Climate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps: quantification of potential impacts and related modelling uncertainties

International audienceThis paper addresses two major challenges in climate change impact analysis on water resources systems: (i) incorporation of a large range of potential climate change scenarios and (ii) quantification of related modelling uncertainties. The methodology of climate change impact modelling is developed and illustrated through application to a hydropower plant in the Swiss Alps that uses the discharge of a highly glacierised catchment. The potential climate change impacts are analysed in terms of system performance for the control period (1961?1990) and for the future period (2070?2099) under a range of climate change scenarios. The system performance is simulated through a set of four model types, including the production of regional climate change scenarios based on global-mean warming scenarios, the corresponding discharge model, the model of glacier surface evolution and the hydropower management model. The modelling uncertainties inherent in each model type are characterised and quantified separately. The overall modelling uncertainty is simulated through Monte Carlo simulations of the system behaviour for the control and the future period. The results obtained for both periods lead to the conclusion that potential climate change has a statistically significant negative impact on the system performance

A conceptual glacio-hydrological model for high mountainous catchments

International audienceIn high mountainous catchments, the spatial precipitation and therefore the overall water balance is generally difficult to estimate. The present paper describes the structure and calibration of a semi-lumped conceptual glacio-hydrological model for the joint simulation of daily discharge and annual glacier mass balance that represents a better integrator of the water balance. The model has been developed for climate change impact studies and has therefore a parsimonious structure; it requires three input times series ? precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration ? and has 7 parameters to calibrate. A multi-signal approach considering daily discharge and ? if available ? annual glacier mass balance has been developed for the calibration of these parameters. The model has been calibrated for three different catchments in the Swiss Alps having glaciation rates between 37% and 52%. It simulates well the observed daily discharge, the hydrological regime and some basic glaciological features, such as the annual mass balance

Inondations urbaines : un indicateur géométrique caractéristique du comportement hydraulique du bâti

La prévision des inondations urbaines et de leur impact sur le milieu passe par la modélisation précise et lisible des flux inondants. Leur représentation est cependant rendue difficile par le caractère transitoire et multidirectionnel des écoulements, dans un milieu dont la géométrie est très irrégulière. Cet article traite plus spécifiquement du comportement du bâti africain vis à vis des écoulements, en situation inondante, et des lois de stockage et de vidange que l'on peut définir à différentes échelles représentatives de l'habitat : concession, bloc de concessions. Nous présentons trois propriétés du bâti nécessaires et suffisantes pour décrire le comportement hydraulique du milieu à ces échelles : sa pénétrabilité, sa stockabilité et sa transmissivité. L'étude du comportement hydraulique de l'objet bâti élémentaire, la concession, nous permet de relier ces propriétés à des caractéristiques géométriques de cet objet. Une approche agrégative conduit ensuite à définir un indicateur de la structure géométrique du bâti, l'HistoSeuil, équivalent à une densité d'ouvertures et caractéristique de la pénétrabilité du bâti. L'étude de sa pertinence géométrique, i.e. sa variabilité intra- et inter-quartiers a été réalisée dans le cas particulier de la ville de Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso) ; elle est basée sur le relevé systématique des ouvertures observables sur différentes façades de voiries de trois quartiers de types différents, (habitat individuel et spontané). Sa pertinence hydraulique, i.e. sa capacité à reproduire le comportement hydraulique moyen de l'objet urbain modélisé, est enfin abordée. Développée dans le contexte particulier de Ouagadougou, cette approche est généralisable à des configurations urbaines très diverses.Stormwater runoff generates one of the most critical natural risks in urban environments: impervious surfaces and high drainage network densities lead to frequent urban flooding events, with short process times and within small urban areas. In all parts of the world, urbanisation is growing, and urban flood hazards consequently occur more and more frequently. Examples of important flood damages suffered by urban populations are numerous, especially in tropical regions where the violence and rapidity of tropical storms often lead to an overloading of the drainage system and to the flooding of adjacent built-up areas. Prediction and evaluation of these damages require the determination of some important hydraulic characteristics of the flood, such as maximum water depth or flooding duration. Currently-used models are generally limited to checking the sewer system efficiency. Therefore new models are now expected to represent with accuracy and reliability the stormwater runoff, which can result from sewer system overloading. However, this kind of modelling is hard to carry out because of the geometric complexity of the urban media and because of the rapidity of urban storms and their associated flooding. Moreover, the modelling of the behaviour of the flooded built-up areas should sometimes be integrated into complete models of urban flooding, given their important influence on the hydrodynamics of the flood. However the geometric complexity of these built-up areas prevents us from a complete and accurate description of the different obstacles and water ways encompassed in such areas. Simplified descriptions at a larger scale are consequently to be found.This paper highlights the important physical characteristics that determine the hydraulic behaviour of every hydraulically-independent urban cell, and suggests a way to represent the exchange and storage laws of built-up areas at different scales: individual plots and blocks of plots. The study was performed in the particular case of Ouagadougou's areas. The hydraulic behaviour of every built-up area can be modelled with three important physical characteristics, the two first of which are related to the structure of the surrounding walls:- water perviousness : the ease with which the passing flood can enter or exit the plot. This is dependent upon the aperture density, which can vary according to the façade;- transmissivity: the ease with which water can pass through the plot. It depends on the perviousness of the different external or internal façades of the individual plot. If one façade is waterproof, the transmissivity becomes nil in the perpendicular direction;- storativity : determined with the storage capacity of an individual plot. It is a function of the internal surface area of the plot.These three characteristics are functions of height. Moreover, they are essential and sufficient to describe the behaviour of every basic or global urban object (plot, block of plots...). At the "block of plots" level, the transmissivity and storativity concepts are comparable to the hydraulic roughness and urban porosity concepts that have already been proposed in scientific papers (e.g., Braschi et al. 1991). These two characteristics are sufficient for modelling the hydraulic behaviour of every open urban medium. Nevertheless, some urban media are non-transmissive because of a high connection level between the different obstacles. In these cases the perviousness property is very useful for modelling the different exchanges between the built-up areas and the adjacent flooded roads. The residential urban areas of Ouagadougou, used as an illustration for this study (Figure 1), correspond to this case of partitioned urban areas. The structure of the Ouagadougou's residential districts is standard and is organised around the individual plot, a parcel shielding one or several families: the individual plot is isolated from other plots and from the roads by a surrounding wall that constitutes one of the elementary hydraulic objects of the urban environment. The evolution of the flood water depth in a plot adjacent to a flooded road, determined by equation 1, depends on its floodable surface Sc and on its perviousness. Its perviousness is defined by the geometric characteristics of the apertures present in the wall: the type of aperture, weir or orifice; its height, hs, its length, Ls, and its opening if an orifice, a. Measures of exchanges between roads and plots made during some flood events in Ouagadougou (Hingray 1999) showed that the classical discharge laws for weirs or trough orifices can be used to model these exchanges (equations 2, 3 and 4).We suggest a way to simulate the exchange and storage laws of these built-up areas at a larger scale: the block of plots. An aggregation approach enables us to define a structure indicator: " l'HistoSeuil " (Figure 2). It is based on the description of the lengths of weirs and apertures found in road façades, and is equivalent to an aperture density function. The exchange discharge between the block of plots and the flooded adjacent road can be computed with a simply convolution (equation 6) between this HistoSeuil and the reference discharge laws for broad-crested weirs (equations 7 and 8). The geometric relevance of the indicator is next discussed: it seems to be a relatively stable geometric characteristic of an urban area (Figure 3). This result is given by a systematic survey of the apertures observed in 24 road façades belonging to 3 different districts of Ouagadougou. The two first are traditional residential districts, more and less developed. The "Patte d'Oie" district is fairly old and was established in the 1970's (numerous well developed plots). The second one (Wemtenga 1) is a recent housing estate (1988) (numerous unfinished or empty plots). The final one (Wemtenga 2) is a very recent district of spontaneous development (disorganised built-up area structure). Furthermore, the hydraulic relevance of this indicator, its ability to reproduce the average hydraulic behaviour of a block of plots, is approached. Initial results seem to be positive. If both the hydraulic and geometric relevance of the structure indicator presented in this paper are validated by the additional work that we are carrying out at this present time, this approach may prove to be useful for the hydraulic modelling of built-up areas. Moreover the study of other types of built-up areas could lead to the determination of a hydraulic typology of urban areas. In particular, this study, performed in the case of Ouagadougou, a big city in a developing country, seems to be valid for every city where the built-up areas are highly partitioned

Prediction of climate change impacts on Alpine discharge regimes under A2 and B2 SRES emission scenarios for two future time periods (2020-2049, 2070-2099)

The present work analyzes the climate change impacts on the runoff regimes of mountainous catchments in the Swiss Alps having current glaciation rates between 0 and 50 %. The hydrological response of 11 catchments to a given climate scenario is simulated through a conceptual, reservoir-based precipitation-runoff transformation model called GSM-SOCONT (Schaefli, 2005). For the glacierized catchments, the glacier surface corresponding to this future scenario is updated through a conceptual glacier surface evolution model. The analyzed climate change scenarios were derived from 19 climate experiments obtained within the EU research project PRUDENCE (Christensen et al. 2002). They are the results of 9 state-to-the-art Regional Climate Models (RCMs) driven by three coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), respectively HadCM3/HadAM3H, ECHAM4/OPYC3 and ARPEGE. The two first families of climate change scenarios correspond to changes in seasonal temperatures and precipitations simulated for the period 2070-2099 under the two green house gas emission scenarios A2 and B2 defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (12 experiments are available for A2 and 7 for B2). From the 19 PRUDENCE experiments 19 climate changes scenarios were additionally developed for a transient period (2020-2049) corresponding in first approximation to a global warming scenario of +1°C

La prévision hydrométéorologique sur le bassin versant du Rhône en amont du Léman

The main goal of the 3(rd) Rhone Correction project is to improve the flood protection in the Upper Rhone River basin. In this context, the MINERVE project aims contributing to a better flow control during flood events, taking advantage from the multireservoirs system existing in the watershed. For this purpose, a hydrometeorological forecast model has been developed as well as a decision support tool for the hydropower plants preventive management

Complementarity of wind and solar power in North Africa: Potential for alleviating energy droughts and impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation

With growing gas and oil prices, electricity generation based on these fossil fuels is becoming increasingly expensive. Furthermore, the vision of natural gas as a transition fuel is subject to many constraints and uncertainties of economic, environmental, and geopolitical nature. Consequently, renewable energies such as solar and wind power are expected to reach new records of installed capacity over the upcoming years. Considering the above, North Africa is one of the regions with the largest renewable resource potential globally. While extensively studied in the literature, these resources remain underutilized. Thus, to contribute to their future successful deployment and integration with the power system, this study presents a spatial and temporal analysis of the nature of solar and wind resources over North Africa from the perspective of energy droughts. Both the frequency and maximal duration of energy droughts are addressed. Both aspects of renewables’ variable nature have been evaluated in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) context. The analysis considers the period between 1960 and 2020 based on hourly reanalysis data (i.e., near-surface shortwave irradiation, wind speed, and air temperature) and the Hurrel NAO index. The findings show an in-phase relationship between solar power and winter NAO index, particularly over the coastal regions in western North Africa and opposite patterns in its eastern part. For wind energy, the connection with NAO has a more zonal pattern, with negative correlations in the north and positive correlations in the south. Solar energy droughts dominate northern Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco, while wind energy droughts mainly occur in the Atlas Mountains range. On average, solar energy droughts tend not to exceed 2–3 consecutive days, with the longest extending for five days. Wind energy droughts can be as prolonged as 80 days (Atlas Mountains). Hybridizing solar and wind energy reduces the potential for energy droughts significantly. At the same time, the correlation between their occurrence and the NAO index remains low. These findings show the potential for substantial resilience to inter-annual climate variability, which could benefit the future stability of renewables-dominated power systems.Graphical abstrac

Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments

Future climate change projections are often derived from ensembles of simulations from multiple global circulation models using heuristic weighting schemes. This study provides a more rigorous justification for this by introducing a nested family of three simple analysis of variance frameworks. Statistical frameworks are essential in order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimate of the mean climate change response. The most general framework yields the “one model, one vote” weighting scheme often used in climate projection. However, a simpler additive framework is found to be preferable when the climate change response is not strongly model dependent. In such situations, the weighted multimodel mean may be interpreted as an estimate of the actual climate response, even in the presence of shared model biases. Statistical significance tests are derived to choose the most appropriate framework for specific multimodel ensemble data. The framework assumptions are explicit and can be checked using simple tests and graphical techniques. The frameworks can be used to test for evidence of nonzero climate response and to construct confidence intervals for the size of the response. The methodology is illustrated by application to North Atlantic storm track data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. Despite large variations in the historical storm tracks, the cyclone frequency climate change response is not found to be model dependent over most of the region. This gives high confidence in the response estimates. Statistically significant decreases in cyclone frequency are found on the flanks of the North Atlantic storm track and in the Mediterranean basin

Le partage de la ressource en eau sur la Durance en 2050 : vers une évolution du mode de gestion des grands ouvrages duranciens ?

Congrès SHF: Water Tensions in Europe and in the Mediterranean: water crisis by 2050?, Paris, FRA, 08-/10/2015 - 09/10/2015International audienceUne vision prospective de la gestion de l'eau du bassin de la Durance et des territoires alimentés par ses eaux à l'horizon 2050 a été élaborée, appuyée par une chaine de modèles incluant des représentations du climat, de la ressource naturelle, des demandes en eau et du fonctionnement des grands ouvrages hydrauliques (Serre-Ponçon, Castillon et Sainte-Croix), sous contraintes de respect des débits réservés, de cotes touristiques dans les retenues et de restitution d'eau stockée pour des usages en aval. Cet ensemble, validé en temps présent, a été alimenté par des projections climatiques et paramétré pour intégrer les évolutions du territoire décrites par des scénarios de développement socio-économique avec une hypothèse de conservation des règles de gestion actuelles. Les résultats suggèrent à l'horizon 2050 : une hausse de la température moyenne de l'air impactant l'hydrologie de montagne ; une évolution incertaine des précipitations ; une réduction des stocks de neige et une fonte avancée dans l'année qui induisent une réduction des débits au printemps ; une diminution de la ressource en eau en période estivale ; une diminution de la demande globale en eau à l'échelle du territoire, cette demande étant fortement conditionnée par les scénarios territoriaux élaborés ici ; la satisfaction des demandes en eau en aval des ouvrages considérées comme prioritaires, au détriment de la production d'énergie en hiver (flexibilité moindre en période de pointe) et du maintien de cotes touristiques en été ;une diminution de la production d'énergie due notamment à la réduction des apports en amont des ouvrages hydroélectriques