress (CORE-OM). Primary analysis: intention to treat linear (logistic) regression model for continuous (binary) outcomes. Results 263 women recruited (78 in shelter/refuge, 185 in community), 2 withdrew (1 community, control group; 1 intervention, refuge group), 1 was excluded from the study for protocol violation (community, control group), 130 in intervention and 130 in control groups. Recruitment ended June 2013. 12-month follow up: 64%. At 12-month follow up greater improvement in mental health of women in the intervention group. Difference in average CORE-OM score between intervention and control groups: -3.3 points (95% CI -5.5 to -1.2). Difference in average PHQ-9 score between intervention and control group: -2.2 (95% CI -4.1 to -0.3). At 12 months, 35% of the intervention group and 55% of the control group were above the CORE-OM -2clinical threshold (OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.64); 29% of the intervention group and 46% of the control group were above the PHQ-9 clinical threshold (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.81). Limitations 64% retention at 12 months Conclusions An eight-session psychological intervention delivered by DVA advocates produced clinically relevant improvement in mental health outcomes compared with normal advocacy care. Trial registration ISRCTN registry ISRCTN58561170 Original Research 3675/375

Do home adaptation interventions help to reduce emergency fall admissions? A national longitudinal data-linkage study of 657,536 older adults living in Wales (UK) between 2010 and 2017

Backgroundfalls are common in older people, but evidence for the effectiveness of preventative home adaptations is limited.Aimdetermine whether a national home adaptation service, Care&Repair Cymru (C&RC), identified individuals at risk of falls occurring at home and reduced the likelihood of falls.Study Designretrospective longitudinal controlled non-randomised intervention cohort study.Settingour cohort consisted of 657,536 individuals aged 60+ living in Wales (UK) between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2017. About 123,729 individuals received a home adaptation service.Methodswe created a dataset with up to 41 quarterly observations per person. For each quarter, we observed if a fall occurred at home that resulted in either an emergency department or an emergency hospital admission. We analysed the data using multilevel logistic regression.Resultscompared to the control group, C&RC clients had higher odds of falling, with an odds ratio (OR [95% confidence interval]) of 1.93 [1.87, 2.00]. Falls odds was higher for females (1.44 [1.42, 1.46]), older age (1.07 [1.07, 1.07]), increased frailty (mild 1.57 [1.55, 1.60], moderate 2.31 [2.26, 2.35], severe 3.05 [2.96, 3.13]), and deprivation (most deprived compared to least: 1.16 [1.13, 1.19]). Client fall odds decreased post-intervention; OR 0.97 [0.96, 0.97] per quarter. Regional variation existed for falls (5.8%), with most variation at the individual level (31.3%).ConclusionsC&RC identified people more likely to have an emergency fall admission occurring at home, and their service reduced the odds of falling post-intervention. Service provisioning should meet the needs of an individual and need varies by personal and regional circumstance

Hardness characterisation of grey cast iron and its tribological performance in a contact lubricated with soybean oil

The effect of hardness of grey cast iron flat specimen on its wear and friction on the contact were characterised with the presence of vegetable oil as biolubricant. Prior to the tribological test, the as - received grey cast iron flat specimen hardness was characterised. Friction and wear tests were then conducted using a ball - on - flat reciprocating sliding contact. The one - way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine the significance of friction and wear data with a 95% significance level. The wear scars after the test were then characterised by surface roughness and wear mechanism. The microstructure and elemental analysis we re also reported. The average value of hardness was 210 HV with a large difference between minimum (185 HV) and maximum (250 HV) values. The friction and wear performance of grey cast iron specimens with soybean oil varied with its hardness. The specimens with higher hardness gave lower friction coefficient and greater wear resistance than the lower hardness specimens. The difference in coefficient of friction produced between high hardness specimens (COF = 0.122) and low hardness specimens (COF = 0.140) wa s 17%. In terms of mass loss, the low hardness 2 specimens (mass loss = 50.38 mg) and the high hardness specimens (mass loss = 12.90 mg) produced a difference of 74%. It is shown that, with soybean oil lubricant, the grey cast iron specimen can produce wide range of tribological data especially on mass loss due to its hardness distribution. The influence of soybean oil lubrication in this work is less in improving the wear resistance (about 7%), but greater for friction reduction (about 24%) compared to an un lubricated grey cast iron surface. The hardness of grey cast iron specimen is an important parameter that needs to be specifically measured and controlled on the contact due to wide hardness distribution of grey cast iron may produce variation in tribologi cal data

The impact of COVID-19 on adjusted mortality risk in care homes for older adults inWales, UK: A retrospective population-based cohort study for mortality in 2016-2020

Supplementary data are available online at: https://academic.oup.com/ageing/article/50/1/25/5908996#supplementary-data .Copyright © The Author(s) 2020. Background: mortality in care homes has had a prominent focus during the COVID-19 outbreak. Care homes are particularly vulnerable to the spread of infectious diseases, which may lead to increased mortality risk. Multiple and interconnected challenges face the care home sector in the prevention and management of outbreaks of COVID-19, including adequate supply of personal protective equipment, staff shortages and insufficient or lack of timely COVID-19 testing. Aim: to analyse the mortality of older care home residents in Wales during COVID-19 lockdown and compare this across the population of Wales and the previous 4 years. Study Design and Setting: we used anonymised electronic health records and administrative data from the secure anonymised information linkage databank to create a cross-sectional cohort study. We anonymously linked data for Welsh residents to mortality data up to the 14th June 2020. Methods: we calculated survival curves and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of mortality. We adjusted HRs for age, gender, social economic status and prior health conditions. Results: survival curves show an increased proportion of deaths between 23rd March and 14th June 2020 in care homes for older people, with an adjusted HR of 1.72 (1.55, 1.90) compared with 2016. Compared with the general population in 2016–2019, adjusted care home mortality HRs for older adults rose from 2.15 (2.11, 2.20) in 2016–2019 to 2.94 (2.81, 3.08) in 2020. Conclusions: the survival curves and increased HRs show a significantly increased risk of death in the 2020 study periods.This work was supported by Health and Care research Wales [Project: SCF-18-1,504]; and Health Data Research UK [NIWA1] which receives its funding from HDR UK Ltd funded by the UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation (BHF) and the Wellcome Trust. This research has also been supported by the ADR Wales programme of work. The ADR Wales programme of work is aligned to the priority themes as identified in the Welsh Government’s national strategy: Prosperity for All. ADR Wales brings together data science experts at Swansea University Medical School, staff from the Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research, Data and Methods (WISERD) at Cardiff University and specialist teams within the Welsh Government to develop new evidence which supports Prosperity for All by using the SAIL Databank at Swansea University, to link and analyse anonymised data. ADR Wales is part of the Economic and Social Research Council (part of UK Research and Innovation) funded ADR UK (grant ES/S007393/1)

Management of multimorbidity using a patient-centred care model:a pragmatic cluster-randomised trial of the 3D approach

Background: The management of people with multiple chronic conditions challenges health-care systems designed around single conditions. There is international consensus that care for multimorbidity should be patient-centred, focus on quality of life, and promote self-management towards agreed goals. However, there is little evidence about the effectiveness of this approach. Our hypothesis was that the patient-centred, so-called 3D approach (based on dimensions of health, depression, and drugs) for patients with multimorbidity would improve their health-related quality of life, which is the ultimate aim of the 3D intervention. Methods: We did this pragmatic cluster-randomised trial in general practices in England and Scotland. Practices were randomly allocated to continue usual care (17 practices) or to provide 6-monthly comprehensive 3D reviews, incorporating patient-centred strategies that reflected international consensus on best care (16 practices). Randomisation was computer-generated, stratified by area, and minimised by practice deprivation and list size. Adults with three or more chronic conditions were recruited. The primary outcome was quality of life (assessed with EQ-5D-5L) after 15 months' follow-up. Participants were not masked to group assignment, but analysis of outcomes was blinded. We analysed the primary outcome in the intention-to-treat population, with missing data being multiply imputed. This trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN06180958. Findings: Between May 20, 2015, and Dec 31, 2015, we recruited 1546 patients from 33 practices and randomly assigned them to receive the intervention (n=797) or usual care (n=749). In our intention-to-treat analysis, there was no difference between trial groups in the primary outcome of quality of life (adjusted difference in mean EQ-5D-5L 0·00, 95% CI −0·02 to 0·02; p=0·93). 78 patients died, and the deaths were not considered as related to the intervention. Interpretation: To our knowledge, this trial is the largest investigation of the international consensus about optimal management of multimorbidity. The 3D intervention did not improve patients' quality of life. Funding: National Institute for Health Research

Can oral corticosteroids reduce the severity or duration of an acute cough, and the associated National Health Service and societal costs, in adults presenting to primary care?: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Acute lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) is one of the most common conditions managed internationally and is costly to health services and patients. Despite good evidence that antibiotics are not effective for improving the symptoms of uncomplicated LRTI, they are widely prescribed, contributing to antimicrobial resistance. Many of the symptoms observed in LRTI are mediated by inflammatory processes also observed in exacerbations of asthma, for which there is strong evidence of corticosteroid effectiveness. The primary aim of the OSAC (Oral Steroids for Acute Cough) Trial is to determine whether oral prednisolone (40 mg daily for 5 days) can reduce the duration of moderately bad (or worse) cough and the severity of all its associated symptoms on days 2 to 4 post-randomisation (day 1 is trial entry) by at least 20% in adults ≥18 years with acute LRTI presenting to primary care. Methods/design: OSAC is a two-arm, multi-centre, placebo-controlled, randomised superiority trial. The target sample size is 436 patients, which allows for a 20% dropout rate. Patients will be recruited from primary care sites (General Practitioner surgeries) across England and followed up until symptom resolution. The two primary clinical outcomes are the duration of moderately bad (or worse) cough, and the severity of all its associated symptoms on days 2 to 4 post-randomisation. Secondary outcomes include: antibiotic consumption; symptom burden; adverse events; participant satisfaction with treatment and intention to consult for future similar illnesses. A parallel economic evaluation will investigate the cost-effectiveness of the intervention. Discussion: Results from the OSAC trial will increase knowledge regarding the clinical and cost-effectiveness of corticosteroids for LRTI, and will establish the potential of a new treatment option that could substantially improve patient health. We have chosen a relatively high ‘efficacy dose’ as this will enable us to decide on the potential for further research into lower dose oral and/or inhaled corticosteroids. This trial will also contribute to a growing body of research investigating the natural course of this very common illness, as well as the effects of steroids on the undesirable inflammatory symptoms associated with infection. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN57309858 (31 January 2013)

Long-term trends in critical care admissions in Wales

As national populations age, demands on critical care services are expected to increase. In many healthcare settings, longitudinal trends indicate rising numbers and proportions of patients admitted to ICU who are older; elsewhere, including some parts of the UK, a decrease has raised concerns with regard to rationing according to age. Our aim was to investigate admission trends in Wales, where critical care capacity has not risen in the last decade. We used the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank to identify and characterise critical care admissions in patients aged ≥ 18 years from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2017. We categorised 85,629 ICU admissions as youngest (18–64 years), older (65–79 years) and oldest (≥ 80 years). The oldest group accounted for 15% of admissions, the older age group 39% and the youngest group 46%. Relative to the national population, the incidence of admission rates per 10,000 population in the oldest group decreased significantly over the study period from 91.5/10,000 in 2008 to 77.5/10,000 (a relative decrease of 15%), and among the older group from 89.2/10,000 in 2008 to 75.3/10,000 in 2017 (a relative decrease of 16%). We observed significant decreases in admissions with high comorbidity (modified Charlson comorbidity index); increases in the proportion of older patients admitted who were considered ‘fit’ rather than frail (electronic frailty index); and decreases in admissions with a medical diagnosis. In contrast to other healthcare settings, capacity constraints and surgical imperatives appear to have contributed to a relative exclusion of older patients presenting with acute medical illness