Evaluating geographic imputation approaches for zip code level data: an application to a study of pediatric diabetes

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is increasing interest in the study of place effects on health, facilitated in part by geographic information systems. Incomplete or missing address information reduces geocoding success. Several geographic imputation methods have been suggested to overcome this limitation. Accuracy evaluation of these methods can be focused at the level of individuals and at higher group-levels (e.g., spatial distribution).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We evaluated the accuracy of eight geo-imputation methods for address allocation from ZIP codes to census tracts at the individual and group level. The spatial apportioning approaches underlying the imputation methods included four fixed (deterministic) and four random (stochastic) allocation methods using land area, total population, population under age 20, and race/ethnicity as weighting factors. Data included more than 2,000 geocoded cases of diabetes mellitus among youth aged 0-19 in four U.S. regions. The imputed distribution of cases across tracts was compared to the true distribution using a chi-squared statistic.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At the individual level, population-weighted (total or under age 20) fixed allocation showed the greatest level of accuracy, with correct census tract assignments averaging 30.01% across all regions, followed by the race/ethnicity-weighted random method (23.83%). The true distribution of cases across census tracts was that 58.2% of tracts exhibited no cases, 26.2% had one case, 9.5% had two cases, and less than 3% had three or more. This distribution was best captured by random allocation methods, with no significant differences (p-value > 0.90). However, significant differences in distributions based on fixed allocation methods were found (p-value < 0.0003).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Fixed imputation methods seemed to yield greatest accuracy at the individual level, suggesting use for studies on area-level environmental exposures. Fixed methods result in artificial clusters in single census tracts. For studies focusing on spatial distribution of disease, random methods seemed superior, as they most closely replicated the true spatial distribution. When selecting an imputation approach, researchers should consider carefully the study aims.</p

An evaluation of edge effects in nutritional accessibility and availability measures: a simulation study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This paper addresses the statistical use of accessibility and availability indices and the effect of study boundaries on these measures. The measures are evaluated via an extensive simulation based on cluster models for local outlet density. We define outlet to mean either food retail store (convenience store, supermarket, gas station) or restaurant (limited service or full service restaurants). We designed a simulation whereby a cluster outlet model is assumed in a large study window and an internal subset of that window is constructed. We performed simulations on various criteria including one scenario representing an urban area with 2000 outlets as well as a non-urban area simulated with only 300 outlets. A comparison is made between estimates obtained with the full study area and estimates using only the subset area. This allows the study of the effect of edge censoring on accessibility measures.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results suggest that considerable bias is found at the edges of study regions in particular for accessibility measures. Edge effects are smaller for availability measures (when not smoothed) and also for short range accessibility</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>It is recommended that any study utilizing these measures should correct for edge effects. The use of edge correction via guard areas is recommended and the avoidance of large range distance-based accessibility measures is also proposed.</p

Implications of 36Cl exposure ages from Skye, northwest Scotland for the timing of ice stream deglaciation and deglacial ice dynamics

The French national AMS facility ASTER (CEREGE, Aix en Provence) is supported by the INSU/CNRS, the ANR through the "Projets thématiques d’excellence" program for the "Equipements d’excellence" ASTER-CEREGE action, IRD and CEA. The authors would like to thank Shasta Marrero for helpful and informative discussion on the CRONUScalc online calculator. DS was supported by a SAGES studentship and fieldwork by funds from the QRA and BSG.Geochronological constraints on the deglaciation of former marine based ice streams provide information on the rates and modes by which marine based ice sheets have responded to external forcing factors such as climate change. This paper presents new 36Cl cosmic ray exposure dating from boulders located on two moraines (Glen Brittle and Loch Scavaig) in southern Skye, northwest Scotland. Ages from the Glen Brittle moraines constrain deglaciation of a major marine terminating ice stream, the Barra-Donegal Ice Stream that drained the former British-Irish Ice Sheet, depending on choice of production method and scaling model this occurred 19.9 ± 1.5–17.6 ± 1.3 ka ago. We compare this timing of deglaciation to existing geochronological data and changes in a variety of potential forcing factors constrained through proxy records and numerical models to determine what deglaciation age is most consistent with existing evidence. Another small section of moraine, the Scavaig moraine, is traced offshore through multibeam swath-bathymetry and interpreted as delimiting a later stillstand/readvance stage following ice stream deglaciation. Additional cosmic ray exposure dating from the onshore portion of this moraine indicate that it was deposited 16.3 ± 1.3–15.2 ± 0.9 ka ago. When calculated using the most up-to-date scaling scheme this time of deposition is, within uncertainty, the same as the timing of a widely identified readvance, the Wester Ross Readvance, observed elsewhere in northwest Scotland. This extends the area over which this readvance has potentially occurred, reinforcing the view that it was climatically forced.PostprintPeer reviewe

A Rossby whistle: a resonant basin mode observed in the Caribbean Sea

We show that an important source of coastal sea level variability around the Caribbean Sea is a resonant basin mode. The mode consists of a baroclinic Rossby wave which propagates westward across the basin and is rapidly returned to the east along the southern boundary as coastal shelf waves. Almost two wavelengths of the Rossby wave fit across the basin, and it has a period of 120 days. The porous boundary of the Caribbean Sea results in this mode exciting a mass exchange with the wider ocean, leading to a dominant mode of bottom pressure variability which is almost uniform over the Grenada, Venezuela, and Colombia basins and has a sharp spectral peak at 120 day period. As the Rossby waves have been shown to be excited by instability of the Caribbean Current, this resonant mode is dynamically equivalent to the operation of a whistle

Neighborhood level risk factors for type 1 diabetes in youth: the SEARCH case-control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>European ecologic studies suggest higher socioeconomic status is associated with higher incidence of type 1 diabetes. Using data from a case-control study of diabetes among racially/ethnically diverse youth in the United States (U.S.), we aimed to evaluate the independent impact of neighborhood characteristics on type 1 diabetes risk. Data were available for 507 youth with type 1 diabetes and 208 healthy controls aged 10-22 years recruited in South Carolina and Colorado in 2003-2006. Home addresses were used to identify Census tracts of residence. Neighborhood-level variables were obtained from 2000 U.S. Census. Multivariate generalized linear mixed models were applied.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Controlling for individual risk factors (age, gender, race/ethnicity, infant feeding, birth weight, maternal age, number of household residents, parental education, income, state), higher neighborhood household income (p = 0.005), proportion of population in managerial jobs (p = 0.02), with at least high school education (p = 0.005), working outside the county (p = 0.04) and vehicle ownership (p = 0.03) were each independently associated with increased odds of type 1 diabetes. Conversely, higher percent minority population (p = 0.0003), income from social security (p = 0.002), proportion of crowded households (0.0497) and poverty (p = 0.008) were associated with a decreased odds.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our study suggests that neighborhood characteristics related to greater affluence, occupation, and education are associated with higher type 1 diabetes risk. Further research is needed to understand mechanisms underlying the influence of neighborhood context.</p

Evaluating geographic variation in type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus incidence in youth in four US regions

We evaluated geographic variation of Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T1DM, T2DM) in four regions of the United States

Efficacy and safety of two neutralising monoclonal antibody therapies, sotrovimab and BRII-196 plus BRII-198, for adults hospitalised with COVID-19 (TICO): a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of two neutralising monoclonal antibody therapies (sotrovimab [Vir Biotechnology and GlaxoSmithKline] and BRII-196 plus BRII-198 [Brii Biosciences]) for adults admitted to hospital for COVID-19 (hereafter referred to as hospitalised) with COVID-19. METHODS: In this multinational, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, clinical trial (Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 [TICO]), adults (aged ≥18 years) hospitalised with COVID-19 at 43 hospitals in the USA, Denmark, Switzerland, and Poland were recruited. Patients were eligible if they had laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 symptoms for up to 12 days. Using a web-based application, participants were randomly assigned (2:1:2:1), stratified by trial site pharmacy, to sotrovimab 500 mg, matching placebo for sotrovimab, BRII-196 1000 mg plus BRII-198 1000 mg, or matching placebo for BRII-196 plus BRII-198, in addition to standard of care. Each study product was administered as a single dose given intravenously over 60 min. The concurrent placebo groups were pooled for analyses. The primary outcome was time to sustained clinical recovery, defined as discharge from the hospital to home and remaining at home for 14 consecutive days, up to day 90 after randomisation. Interim futility analyses were based on two seven-category ordinal outcome scales on day 5 that measured pulmonary status and extrapulmonary complications of COVID-19. The safety outcome was a composite of death, serious adverse events, incident organ failure, and serious coinfection up to day 90 after randomisation. Efficacy and safety outcomes were assessed in the modified intention-to-treat population, defined as all patients randomly assigned to treatment who started the study infusion. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04501978. FINDINGS: Between Dec 16, 2020, and March 1, 2021, 546 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to sotrovimab (n=184), BRII-196 plus BRII-198 (n=183), or placebo (n=179), of whom 536 received part or all of their assigned study drug (sotrovimab n=182, BRII-196 plus BRII-198 n=176, or placebo n=178; median age of 60 years [IQR 50-72], 228 [43%] patients were female and 308 [57%] were male). At this point, enrolment was halted on the basis of the interim futility analysis. At day 5, neither the sotrovimab group nor the BRII-196 plus BRII-198 group had significantly higher odds of more favourable outcomes than the placebo group on either the pulmonary scale (adjusted odds ratio sotrovimab 1·07 [95% CI 0·74-1·56]; BRII-196 plus BRII-198 0·98 [95% CI 0·67-1·43]) or the pulmonary-plus complications scale (sotrovimab 1·08 [0·74-1·58]; BRII-196 plus BRII-198 1·00 [0·68-1·46]). By day 90, sustained clinical recovery was seen in 151 (85%) patients in the placebo group compared with 160 (88%) in the sotrovimab group (adjusted rate ratio 1·12 [95% CI 0·91-1·37]) and 155 (88%) in the BRII-196 plus BRII-198 group (1·08 [0·88-1·32]). The composite safety outcome up to day 90 was met by 48 (27%) patients in the placebo group, 42 (23%) in the sotrovimab group, and 45 (26%) in the BRII-196 plus BRII-198 group. 13 (7%) patients in the placebo group, 14 (8%) in the sotrovimab group, and 15 (9%) in the BRII-196 plus BRII-198 group died up to day 90. INTERPRETATION: Neither sotrovimab nor BRII-196 plus BRII-198 showed efficacy for improving clinical outcomes among adults hospitalised with COVID-19. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health and Operation Warp Speed

Non-Standard Errors

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants

Measurement of the Positive Muon Anomalous Magnetic Moment to 0.46 ppm

We present the first results of the Fermilab Muon g-2 Experiment for the positive muon magnetic anomaly $a_\mu \equiv (g_\mu-2)/2$. The anomaly is determined from the precision measurements of two angular frequencies. Intensity variation of high-energy positrons from muon decays directly encodes the difference frequency $\omega_a$ between the spin-precession and cyclotron frequencies for polarized muons in a magnetic storage ring. The storage ring magnetic field is measured using nuclear magnetic resonance probes calibrated in terms of the equivalent proton spin precession frequency ${\tilde{\omega}'^{}_p}$ in a spherical water sample at 34.7$^{\circ}$C. The ratio $\omega_a / {\tilde{\omega}'^{}_p}$, together with known fundamental constants, determines $a_\mu({\rm FNAL}) = 116\,592\,040(54)\times 10^{-11}$ (0.46\,ppm). The result is 3.3 standard deviations greater than the standard model prediction and is in excellent agreement with the previous Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) E821 measurement. After combination with previous measurements of both $\mu^+$ and $\mu^-$, the new experimental average of $a_\mu({\rm Exp}) = 116\,592\,061(41)\times 10^{-11}$ (0.35\,ppm) increases the tension between experiment and theory to 4.2 standard deviationsComment: 10 pages; 4 figure