Modeling resilience and sustainability in ancient agricultural systems

The reasons why people adopt unsustainable agricultural practices, and the ultimate environmental implications of those practices, remain incompletely understood in the present world. Archaeology, however, offers unique datasets on coincident cultural and ecological change, and their social and environmental effects. This article applies concepts derived from ecological resilience thinking to assess the sustainability of agricultural practices as a result of long-term interactions between political, economic, and environmental systems. Using the urban center of Gordion, in central Turkey, as a case study, it is possible to identify mismatched social and ecological processes on temporal, spatial, and organizational scales, which help to resolve thresholds of resilience. Results of this analysis implicate temporal and spatial mismatches as a cause for local environmental degradation, and increasing extralocal economic pressures as an ultimate cause for the adoption of unsustainable land-use practices. This analysis suggests that a research approach that integrates environmental archaeology with a resilience perspective has considerable potential for explicating regional patterns of agricultural change and environmental degradation in the past

Can forest management based on natural disturbances maintain ecological resilience?

Given the increasingly global stresses on forests, many ecologists argue that managers must maintain ecological resilience: the capacity of ecosystems to absorb disturbances without undergoing fundamental change. In this review we ask: Can the emerging paradigm of natural-disturbance-based management (NDBM) maintain ecological resilience in managed forests? Applying resilience theory requires careful articulation of the ecosystem state under consideration, the disturbances and stresses that affect the persistence of possible alternative states, and the spatial and temporal scales of management relevance. Implementing NDBM while maintaining resilience means recognizing that (i) biodiversity is important for long-term ecosystem persistence, (ii) natural disturbances play a critical role as a generator of structural and compositional heterogeneity at multiple scales, and (iii) traditional management tends to produce forests more homogeneous than those disturbed naturally and increases the likelihood of unexpected catastrophic change by constraining variation of key environmental processes. NDBM may maintain resilience if silvicultural strategies retain the structures and processes that perpetuate desired states while reducing those that enhance resilience of undesirable states. Such strategies require an understanding of harvesting impacts on slow ecosystem processes, such as seed-bank or nutrient dynamics, which in the long term can lead to ecological surprises by altering the forest's capacity to reorganize after disturbance

Introduction: resilience and the Anthropocene: the stakes of ‘renaturalising’ politics

The Anthropocene marks a new geological epoch in which human activity (and specifically Western production and consumption practices) has become a geological force. It also profoundly destabilizes the grounds of Western political philosophy. Visions of a dynamic earth system wholly indifferent to human survival liquefy modernity’s division between nature and politics. Critical thought has only begun to scratch the surface of the Anthropocene’s re-naturalization of politics. This special issue of Resilience: International Policies, Practices and Discourses explores the politics of resilience within the wider cultural and political moment of the Anthropocene. It is within the field of resilience thinking that the implications of the Anthropocene for forms of governance are beginning to be sketched out and experimental practices are undertaken. Foregrounding the Anthropocene imaginary’s re-naturalization of politics enables us to consider the political possibilities of resilience from a different angle, one that is irreducible to neoliberal post-political rule

The ethnoecology of Caiçara metapopulations (Atlantic Forest, Brazil): ecological concepts and questions

The Atlantic Forest is represented on the coast of Brazil by approximately 7,5% of remnants, much of these concentrated on the country's SE coast. Within these southeastern remnants, we still find the coastal Caiçaras who descend from Native Indians and Portuguese Colonizers. The maintenance of such populations, and their existence in spite of the deforestation that occurred on the Atlantic Forest coast, deserves especial attention and analysis. In this study, I address, in particular, the Caiçaras who live on the coast of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro States, illustrating with examples of coastal inhabitants from other areas, such as Bahia State (NE coast) and of other forested areas (riverine caboclos of the Amazon). The major focus of this study, based on previous research, performed since 1986 in several populations or villages of the Atlantic Forest coast, is to understand the resilience of the Caiçaras, which is analyzed using ecological concepts, such as metapopulation, resilience and adaptive cycles. The Caiçara populations are located on islands (Búzios, Comprida, Grande, Ilhabela, Jaguanum, Gipóia) and on the coast (Bertioga, Puruba, Picinguaba, among others). Information gathered about the Caiçaras regarding the economic cycles of the local regions, along with ecological, historical and economic data available, are used to understand such resilience, and are complemented with comparative examples from the Brazilian Amazon and with variables such as the local restrictions imposed by environmental governmental agencies

Interspecific variation, habitat complexity and ovipositional responses modulate the efficacy of cyclopoid copepods in disease vector control

The use of predatory biological control agents can form an effective component in the management of vectors of parasitic diseases and arboviruses. However, we require predictive methods to assess the efficacies of potential biocontrol agents under relevant environmental contexts. Here, we applied functional responses (FRs) and reproductive effort as a proxy of numerical responses (NRs) to compare the Relative Control Potential (RCP) of three cyclopoid copepods, Macrocyclops albidus, M. fuscus and Megacyclops viridis towards larvae of the mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus. The effects of habitat complexity on such predatory impacts were examined, as well as ovipositional responses of C. quinquefasciatus to copepod cues in pairwise choice tests. All three copepod species demonstrated a population destabilising Type II FR. M. albidus demonstrated the shortest handling time and highest maximum feeding rate, whilst M. fuscus exhibited the highest attack rate. The integration of reproductive effort estimations in the new RCP metric identifies M. albidus as a very promising biocontrol agent. Habitat complexity did not impact the FR form or maximum feeding rate of M. albidus, indicating that potentially population destabilising effects are robust to habitat variations; however, attack rates of M. albidus were reduced in the presence of such complexity. C. quinquefasciatus avoided ovipositing where M. albidus was physically present, however it did not avoid chemical cues alone. C. quinquefasciatus continued to avoid M. albidus during oviposition when both the treatment and control water were dyed; however, when an undyed, predator-free control was paired with dyed, predator-treated water, positive selectivity towards the treatment water was stimulated. We thus demonstrate the marked predatory potential of cyclopoid copepods, utilising our new RCP metric, and advocate their feasibility in biological control programmes targeting container-style habitats. We also show that behavioural responses of target organisms and environmental context should be considered to maximise agent efficacy

On traveling waves in lattices: The case of Riccati lattices

The method of simplest equation is applied for analysis of a class of lattices described by differential-difference equations that admit traveling-wave solutions constructed on the basis of the solution of the Riccati equation. We denote such lattices as Riccati lattices. We search for Riccati lattices within two classes of lattices: generalized Lotka - Volterra lattices and generalized Holling lattices. We show that from the class of generalized Lotka - Volterra lattices only the Wadati lattice belongs to the class of Riccati lattices. Opposite to this many lattices from the Holling class are Riccati lattices. We construct exact traveling wave solutions on the basis of the solution of Riccati equation for three members of the class of generalized Holing lattices.Comment: 17 pages, no figure

The functional response of a generalist predator

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Modelling societal transitions with agent transformation

Transition models explain long-term and large-scale processes fundamentally changing the structure of a societal system. Our concern is that most transition models are too static. Although they capture a move of focus from static equilibria to transitions between dynamic equilibria, they are still rooted in an "equilibriumist" approach. Improvement is possible with agent-based models that give attention to endogenous system processes called "transformation processes". These models can render far more dynamic pictures of societal systems in transition, and are no longer remote from descriptions in the emerging transition literature

Social interaction, noise and antibiotic-mediated switches in the intestinal microbiota

The intestinal microbiota plays important roles in digestion and resistance against entero-pathogens. As with other ecosystems, its species composition is resilient against small disturbances but strong perturbations such as antibiotics can affect the consortium dramatically. Antibiotic cessation does not necessarily restore pre-treatment conditions and disturbed microbiota are often susceptible to pathogen invasion. Here we propose a mathematical model to explain how antibiotic-mediated switches in the microbiota composition can result from simple social interactions between antibiotic-tolerant and antibiotic-sensitive bacterial groups. We build a two-species (e.g. two functional-groups) model and identify regions of domination by antibiotic-sensitive or antibiotic-tolerant bacteria, as well as a region of multistability where domination by either group is possible. Using a new framework that we derived from statistical physics, we calculate the duration of each microbiota composition state. This is shown to depend on the balance between random fluctuations in the bacterial densities and the strength of microbial interactions. The singular value decomposition of recent metagenomic data confirms our assumption of grouping microbes as antibiotic-tolerant or antibiotic-sensitive in response to a single antibiotic. Our methodology can be extended to multiple bacterial groups and thus it provides an ecological formalism to help interpret the present surge in microbiome data.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figures accepted for publication in Plos Comp Bio. Supplementary video and information availabl

Modelling and simulating change in reforesting mountain landscapes using a social-ecological framework

Natural reforestation of European mountain landscapes raises major environmental and societal issues. With local stakeholders in the Pyrenees National Park area (France), we studied agricultural landscape colonisation by ash (Fraxinus excelsior) to enlighten its impacts on biodiversity and other landscape functions of importance for the valley socio-economics. The study comprised an integrated assessment of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) since the 1950s, and a scenario analysis of alternative future policy. We combined knowledge and methods from landscape ecology, land change and agricultural sciences, and a set of coordinated field studies to capture interactions and feedback in the local landscape/land-use system. Our results elicited the hierarchically-nested relationships between social and ecological processes. Agricultural change played a preeminent role in the spatial and temporal patterns of LUCC. Landscape colonisation by ash at the parcel level of organisation was merely controlled by grassland management, and in fact depended on the farmer's land management at the whole-farm level. LUCC patterns at the landscape level depended to a great extent on interactions between farm household behaviours and the spatial arrangement of landholdings within the landscape mosaic. Our results stressed the need to represent the local SES function at a fine scale to adequately capture scenarios of change in landscape functions. These findings orientated our modelling choices in the building an agent-based model for LUCC simulation (SMASH - Spatialized Multi-Agent System of landscape colonization by ASH). We discuss our method and results with reference to topical issues in interdisciplinary research into the sustainability of multifunctional landscapes