Credit scoring: o risco de crédito e o seu impacto nos custos de financiamento - o caso português

Mestrado em Controlo de Gestão e dos NegóciosEm 2008 com o despoletar da crise financeira e, sabendo da sua conexão directa com a actividade bancária, nomeadamente no que respeita a alguns comportamentos de risco adoptados por algumas instituições, diversos estudos sobre a temática foram desenvolvidos. Nesta dissertação temos por objectivo procurar analisar a relação entre o credit score das empresas do sector não financeiro com o respectivo custo ou pricing dos financiamentos remunerados obtidos por aquelas empresas. Para tal, considerando o universo de empresas da base de dados SABI da Bureau Van Dijk, selecionámos uma amostra de empresas sujeitas a Revisão Legal de Contas, no horizonte temporal de 2010 a 2014, dividindo-as em duas sub-amostras: - uma de 31 empresas que, de 2010 a 2013 apresentavam Capitais Próprios positivos e em 2014 inferiores a zero, ou seja, que neste ano, de acordo com o IAPMEI (2013) e a OTOC (2011), eram classificadas como Falidas; - outra, emparelhada, de 54 empresas que, para o período de análise, apresentavam Capitais Próprios superiores zero, isto é, que eram classificadas como Não Falidas. À amostra foram aplicados os modelos de scoring de Altman (2002), Carvalho das Neves e Silva (1998) e Matias (1982), para posteriormente serem comparados os seus outputs com o Custo Médio do Passivo Remunerado de cada entidade. Será expectável, portanto, face às crescentes exigências preconizadas nos acordos internacionais, que as instituições financeiras façam reflectir no custo dos financiamentos as variações dos perfis de risco das empresas, analisados na presente dissertação pelo binómio score-pricing. No caso concreto da amostra e períodos em análise da presente dissertação, verificou-se que, em média, cerca de sete em cada dez empresas detém o binómio score-pricing conforme com os pressupostos teóricos.With the onset of the financial crisis in 2008 and knowing its direct connection to the banking sector, particularly regarding some risk behaviours adopted by some institutions, several studies on this subject have been developed. In this thesis, we try to analyse the relationship between the credit score of companies of the non-financial sector with its costs of interest-bearing loans taken by those companies. To do this, considering the universe of SABI from Bureau Van Dijk database, we selected a sample of companies subject to Legal Account Certification, from 2010 to 2014, dividing them into two sub-samples: - One of 31 companies that, from 2010 to 2013 showed positive Equity and in 2014 less than zero (classified as bankrupt according to IAPMEI (2013) and OTOC (2011)); - Other, paired, of 54 that present Equity upper to zero in the period of analysis (not classified as bankrupt). In the sample were applied the scoring models of Altman (2002), Carvalho das Neves and Silva (1998) and Matias (1982), later to be compared its output with the average cost of loans of each entity. Therefore, facing the growing demands advocated in international agreements, it will be expected that financial institutions to reflect in the cost of financing the changes in the risk profiles of companies. In these thesis, this behaviour is tested by score-pricing binomial. Specifically, in the sample and periods under analysis on the present dissertation, we found that, on average, seven out of ten companies hold the score-pricing binomial in accordance with the theoretical assumptions.N/

Segurança de pontes na fase construtiva

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de mestre em Engenharia CivilA construção de pontes sofreu melhoramentos ao longo do tempo, mas ainda continuam a ocorrer acidentes durante a construção. De facto, como se demonstra neste trabalho, muitos desses colapsos ocorrem na fase construtiva. Apresenta-se neste trabalho, para além de uma visão geral dos processos construtivos, uma síntese de um número significativo de acidentes ocorridos durante a construção. Enfatiza-se as lições aprendidas com esses acidentes. Apresenta-se também uma síntese das disposições constantes nos Eurocódigos relacionados com a verificação da segurança durante a construção, incluindo as ações a considerar e a sua quantificação. Por fim, é apresentado um caso de estudo no qual a segurança na fase construtiva assumiu particular importância. Acerca da ponte estudada – Ponte Internacional de Quintanilha – construída por avanços sucessivos – houve necessidade de conceber um conjunto de cabos exteriores com a finalidade de garantir a segurança face a um cenário de queda de carro de avanços e respectiva aduela.Abstract: The construction of bridges has undergone improvements over time, but the accidents still continue to occur during construction. In fact, as i tis demonstrated in this work, many of these breakdowns occur in the constructive phase. I tis presented in this work, besides na overview of the constructive processes, a summary of a significant number of accidents occurred during construction. I tis emphasized the lessons learned from these accidents. I tis also presented a summary of the dispositions contained in the Eurocodes related to the verification of safety during construction, including actions to consider and its quantification. Finally, a case of study is presented in wich, security in the construction phase assumed particular importance. About studies bridge – Quintanilha International Bridge – built by balanced cantilever method – there was a need to devise a set of external cables in order to ensure safety against the scenario of traveller fall of advances and their segment.N/

Interpretable Ensembles of Classifiers for Uncertain Data with Bioinformatics Applications

Data uncertainty remains a challenging issue in many applications, but few classification algorithms can effectively cope with it. An ensemble approach for uncertain categorical features has recently been proposed, achieving promising results. It consists in biasing the sampling of features for each model in an ensemble so that less uncertain features are more likely to be sampled. Here we extend this idea of biased sampling and propose two new approaches: one for selecting training instances for each model in an ensemble and another for sampling features to be considered when splitting a node in a Random Forest training. We applied these approaches to classify ageing-related genes and predict drugs' side effects based on uncertain features representing protein-protein and protein-chemical interactions. We show that ensembles based on our proposed approaches achieve better predictive performance. In particular, our proposed approaches improved the performance of a Random Forest based on the most sophisticated approach for handling uncertain data in ensembles of this kind. Furthermore, we propose two new approaches for interpreting an ensemble of Naive Bayes classifiers and analyse their results on our datasets of ageing-related genes and drug's side effects

Enzyme replacement therapy with galsulfase in 34 children younger than five years of age with MPS VI

Background: Mucopolysaccharidosis type VI (MPS VI) is a progressive, chronic and multisystem lysosomal storage disease with a wide disease spectrum. Clinical and biochemical improvements have been reported for MPS VI patients on enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) with rhASB (recombinant human arylsulfatase B; galsulfase, Naglazyme (R), BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.), making early diagnosis and intervention imperative for optimal patient outcomes. Few studies have included children younger than five years of age. This report describes 34 MPS VI patients that started treatment with galsulfase before five years of age.Methods: Data from patients who initiated treatment at <5 years of age were collected from patients' medical records. Baseline and follow-up assessments of common symptoms that led to diagnosis and that were used to evaluate disease progression and treatment efficacy were evaluated.Results: A significant negative correlation was seen with treatment with ERT and urinary GAG levels. of those with baseline and follow-up growth data, 47% remained on their pre-treatment growth curve or moved to a higher percentile after treatment. of the 9 patients with baseline and follow-up sleep studies, 5 remained unaffected and 1 patient initially with mild sleep apnea showed improvement. Data regarding cardiac, ophthalmic, central nervous system, hearing, surgical interventions and development are also reported. No patient discontinued treatment due to an adverse event and all that were treatment-emergent resolved.Conclusions: the prescribed dosage of 1 mg/kg IV weekly with galsulfase ERT is shown to be safe and effective in slowing and/or improving certain aspects of the disease, although patients should be closely monitored for complications associated with the natural history of the disease, especially cardiac valve involvement and spinal cord compression. A long-term follow-up investigation of this group of children will provide further information on the benefits of early treatment as well as disease progression and treatment efficacy and safety in this young patient population. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.ShireGenzymeBioMarinFiocruz MS, Inst Nacl Saude Mulher Crianca & Adolescente Fern, Ctr Genet Med, BR-22250020 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, BrazilUniv Fed Bahia, Serv Genet Med, Salvador, BA, BrazilHosp Albert Sabin, Fortaleza, Ceara, BrazilUniv Fed Mato Grosso do Sul, Fac Med, Campo Grande, MS USAUniv São Paulo, Inst Crianca, São Paulo, BrazilHosp Barao de Lucena, Recife, PE, BrazilUniv Fed Parana, Hosp Clin, BR-80060000 Curitiba, Parana, BrazilCtr Reabilitacao Infantil, Natal, RN, BrazilHosp Univ Maranhao, Sao Luis, MA, BrazilUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Ctr Referencia Erros Inatos Metab, São Paulo, SP, BrazilHosp São Paulo, Enzyme Replacement Therapy Serv, Hosp & Maternidade Celso Pierro, São Paulo, BrazilUniv Fed Rio Grande do Norte, HOSPED, Hosp Pediat Prof Heriberto Ferreira Bezerra, Natal, RN, BrazilUniv Fortaleza, Fortaleza, Ceara, BrazilUniv Fed Rio Grande do Norte, BR-59072970 Natal, RN, BrazilUniv Fed Triangulo Mineiro, Uberaba, MG, BrazilHosp Clin Acre, Rio Branco, AC, BrazilUniv Fed Espirito Santo, HUCAM, Vitoria, ES, BrazilUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Ctr Referencia Erros Inatos Metab, São Paulo, SP, BrazilHosp São Paulo, Enzyme Replacement Therapy Serv, Hosp & Maternidade Celso Pierro, São Paulo, BrazilWeb of Scienc

The Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment: Exploring Fundamental Symmetries of the Universe

The preponderance of matter over antimatter in the early Universe, the dynamics of the supernova bursts that produced the heavy elements necessary for life and whether protons eventually decay --- these mysteries at the forefront of particle physics and astrophysics are key to understanding the early evolution of our Universe, its current state and its eventual fate. The Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment (LBNE) represents an extensively developed plan for a world-class experiment dedicated to addressing these questions. LBNE is conceived around three central components: (1) a new, high-intensity neutrino source generated from a megawatt-class proton accelerator at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, (2) a near neutrino detector just downstream of the source, and (3) a massive liquid argon time-projection chamber deployed as a far detector deep underground at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. This facility, located at the site of the former Homestake Mine in Lead, South Dakota, is approximately 1,300 km from the neutrino source at Fermilab -- a distance (baseline) that delivers optimal sensitivity to neutrino charge-parity symmetry violation and mass ordering effects. This ambitious yet cost-effective design incorporates scalability and flexibility and can accommodate a variety of upgrades and contributions. With its exceptional combination of experimental configuration, technical capabilities, and potential for transformative discoveries, LBNE promises to be a vital facility for the field of particle physics worldwide, providing physicists from around the globe with opportunities to collaborate in a twenty to thirty year program of exciting science. In this document we provide a comprehensive overview of LBNE's scientific objectives, its place in the landscape of neutrino physics worldwide, the technologies it will incorporate and the capabilities it will possess.Comment: Major update of previous version. This is the reference document for LBNE science program and current status. Chapters 1, 3, and 9 provide a comprehensive overview of LBNE's scientific objectives, its place in the landscape of neutrino physics worldwide, the technologies it will incorporate and the capabilities it will possess. 288 pages, 116 figure