Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models

The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, paved the way for a new hybrid global climate governance architecture with both bottom-up and top-down elements. While governments can choose individual climate goals and actions, a global stocktake and a ratcheting-up mechanism have been put in place with the overall aim to ensure that collective efforts will prevent increasing adverse impacts of climate change. Integrated assessment models show that current combined climate commitments and policies of national governments fall short of keeping global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Although major greenhouse gas emitters, such as China, the European Union, India, the United States under the Biden administration, and several other countries, have made new pledges to take more ambitious climate action, it is highly uncertain where global climate policy is heading. Scenarios in line with long-term temperature targets typically assume a simplistic and hardly realistic level of harmonization of climate policies across countries. Against this backdrop, this article develops four archetypes for the further evolution of the global climate governance architecture and matches them with existing sets of scenarios developed by integrated assessment models. By these means, the article identifies knowledge gaps in the current scenario literature and discusses possible research avenues to explore the pre-conditions for successful coordination of national policies towards achieving the long-term target stipulated in the Paris Agreement

Results from the centers for disease control and prevention's predict the 2013-2014 Influenza Season Challenge

Background: Early insights into the timing of the start, peak, and intensity of the influenza season could be useful in planning influenza prevention and control activities. To encourage development and innovation in influenza forecasting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) organized a challenge to predict the 2013-14 Unites States influenza season. Methods: Challenge contestants were asked to forecast the start, peak, and intensity of the 2013-2014 influenza season at the national level and at any or all Health and Human Services (HHS) region level(s). The challenge ran from December 1, 2013-March 27, 2014; contestants were required to submit 9 biweekly forecasts at the national level to be eligible. The selection of the winner was based on expert evaluation of the methodology used to make the prediction and the accuracy of the prediction as judged against the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet). Results: Nine teams submitted 13 forecasts for all required milestones. The first forecast was due on December 2, 2013; 3/13 forecasts received correctly predicted the start of the influenza season within one week, 1/13 predicted the peak within 1 week, 3/13 predicted the peak ILINet percentage within 1 %, and 4/13 predicted the season duration within 1 week. For the prediction due on December 19, 2013, the number of forecasts that correctly forecasted the peak week increased to 2/13, the peak percentage to 6/13, and the duration of the season to 6/13. As the season progressed, the forecasts became more stable and were closer to the season milestones. Conclusion: Forecasting has become technically feasible, but further efforts are needed to improve forecast accuracy so that policy makers can reliably use these predictions. CDC and challenge contestants plan to build upon the methods developed during this contest to improve the accuracy of influenza forecasts. © 2016 The Author(s)

Assessing the quality of models of the ambient solar wind

In this paper we present an assessment of the status of models of the global Solar Wind in the inner heliosphere. We limit our discussion to the class of models designed to provide solar wind forecasts, excluding those designed for the purpose of testing physical processes in idealized configurations. In addition, we limit our discussion to modeling of the ‘ambient’ wind in the absence of coronal mass ejections. In this assessment we cover use of the models both in forecast mode and as tools for scientific research. We present a brief history of the development of these models, discussing the range of physical approximations in use. We discuss the limitations of the data inputs available to these models and its impact on their quality. We also discuss current model development trends

Using gradient boosting regression to improve ambient solar wind model predictions

Studying the ambient solar wind, a continuous pressure‐driven plasma flow emanating from our Sun, is an important component of space weather research. The ambient solar wind flows in interplanetary space determine how solar storms evolve through the heliosphere before reaching Earth, and especially during solar minimum are themselves a driver of activity in the Earth’s magnetic field. Accurately forecasting the ambient solar wind flow is therefore imperative to space weather awareness. Here we present a machine learning approach in which solutions from magnetic models of the solar corona are used to output the solar wind conditions near the Earth. The results are compared to observations and existing models in a comprehensive validation analysis, and the new model outperforms existing models in almost all measures. In addition, this approach offers a new perspective to discuss the role of different input data to ambient solar wind modeling, and what this tells us about the underlying physical processes. The final model discussed here represents an extremely fast, well‐validated and open‐source approach to the forecasting of ambient solar wind at Earth

Effects of Anacetrapib in Patients with Atherosclerotic Vascular Disease

BACKGROUND: Patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease remain at high risk for cardiovascular events despite effective statin-based treatment of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels. The inhibition of cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) by anacetrapib reduces LDL cholesterol levels and increases high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels. However, trials of other CETP inhibitors have shown neutral or adverse effects on cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving 30,449 adults with atherosclerotic vascular disease who were receiving intensive atorvastatin therapy and who had a mean LDL cholesterol level of 61 mg per deciliter (1.58 mmol per liter), a mean non-HDL cholesterol level of 92 mg per deciliter (2.38 mmol per liter), and a mean HDL cholesterol level of 40 mg per deciliter (1.03 mmol per liter). The patients were assigned to receive either 100 mg of anacetrapib once daily (15,225 patients) or matching placebo (15,224 patients). The primary outcome was the first major coronary event, a composite of coronary death, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization. RESULTS: During the median follow-up period of 4.1 years, the primary outcome occurred in significantly fewer patients in the anacetrapib group than in the placebo group (1640 of 15,225 patients [10.8%] vs. 1803 of 15,224 patients [11.8%]; rate ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.85 to 0.97; P=0.004). The relative difference in risk was similar across multiple prespecified subgroups. At the trial midpoint, the mean level of HDL cholesterol was higher by 43 mg per deciliter (1.12 mmol per liter) in the anacetrapib group than in the placebo group (a relative difference of 104%), and the mean level of non-HDL cholesterol was lower by 17 mg per deciliter (0.44 mmol per liter), a relative difference of -18%. There were no significant between-group differences in the risk of death, cancer, or other serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease who were receiving intensive statin therapy, the use of anacetrapib resulted in a lower incidence of major coronary events than the use of placebo. (Funded by Merck and others; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN48678192 ; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01252953 ; and EudraCT number, 2010-023467-18 .)

Early mobilisation in mechanically ventilated patients:A systematic integrative review of definitions and activities

From PubMed via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: received 2018-10-23, accepted 2018-12-11Publication status: epublishMechanically ventilated patients often develop muscle weakness post-intensive care admission. Current evidence suggests that early mobilisation of these patients can be an effective intervention in improving their outcomes. However, what constitutes early mobilisation in mechanically ventilated patients (EM-MV) remains unclear. We aimed to systematically explore the definitions and activity types of EM-MV in the literature. Whittemore and Knafl's framework guided this review. CINAHL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, ASSIA, and Cochrane Library were searched to capture studies from 2000 to 2018, combined with hand search of grey literature and reference lists of included studies. The Critical Appraisal Skills Programme tools were used to assess the methodological quality of included studies. Data extraction and quality assessment of studies were performed independently by each reviewer before coming together in sub-groups for discussion and agreement. An inductive and data-driven thematic analysis was undertaken on verbatim extracts of EM-MV definitions and activities in included studies. Seventy-six studies were included from which four major themes were inferred: (1) , (2) , (3) and (4) . The first theme indicates that EM-MV is either not fully defined in studies or when a definition is provided this is not standardised across studies. The remaining themes reflect the diversity of EM-MV activities which depends on patients' characteristics and ICU settings; the negotiated decision-making process between patients and staff; and their interdependent relationship during the implementation. This review highlights the absence of an agreed definition and on what constitutes early mobilisation in mechanically ventilated patients. To advance research and practice an agreed and shared definition is a pre-requisite

Nonhalogenated organic molecules from Laurencia algae

The marine red algae of the genus Laurencia have produced more 700 secondary metabolites and exhibited high molecular diversity and intriguing bioactivity. Since the halogenated structures have been comprehensively reviewed previously, this review, covering up to the end of 2012, mainly focuses on the source, structure elucidation, and bioactivity of nonhalogenated organic molecules from Laurencia spp. as well as the relationship between nonhalogenated and halogenated products. Overall, 173 new or new naturally occurring compounds with 58 skeletons, mainly including sesquiterpenes, diterpenes, triterpenes, and C15-acetogenins, are described.The marine red algae of the genus Laurencia have produced more 700 secondary metabolites and exhibited high molecular diversity and intriguing bioactivity. Since the halogenated structures have been comprehensively reviewed previously, this review, covering up to the end of 2012, mainly focuses on the source, structure elucidation, and bioactivity of nonhalogenated organic molecules from Laurencia spp. as well as the relationship between nonhalogenated and halogenated products. Overall, 173 new or new naturally occurring compounds with 58 skeletons, mainly including sesquiterpenes, diterpenes, triterpenes, and C-15-acetogenins, are described