Updated Model of the Solar Energetic Proton Environment in Space

The Solar Accumulated and Peak Proton and Heavy Ion Radiation Environment (SAPPHIRE) model provides environment specification outputs for all aspects of the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) environment. The model is based upon a thoroughly cleaned and carefully processed data set. Herein the evolution of the solar proton model is discussed with comparisons to other models and data. This paper discusses the construction of the underlying data set, the modelling methodology, optimisation of fitted flux distributions and extrapolation of model outputs to cover a range of proton energies from 0.1 MeV to 1 GeV. The model provides outputs in terms of mission cumulative fluence, maximum event fluence and peak flux for both solar maximum and solar minimum periods. A new method for describing maximum event fluence and peak flux outputs in terms of 1-in-x-year SPEs is also described. SAPPHIRE proton model outputs are compared with previous models including CREME96, ESP-PSYCHIC and the JPL model. Low energy outputs are compared to SEP data from ACE/EPAM whilst high energy outputs are compared to a new model based on GLEs detected by Neutron Monitors (NMs).Comment: 37 pages, 17 figure

Extreme internal charging currents in medium Earth orbit: Analysis of SURF plate currents on Giove-A

Relativistic electrons can penetrate spacecraft shielding and can damage satellite components. Spacecraft in medium Earth orbit pass through the heart of the outer radiation belt and may be exposed to large fluxes of relativistic electrons, particularly during extreme space weather events. In this study we perform an extreme value analysis of the daily average internal charging currents at three different shielding depths in medium Earth orbit as a function of L∗ and along the orbit path. We use data from the SURF instrument on board the European Space Agency's Giove-A spacecraft from December 2005 to January 2016. The top, middle, and bottom plates of this instrument respond to electrons with energies >500 keV, >700 keV, and >1.1 MeV, respectively. The 1 in 10 year daily average top plate current decreases with increasing L∗ ranging from 1.0 pA cm−2 at L∗=4.75 to 0.03 pA cm−2 at L∗=7.0. The 1 in 100 year daily average top plate current is a factor of 1.2 to 1.8 larger than the corresponding 1 in 10 year current. The 1 in 10 year daily average middle and bottom plate currents also decrease with increasing L∗ ranging from 0.4 pA cm−2 at L∗=4.75 to 0.01 pA cm−2 at L∗=7.0. The 1 in 100 year daily average middle and bottom plate currents are a factor of 1.2 to 2.7 larger than the corresponding 1 in 10 year currents. Averaged along the orbit path the 1 in 10 year daily average top, middle, and bottom plate currents are 0.22, 0.094, and 0.094 pA cm−2, respectively

SPENVIS Implementation of End-of-Life Solar Cell Calculations Using the Displacement Damage Dose Methodology

This paper presents a method for using the SPENVIS on-line computational suite to implement the displacement damage dose (D(sub d)) methodology for calculating end-of-life (EOL) solar cell performance for a specific space mission. This paper builds on our previous work that has validated the D(sub d) methodology against both measured space data [1,2] and calculations performed using the equivalent fluence methodology developed by NASA JPL [3]. For several years, the space solar community has considered general implementation of the D(sub d) method, but no computer program exists to enable this implementation. In a collaborative effort, NRL, NASA and OAI have produced the Solar Array Verification and Analysis Tool (SAVANT) under NASA funding, but this program has not progressed beyond the beta-stage [4]. The SPENVIS suite with the Multi Layered Shielding Simulation Software (MULASSIS) contains all of the necessary components to implement the Dd methodology in a format complementary to that of SAVANT [5]. NRL is currently working with ESA and BIRA to include the Dd method of solar cell EOL calculations as an integral part of SPENVIS. This paper describes how this can be accomplished

Solar Cell Degradation due to Proton Belt Enhancements During Electric Orbit Raising to GEO

The recent introduction of all‐electric propulsion on geosynchronous satellites enables lower‐cost access to space by replacing chemical propellant. However, the time period required to initially raise the satellite to geostationary orbit (GEO) is around 200 days. During this time the satellite can be exposed to dynamic increases in trapped flux which are challenging to model. To understand the potential penalty of this new technique in terms of radiation exposure, the influence of several key parameters on solar cell degradation during the electric orbit raising period has been investigated. This is achieved by calculating the accumulation of non‐ionising dose through time for a range of approaches. We demonstrate the changes in degradation caused by launching during a long‐lived (100s of days) enhancement in MeV trapped proton flux for three different electric orbit raising scenarios and three different thicknesses of coverglass. Results show that launching in an active environment can increase solar cell degradation due to trapped protons by ~5% before start of service compared with a quiet environment. The crucial energy range for such enhancements in proton flux is 3‐10MeV (depending on shielding). Further changes of a few percent can occur between different trajectories, or when a 50μm change in coverglass thickness is applied

Very high energy proton peak flux model

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) pose a serious radiation hazard to spacecraft and astronauts. The highest energy SEPs are a significant threat even in heavily shielded applications. We present a new probabilistic model of very high energy differential peak proton fluxes. The model is based on GOES/HEPAD observations between 1986 and 2018, i.e., covering very nearly three complete solar cycles. The SEP event list for the model was defined using a statistical criterion derived by setting the possibility of false detection of an event to 1%. The peak flux distributions were calculated for the interpolated energies 405 MeV, 500 MeV and 620 MeV, and modelled with exponentially cut off power law functions. The HEPAD data were cleaned and corrected using a "bow-tie" method which is based on the response functions of the HEPAD channels P8-P10 found in the instrument calibration reports. The results of the model are available to the Space Weather community as a web-based tool at the ESA's Space Situational Awareness Programme Space Weather Service Network

Two solar proton fluence models based on ground level enhancement observations

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) constitute an important component of the radiation environment in interplanetary space. Accurate modeling of SEP events is crucial for the mitigation of radiation hazards in spacecraft design. In this study we present two new statistical models of high energy solar proton fluences based on ground level enhancement (GLE) observations during solar cycles 19–24. As the basis of our modeling, we utilize a four parameter double power law function (known as the Band function) fits to integral GLE fluence spectra in rigidity. In the first model, the integral and differential fluences for protons with energies between 10 MeV and 1 GeV are calculated using the fits, and the distributions of the fluences at certain energies are modeled with an exponentially cut-off power law function. In the second model, we use a more advanced methodology: by investigating the distributions and relationships of the spectral fit parameters we find that they can be modeled as two independent and two dependent variables. Therefore, instead of modeling the fluences separately at different energies, we can model the shape of the fluence spectrum. We present examples of modeling results and show that the two methodologies agree well except for a short mission duration (1 year) at low confidence level. We also show that there is a reasonable agreement between our models and three well-known solar proton models (JPL, ESP and SEPEM), despite the differences in both the modeling methodologies and the data used to construct the models.</p

Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS

There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. [...] advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun-Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 hrs ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4) on developing a comprehensive specification of space climate, including the characterization of extreme space storms to guide resilient and robust engineering of technological infrastructures. The roadmap clusters its implementation recommendations by formulating three action pathways, and outlines needed instrumentation and research programs and infrastructure for each of these. [...]Comment: In press for Advances of Space Research: an international roadmap on the science of space weather, commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS (63 pages and 4 figures

Toward interplanetary space weather: Strategies for manned missions to Mars

Copyright © 2005 American Geophysical Union (AGU)Analysis of the interplanetary space weather environment will contribute to reducing uncertainties and assuring crew radiation safety